Treasury prices are drifting lower on another quiet morning in the broad markets. Global equity markets are mixed (but little changed in either direction), and S&P 500 futures are just slightly higher to begin the day. On the political front, recent reports suggest tax reform will likely get pushed to 2018 given the effort that will be required to get the budget and debt ceiling bills passed. The ADP employment report suggests private payrolls added 178,000 jobs in July versus expectations of 190,000, but the prior month was revised higher by 33,000 jobs. The July jobs report will be released on Friday, and nonfarm payrolls are expected to add 180,000 jobs.
Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
Indicators
| Date | Time | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/31/2017 | 08:45 | Chicago Purchasing Manager | Jul | 60 | 58.9 | 65.7 | — |
| 07/31/2017 | 09:00 | Pending Home Sales MoM | Jun | 1.00% | 1.50% | -0.80% | -0.70% |
| 07/31/2017 | 09:00 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | Jun | — | 0.70% | 0.50% | 0.70% |
| 07/31/2017 | 09:30 | Dallas Fed Manf. Activity | Jul | 13 | 16.8 | 15 | — |
| 08/01/2017 | 07:30 | Personal Income | Jun | 0.40% | 0.00% | 0.40% | 0.30% |
| 08/01/2017 | 07:30 | Personal Spending | Jun | 0.10% | 0.10% | 0.10% | 0.20% |
| 08/01/2017 | 07:30 | Real Personal Spending | Jun | 0.10% | 0.00% | 0.10% | 0.20% |
| 08/01/2017 | 07:30 | PCE Deflator MoM | Jun | 0.00% | 0.00% | -0.10% | 0.00% |
| 08/01/2017 | 07:30 | PCE Deflator YoY | Jun | 1.30% | 1.40% | 1.40% | 1.50% |
| 08/01/2017 | 07:30 | PCE Core MoM | Jun | 0.10% | 0.10% | 0.10% | — |
| 08/01/2017 | 07:30 | PCE Core YoY | Jun | 1.40% | 1.50% | 1.40% | 1.50% |
| 08/01/2017 | 08:45 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | Jul F | 53.2 | 53.3 | 53.2 | — |
| 08/01/2017 | 09:00 | ISM Manufacturing | Jul | 56.4 | 56.3 | 57.8 | — |
| 08/01/2017 | 09:00 | ISM Prices Paid | Jul | 55.8 | 62 | 55 | — |
| 08/01/2017 | 09:00 | ISM New Orders | Jul | — | 60.4 | 63.5 | — |
| 08/01/2017 | 09:00 | ISM Employment | Jul | — | 55.2 | 57.2 | — |
| 08/01/2017 | 09:00 | Construction Spending MoM | Jun | 0.40% | -1.30% | 0.00% | 0.30% |
| 08/01/2017 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | Jul | 16.80m | 16.69m | 16.41m | 16.59m | |
| 08/01/2017 | Wards Domestic Vehicle Sales | Jul | 13.10m | 12.96m | 12.79m | 12.96m | |
| 08/02/2017 | 06:00 | MBA Mortgage Applications | 28-Jul | — | -2.80% | 0.40% | — |
| 08/02/2017 | 07:15 | ADP Employment Change | Jul | 190k | 178k | 158k | 191k |
| 08/03/2017 | 06:30 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | Jul | — | — | -19.30% | — |
| 08/03/2017 | 07:30 | Initial Jobless Claims | 29-Jul | 243k | — | 244k | — |
| 08/03/2017 | 07:30 | Continuing Claims | 22-Jul | 1958k | — | 1964k | — |
| 08/03/2017 | 08:45 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | 30-Jul | — | — | 48.6 | — |
| 08/03/2017 | 08:45 | Markit US Services PMI | Jul F | 54.2 | — | 54.2 | — |
| 08/03/2017 | 08:45 | Markit US Composite PMI | Jul F | — | — | 54.2 | — |
| 08/03/2017 | 09:00 | ISM Non-Manf. Composite | Jul | 56.9 | — | 57.4 | — |
| 08/03/2017 | 09:00 | Factory Orders | Jun | 3.00% | — | -0.80% | — |
| 08/03/2017 | 09:00 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | Jun | — | — | -0.30% | — |
| 08/03/2017 | 09:00 | Durable Goods Orders | Jun F | 0.00% | — | 6.50% | — |
| 08/03/2017 | 09:00 | Durables Ex Transportation | Jun F | — | — | 0.20% | — |
| 08/03/2017 | 09:00 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | Jun F | — | — | -0.10% | — |
| 08/03/2017 | 09:00 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | Jun F | — | — | 0.20% | — |
| 08/04/2017 | 07:30 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | Jul | 180k | — | 222k | — |
| 08/04/2017 | 07:30 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | Jul | — | — | — | — |
| 08/04/2017 | 07:30 | Change in Private Payrolls | Jul | 180k | — | 187k | — |
| 08/04/2017 | 07:30 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | Jul | 5k | — | 1k | — |
| 08/04/2017 | 07:30 | Unemployment Rate | Jul | 4.30% | — | 4.40% | — |
| 08/04/2017 | 07:30 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | Jul | 0.30% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 08/04/2017 | 07:30 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | Jul | 2.40% | — | 2.50% | — |
| 08/04/2017 | 07:30 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | Jul | 34.5 | — | 34.5 | — |
| 08/04/2017 | 07:30 | Labor Force Participation Rate | Jul | — | — | 62.80% | — |
| 08/04/2017 | 07:30 | Underemployment Rate | Jul | — | — | 8.60% | — |
| 08/04/2017 | 07:30 | Trade Balance | Jun | -$44.5b | — | -$46.5b | — |