March 2020 Market Commentary

ECONOMIC UPDATE Coronavirus fears paralyzed risk markets in the final week of FebruaryMarkets are now pricing for Fed rate cuts in March and April and an emergency rate cut of 50 bps was announced on March 3Fed Chair Powell issued a short statement on February 28...

February 2020 Market Commentary

ECONOMIC UPDATE Financial market volatility reemerged in January amid geopolitical concerns and coronavirus fearsThere are some similarities between the current coronavirus outbreak and SARS from 2003/2004, but the response from the Chinese government has been more...

January 2020 Market Commentary

ECONOMIC UPDATE 2019 was a great year for U.S. financial marketsThe U.S. economy performed above expectations for the year, boosted by strong personal consumption U.S./China trade negotiations should remain a sensitive topic for financial markets, and the Fed appears...

December 2019 Market Commentary

ECONOMIC UPDATE The presidential impeachment inquiry has not yet had a notable impact on financial marketsBroad market performance in November suggested increased optimism that a U.S./China trade deal would get done before year-endRecent comments from Fed leaders...

November 2019 Market Commentary

ECONOMIC UPDATE The Fed announced another rate cut in October, but forward guidance suggests that monetary policy is on hold for nowTrade headlines have been less negative, and the U.S. economy appears to be in better shape than some fearedThe Fed is increasing the...

October 2019 Market Commentary

ECONOMIC UPDATE Risk markets rebounded in September with less negative headlines on the trade front, but many questions loom entering Q4A supply/demand imbalance in overnight funding markets forced the Fed to intervene and inject liquidity into money marketsThe Fed...

September 2019 Market Commentary

ECONOMIC UPDATE August was atypically volatile for global financial markets in response to escalated U.S./China tensionsThe Fed is expected to cut the fed funds rate again in September, Powell and his colleagues have been hesitant to suggest a new easing cycle has...

August 2019 Market Commentary

ECONOMIC UPDATE The Fed met market expectations with a July rate cut, but future policy is less certain.The U.S. and China resumed negotiations during the last week of July and the Trump administration has discussed potential waivers for American tech firms selling...

July 2019 Market Commentary

ECONOMIC UPDATE Trade worries contributed to increased market expectations of a Fed rate cut.Three events during the week of June 17 eased investor concerns and boosted risk assets.The FOMC did not cut rates at the June 19 meeting. However, updated forward guidance...

June 2019 Market Commentary

ECONOMIC UPDATE Market sentiment turned notably bearish in May following a breakdown in U.S./China negotiationsThe Trump administration also decided to “weaponize” trade versus Mexico to affect immigration policyThe markets had largely been focused on the inflation...

May 2019 Market Commentary

ECONOMIC UPDATE Q1 GDP growth was better than expected, but the underlying components were less favorableDisinflation concerns have been voiced by some Fed leaders, leading the market to price a higher probability of a 2019 rate cutFed Chair Powell did not share those...

April 2019 Market Commentary

ECONOMIC UPDATE The sharp rally in Treasuries raised questions regarding the health of the U.S./global economy and future Fed policy The March FOMC meeting was more dovish than expected, with no projected rate hikes in 2019 according to the median participant forecast...

March 2019 Market Commentary

ECONOMIC UPDATE Risk markets maintained positive momentum in February on expectations of a dovish Fed and a trade agreement between the U.S. and China U.S. economic data trend has slowed relative to expectations in recent weeks January 30 FOMC minutes suggested the...

February 2019 Market Commentary

ECONOMIC UPDATE Riskier assets bounced back in January following a rough end to 2018 A more dovish Fed was the primary source of improved sentiment At the January meeting, the FOMC called for “patience” regarding future policy decisions, and a separate statement...

January 2019 Market Commentary

ECONOMIC UPDATE The Fed has received much popular criticism for raising the fed funds rate again in December, as Fed leaders resisted pressure to act in support of equity markets While markets are focused heavily on Fed interest rate policy, a greater unknown is the...

December 2018 Market Commentary

ECONOMIC UPDATE Financial markets remained volatile in November on concerns of tighter monetary policies, U.S./China trade relations, and slowing global growth Fed Chair Powell appeased the markets by tempering the perceived hawkishness of his October comments The...

November 2018 Market Commentary

ECONOMIC UPDATE Heightened market anxiety in October was attributable to the same general macro factors affecting markets in recent months, as well as corporate earnings concerns The domestic data trend remained solid over the month, including a better than expected...

October 2018 Market Commentary

ECONOMIC UPDATE Market sentiment improved in September, with investors seemingly shrugging off the latest negative trade headlines Italian fiscal woes present another potential source of market volatility in the near term The Fed continues to move forward with gradual...

September 2018 Market Commentary

ECONOMIC UPDATE The U.S. economy continues to expand at an above-trend rate, but potential headwinds from trade policies and emerging market stresses are fueling some anxiety in financial markets A stronger dollar and U.S. trade sanctions have brought emerging market...

August 2018 Market Commentary

ECONOMIC UPDATE • A positive meeting between Trump and Juncker temporarily eased trade concerns from a market perspective • Q2 GDP growth breached 4% for the first time since 2014, and the underlying details were positive for current quarter production • Higher...