Treasury prices are unchanged to slightly lower on quiet morning in the markets. Most major global equity indices are slightly lower today, including S&P 500 futures. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index bounced back above 105 in July after four consecutive monthly declines. Of the 10 survey components, seven posted increases versus the prior month. Jim Bullard (St. Louis Fed) and Neel Kashkari (Minneapolis Fed) spoke at separate events yesterday, and neither veered much from the expected script. Both are on the more dovish end of the spectrum and expressed concern toward the current inflation trend, particularly as it relates to further rate hikes. At the same time, Bullard said he is “ready to get started in September” with balance sheet reduction, and Kashkari said he doesn’t think that shrinking the balance sheet at the pace that has been announced will have a negative impact overall inflation and wage growth.
Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
Indicators
| Date | Time | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07/2017 | 15:00 | Consumer Credit | Jun | $15.750b | $12.397b | $18.410b | $18.285b |
| 08/08/2017 | 06:00 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | Jul | 103.5 | 105.2 | 103.6 | — |
| 08/08/2017 | 10:00 | JOLTS Job Openings | Jun | 5750 | 6163 | 5666 | 5702 |
| 08/09/2017 | 07:00 | MBA Mortgage Applications | 04-Aug | — | — | -2.80% | — |
| 08/09/2017 | 08:30 | Nonfarm Productivity | 2Q P | 0.70% | — | 0.00% | — |
| 08/09/2017 | 08:30 | Unit Labor Costs | 2Q P | 1.10% | — | 2.20% | — |
| 08/09/2017 | 10:00 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | Jun | 0.00% | — | -0.50% | — |
| 08/09/2017 | 10:00 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | Jun F | 0.60% | — | 0.60% | — |
| 08/10/2017 | 08:30 | Initial Jobless Claims | 05-Aug | 240k | — | 240k | — |
| 08/10/2017 | 08:30 | Continuing Claims | 29-Jul | 1960k | — | 1968k | — |
| 08/10/2017 | 08:30 | PPI Final Demand MoM | Jul | 0.10% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 08/10/2017 | 08:30 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | Jul | 0.20% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 08/10/2017 | 08:30 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | Jul | 0.20% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 08/10/2017 | 08:30 | PPI Final Demand YoY | Jul | 2.20% | — | 2.00% | — |
| 08/10/2017 | 08:30 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | Jul | 2.10% | — | 1.90% | — |
| 08/10/2017 | 08:30 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | Jul | — | — | 2.00% | — |
| 08/10/2017 | 09:45 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | 06-Aug | — | — | 49.6 | — |
| 08/10/2017 | 14:00 | Monthly Budget Statement | Jul | -$54.0b | — | -$90.2b | — |
| 08/11/2017 | 08:30 | CPI MoM | Jul | 0.20% | — | 0.00% | — |
| 08/11/2017 | 08:30 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | Jul | 0.20% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 08/11/2017 | 08:30 | CPI YoY | Jul | 1.80% | — | 1.60% | — |
| 08/11/2017 | 08:30 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | Jul | 1.70% | — | 1.70% | — |
| 08/11/2017 | 08:30 | CPI Core Index SA | Jul | 251.96 | — | 251.627 | — |
| 08/11/2017 | 08:30 | CPI Index NSA | Jul | 244.932 | — | 244.955 | — |
| 08/11/2017 | 08:30 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | Jul | — | — | 1.10% | 1.20% |
| 08/11/2017 | 08:30 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | Jul | — | — | 0.80% | 0.90% |