Treasury prices rose overnight with better demand from Asian investors amid weakness in equites, and bonds were further supported following the Bank of England meeting, in which the central bank chose to leave policy unchanged while acknowledging weakness in wage growth and downside risks growth. Almost all Asian equity markets closed lower today, and European markets are slightly higher. There are no major headlines driving activity in either direction today, and S&P 500 futures are currently down 2 points.  A Politico article citing “multiple senior GOP sources” suggests that Mitch McConnell and Paul Ryan are working behind the scenes to pass a “clean” debt ceiling increase that would rely on moderate Republicans and Democrats to ensure passage. Many Republicans in both chambers of Congress are calling for spending cuts or fiscal reforms to be tied to any debt ceiling agreement, similar to what occurred in 2011, but Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin and other White House officials are imploring Congress to raise the debt limit with no strings attached by the end of September.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

Indicators

DateTimeEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
07/31/201709:45Chicago Purchasing ManagerJul6058.965.7
07/31/201710:00Pending Home Sales MoMJun1.00%1.50%-0.80%-0.70%
07/31/201710:00Pending Home Sales NSA YoYJun0.70%0.50%0.70%
07/31/201710:30Dallas Fed Manf. ActivityJul1316.815
08/01/201708:30Personal IncomeJun0.40%0.00%0.40%0.30%
08/01/201708:30Personal SpendingJun0.10%0.10%0.10%0.20%
08/01/201708:30Real Personal SpendingJun0.10%0.00%0.10%0.20%
08/01/201708:30PCE Deflator MoMJun0.00%0.00%-0.10%0.00%
08/01/201708:30PCE Deflator YoYJun1.30%1.40%1.40%1.50%
08/01/201708:30PCE Core MoMJun0.10%0.10%0.10%
08/01/201708:30PCE Core YoYJun1.40%1.50%1.40%1.50%
08/01/201709:45Markit US Manufacturing PMIJul F53.253.353.2
08/01/201710:00ISM ManufacturingJul56.556.357.8
08/01/201710:00ISM Prices PaidJul55.86255
08/01/201710:00ISM New OrdersJul60.463.5
08/01/201710:00ISM EmploymentJul55.257.2
08/01/201710:00Construction Spending MoMJun0.40%-1.30%0.00%0.30%
08/01/2017Wards Total Vehicle SalesJul16.80m16.69m16.41m16.59m
08/01/2017Wards Domestic Vehicle SalesJul13.10m12.96m12.79m12.96m
08/02/201707:00MBA Mortgage Applications28-Jul-2.80%0.40%
08/02/201708:15ADP Employment ChangeJul190k178k158k191k
08/03/201707:30Challenger Job Cuts YoYJul-37.60%-19.30%
08/03/201708:30Initial Jobless Claims29-Jul243k240k244k245k
08/03/201708:30Continuing Claims22-Jul1958k1968k1964k1965k
08/03/201709:45Bloomberg Consumer Comfort30-Jul49.648.6
08/03/201709:45Markit US Services PMIJul F54.254.754.2
08/03/201709:45Markit US Composite PMIJul F54.654.2
08/03/201710:00ISM Non-Manf. CompositeJul56.953.957.4
08/03/201710:00Factory OrdersJun3.00%3.00%-0.80%-0.30%
08/03/201710:00Factory Orders Ex TransJun-0.20%-0.30%-0.10%
08/03/201710:00Durable Goods OrdersJun F0.00%6.40%6.50%
08/03/201710:00Durables Ex TransportationJun F0.10%0.20%
08/03/201710:00Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex AirJun F0.00%-0.10%
08/03/201710:00Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex AirJun F0.10%0.20%
08/04/201708:30Change in Nonfarm PayrollsJul180k222k
08/04/201708:30Two-Month Payroll Net RevisionJul
08/04/201708:30Change in Private PayrollsJul180k187k
08/04/201708:30Change in Manufact. PayrollsJul5k1k
08/04/201708:30Unemployment RateJul4.30%4.40%
08/04/201708:30Average Hourly Earnings MoMJul0.30%0.20%
08/04/201708:30Average Hourly Earnings YoYJul2.40%2.50%
08/04/201708:30Average Weekly Hours All EmployeesJul34.534.5
08/04/201708:30Labor Force Participation RateJul62.80%
08/04/201708:30Underemployment RateJul8.60%
08/04/201708:30Trade BalanceJun-$44.5b-$46.5b