Treasury prices are unchanged to slightly lower on quiet morning in the markets. Most major global equity indices are slightly lower today, including S&P 500 futures.  The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index bounced back above 105 in July after four consecutive monthly declines. Of the 10 survey components, seven posted increases versus the prior month.  Jim Bullard (St. Louis Fed) and Neel Kashkari (Minneapolis Fed) spoke at separate events yesterday, and neither veered much from the expected script. Both are on the more dovish end of the spectrum and expressed concern toward the current inflation trend, particularly as it relates to further rate hikes. At the same time, Bullard said he is “ready to get started in September” with balance sheet reduction, and Kashkari said he doesn’t think that shrinking the balance sheet at the pace that has been announced will have a negative impact overall inflation and wage growth.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group


08/07/201715:00Consumer CreditJun$15.750b$12.397b$18.410b$18.285b
08/08/201706:00NFIB Small Business OptimismJul103.5105.2103.6
08/08/201710:00JOLTS Job OpeningsJun5750616356665702
08/09/201707:00MBA Mortgage Applications04-Aug-2.80%
08/09/201708:30Nonfarm Productivity2Q P0.70%0.00%
08/09/201708:30Unit Labor Costs2Q P1.10%2.20%
08/09/201710:00Wholesale Trade Sales MoMJun0.00%-0.50%
08/09/201710:00Wholesale Inventories MoMJun F0.60%0.60%
08/10/201708:30Initial Jobless Claims05-Aug240k240k
08/10/201708:30Continuing Claims29-Jul1960k1968k
08/10/201708:30PPI Final Demand MoMJul0.10%0.10%
08/10/201708:30PPI Ex Food and Energy MoMJul0.20%0.10%
08/10/201708:30PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoMJul0.20%0.20%
08/10/201708:30PPI Final Demand YoYJul2.20%2.00%
08/10/201708:30PPI Ex Food and Energy YoYJul2.10%1.90%
08/10/201708:30PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoYJul2.00%
08/10/201709:45Bloomberg Consumer Comfort06-Aug49.6
08/10/201714:00Monthly Budget StatementJul-$54.0b-$90.2b
08/11/201708:30CPI MoMJul0.20%0.00%
08/11/201708:30CPI Ex Food and Energy MoMJul0.20%0.10%
08/11/201708:30CPI YoYJul1.80%1.60%
08/11/201708:30CPI Ex Food and Energy YoYJul1.70%1.70%
08/11/201708:30CPI Core Index SAJul251.96251.627
08/11/201708:30CPI Index NSAJul244.932244.955
08/11/201708:30Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoYJul1.10%1.20%
08/11/201708:30Real Avg Hourly Earning YoYJul0.80%0.90%