February 2021 Market Commentary

ECONOMIC UPDATE A new White House, but the issue remains the same – dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic There were positive trends on the virus front in January, including reduction in the number of people hospitalized for COVID in the United StatesFed Chair Powell...

January 2021 Market Commentary

ECONOMIC UPDATE While vaccine success has brightened the 2021 economic outlook, the first quarter is less certain amid surging cases and renewed lockdownsThe labor market has recovered approximately 60% of lost jobs since the pandemic began, and a potential rise in...

December 2020 Market Commentary

ECONOMIC UPDATE A very challenging year ends with positive developments on the Covid-19 vaccine front, but the recent surge in cases has triggered fresh restrictions in parts of the U.S.Markets have been well-behaved in the wake of the November 3 election, and the...

November 2020 Market Commentary

ECONOMIC UPDATE Election week has finally arrived, and economists and market participants continue to contemplate various outcomes as it relates to future fiscal policy, regulation, etc.Q3 GDP growth was better than expected, aided by aggressive monetary and fiscal...

October 2020 Market Commentary

ECONOMIC UPDATE 2020 has been a very difficult year on many fronts, and the economic outlook for Q4 is less certain with Congress unable to agree on additional fiscal aidDespite the uncertainty, the economic data trend, as a whole, continues to exceed expectations,...

September 2020 Market Commentary

ECONOMIC UPDATE August was atypically busy for broad financial marketsFed Chair Jerome Powell unveiled a new monetary policy framework during his annual Jackson Hole address, including a shift to average inflation targetingDespite various distractions in recent weeks,...

August 2020 Market Commentary

ECONOMIC UPDATE The path of COVID-19 remains the predominant driver of economic outlooks, and July was not a positive month on that frontQ2 GDP was expectedly bad on a historic level, but Q3 began with positive momentum on multiple fronts, but continued progress will...

July 2020 Market Commentary

ECONOMIC UPDATE Broad market functionality is much improved despite the uncertain economic outlook, thanks in large part to the actions of monetary and fiscal policymakersEconomic forecasting is as challenging as ever, and the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index posted...

June 2020 Market Commentary

ECONOMIC UPDATE Despite depression-like unemployment statistics, financial markets have rebounded strongly from the March lowsFed policies are having an extraordinary impact on market functionality, but Fed Chair Powell recently called for more fiscal aid to avert a...

May 2020 Market Commentary

ECONOMIC UPDATE Financial market volatility reemerged in January amid geopolitical concerns and coronavirus fearsThere are some similarities between the current coronavirus outbreak and SARS from 2003/2004, but the response from the Chinese government has been more...

April 2020 Market Commentary

ECONOMIC UPDATE Financial markets experienced extraordinary volatility in March as the COVID-19 pandemic worsenedA self-imposed social lockdown is sending shockwaves across the global economy, but policymakers have responded with substantial monetary and fiscal...

March 2020 Market Commentary

ECONOMIC UPDATE Coronavirus fears paralyzed risk markets in the final week of FebruaryMarkets are now pricing for Fed rate cuts in March and April and an emergency rate cut of 50 bps was announced on March 3Fed Chair Powell issued a short statement on February 28...

February 2020 Market Commentary

ECONOMIC UPDATE Financial market volatility reemerged in January amid geopolitical concerns and coronavirus fearsThere are some similarities between the current coronavirus outbreak and SARS from 2003/2004, but the response from the Chinese government has been more...

January 2020 Market Commentary

ECONOMIC UPDATE 2019 was a great year for U.S. financial marketsThe U.S. economy performed above expectations for the year, boosted by strong personal consumption U.S./China trade negotiations should remain a sensitive topic for financial markets, and the Fed appears...

December 2019 Market Commentary

ECONOMIC UPDATE The presidential impeachment inquiry has not yet had a notable impact on financial marketsBroad market performance in November suggested increased optimism that a U.S./China trade deal would get done before year-endRecent comments from Fed leaders...

November 2019 Market Commentary

ECONOMIC UPDATE The Fed announced another rate cut in October, but forward guidance suggests that monetary policy is on hold for nowTrade headlines have been less negative, and the U.S. economy appears to be in better shape than some fearedThe Fed is increasing the...

October 2019 Market Commentary

ECONOMIC UPDATE Risk markets rebounded in September with less negative headlines on the trade front, but many questions loom entering Q4A supply/demand imbalance in overnight funding markets forced the Fed to intervene and inject liquidity into money marketsThe Fed...

September 2019 Market Commentary

ECONOMIC UPDATE August was atypically volatile for global financial markets in response to escalated U.S./China tensionsThe Fed is expected to cut the fed funds rate again in September, Powell and his colleagues have been hesitant to suggest a new easing cycle has...