by ALM First | Oct 4, 2021 | Monthly Market Commentary
ECONOMIC UPDATE U.S. and European central banks appear to have begun the gradual shift to policy normalizationA government shutdown was averted on September 30, but the more critical debt ceiling looms in the coming weeksThe updated Fed “dots” reveal a growing divide... by ALM First | Sep 3, 2021 | Monthly Market Commentary
ECONOMIC UPDATE Fixed income markets remain highly sensitive to expected monetary policy shifts given the heavy presence of the Fed and other major central banksFed Chair Powell did not mimic the more hawkish rhetoric of his regional Fed bank colleagues in his Jackson... by ALM First | Aug 4, 2021 | Monthly Market Commentary
ECONOMIC UPDATE The recent rally in Treasuries fueled some questions regarding the strength of the current recovery, particularly with COVID-19 back atop headlinesCurrent economic fundamentals remain sound, and consumer and corporate balance sheets are in relatively... by ALM First | Jul 7, 2021 | Monthly Market Commentary
ECONOMIC UPDATE Now past the halfway point of 2021, have we breached peak economic growth for the cycle?Fueled by extraordinary fiscal and monetary policy support, personal spending has been strong in 2021, and consumer balance sheets appear well positioned to... by ALM First | Jun 3, 2021 | Monthly Market Commentary
ECONOMIC UPDATE The second quarter has proven calmer for financial markets relative to Q1The April CPI report showed the biggest monthly gain in core prices since 1981, driven by large increases in prices for used cars, airfare, and lodgingThe “transitory vs.... by ALM First | May 5, 2021 | Monthly Market Commentary
ECONOMIC UPDATE High economic optimism and accommodative monetary and fiscal policy continue to boost risk appetite in U.S. financial marketsThe first estimate of Q1 GDP showed 6.4% growth, leaving the U.S. economy less than 1% below Q4 2019 levels in real GDP... by ALM First | Apr 5, 2021 | Monthly Market Commentary
ECONOMIC UPDATE High economic optimism and more fiscal stimulus contributed to further curve steepening in the Treasury market in MarchEconomist estimates for 2021 growth and consumption are well above long-run trends, and recent measures of restaurant activity and... by ALM First | Mar 4, 2021 | Monthly Market Commentary
ECONOMIC UPDATE A combination of factors, including inflation worries, contributed to a sharp and sudden steepening of the yield curve in FebruaryRecent COVID trends and economic data have improved, fueling general market optimismSome feel that the bond market is... by ALM First | Feb 3, 2021 | Monthly Market Commentary
ECONOMIC UPDATE A new White House, but the issue remains the same – dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic There were positive trends on the virus front in January, including reduction in the number of people hospitalized for COVID in the United StatesFed Chair Powell... by ALM First | Jan 6, 2021 | Monthly Market Commentary
ECONOMIC UPDATE While vaccine success has brightened the 2021 economic outlook, the first quarter is less certain amid surging cases and renewed lockdownsThe labor market has recovered approximately 60% of lost jobs since the pandemic began, and a potential rise in... by ALM First | Dec 3, 2020 | Monthly Market Commentary
ECONOMIC UPDATE A very challenging year ends with positive developments on the Covid-19 vaccine front, but the recent surge in cases has triggered fresh restrictions in parts of the U.S.Markets have been well-behaved in the wake of the November 3 election, and the... by ALM First | Nov 4, 2020 | Monthly Market Commentary
ECONOMIC UPDATE Election week has finally arrived, and economists and market participants continue to contemplate various outcomes as it relates to future fiscal policy, regulation, etc.Q3 GDP growth was better than expected, aided by aggressive monetary and fiscal... by ALM First | Oct 5, 2020 | Monthly Market Commentary
ECONOMIC UPDATE 2020 has been a very difficult year on many fronts, and the economic outlook for Q4 is less certain with Congress unable to agree on additional fiscal aidDespite the uncertainty, the economic data trend, as a whole, continues to exceed expectations,... by ALM First | Sep 3, 2020 | Monthly Market Commentary
ECONOMIC UPDATE August was atypically busy for broad financial marketsFed Chair Jerome Powell unveiled a new monetary policy framework during his annual Jackson Hole address, including a shift to average inflation targetingDespite various distractions in recent weeks,... by ALM First | Aug 4, 2020 | Monthly Market Commentary
ECONOMIC UPDATE The path of COVID-19 remains the predominant driver of economic outlooks, and July was not a positive month on that frontQ2 GDP was expectedly bad on a historic level, but Q3 began with positive momentum on multiple fronts, but continued progress will... by ALM First | Jul 6, 2020 | Monthly Market Commentary
ECONOMIC UPDATE Broad market functionality is much improved despite the uncertain economic outlook, thanks in large part to the actions of monetary and fiscal policymakersEconomic forecasting is as challenging as ever, and the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index posted... by ALM First | Jun 4, 2020 | Monthly Market Commentary
ECONOMIC UPDATE Despite depression-like unemployment statistics, financial markets have rebounded strongly from the March lowsFed policies are having an extraordinary impact on market functionality, but Fed Chair Powell recently called for more fiscal aid to avert a... by ALM First | May 5, 2020 | Monthly Market Commentary
ECONOMIC UPDATE Financial market volatility reemerged in January amid geopolitical concerns and coronavirus fearsThere are some similarities between the current coronavirus outbreak and SARS from 2003/2004, but the response from the Chinese government has been more... by ALM First | Apr 24, 2020 | Monthly Market Commentary
Using TBA MBS as Hedging Alternative to Agencies Could Potentially Save Your Institution Millions Understanding and tracking hedge cost is critical in any mortgage pipeline hedging process. When forward committing loans to investors, there is an implied hedge cost... by ALM First | Apr 3, 2020 | Monthly Market Commentary
ECONOMIC UPDATE Financial markets experienced extraordinary volatility in March as the COVID-19 pandemic worsenedA self-imposed social lockdown is sending shockwaves across the global economy, but policymakers have responded with substantial monetary and fiscal...