Treasuries rallied overnight and S&P 500 futures fell 14-15 points on reports that the tax reform effort in the Senate had met some new obstacles.  Risk markets has rebounded somewhat in early trading this morning, but long-end yields are still modestly lower on the day.  While passage in the Senate is still expected at some point later today/tonight, some GOP Senators are reportedly seeking approximately $400 billion of new revenue offsets, which could include a higher corporate tax rate (21-22%) and/or more burdensome tax treatment for high-income individuals. If such changes are made to the Senate version, this further complicates the reconciliation process with the House bill. New York Fed President Bill Dudley suggested yesterday that fiscal stimulus (tax reform) might force the Fed to hike at a faster pace in 2018. Dudley also questioned the timing of fiscal stimulus at a time “when the economy’s already close to full employment.”

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

DateEventSurv(M)ActualPriorRevised
11/27New Home Sales628k685k667k645k
11/27New Home Sales MoM-6.30%6.20%18.90%14.20%
11/27Dallas Fed Manf. Activity2419.427.6
11/28Advance Goods Trade Balance-$64.9b-$68.3b-$64.1b
11/28Wholesale Inventories MoM0.40%-0.40%0.30%0.10%
11/28Retail Inventories MoM-0.10%-1.00%-0.90%
11/28FHFA House Price Index MoM0.50%0.30%0.70%0.80%
11/28House Price Purchase Index QoQ1.40%1.60%1.70%
11/28S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA0.30%0.52%0.45%0.44%
11/28S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA6.04%6.19%5.92%5.82%
11/28S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index203.5202.87202.68
11/28S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA6.15%6.07%5.95%
11/28S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index195.51195.05194.82
11/28Conf. Board Consumer Confidence124129.5125.9126.2
11/28Conf. Board Present Situation153.9151.1152
11/28Conf. Board Expectations113.3109.1109
11/28Richmond Fed Manufact. Index143012
11/29MBA Mortgage Applications-3.10%0.10%
11/29GDP Annualized QoQ3.20%3.30%3.00%
11/29Personal Consumption2.50%2.30%2.40%
11/29GDP Price Index2.20%2.10%2.20%
11/29Core PCE QoQ1.30%1.40%1.30%
11/29Pending Home Sales MoM1.00%3.50%0.00%-0.40%
11/29Pending Home Sales NSA YoY3.00%1.20%-5.40%-5.70%
11/29U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
11/30Initial Jobless Claims240k238k239k240k
11/30Continuing Claims1890k1957k1904k1915k
11/30Personal Income0.30%0.40%0.40%
11/30Personal Spending0.30%0.30%1.00%0.90%
11/30Real Personal Spending0.20%0.10%0.60%0.50%
11/30PCE Deflator MoM0.10%0.10%0.40%
11/30PCE Deflator YoY1.50%1.60%1.60%1.70%
11/30PCE Core MoM0.20%0.20%0.10%0.20%
11/30PCE Core YoY1.40%1.40%1.30%1.40%
11/30Chicago Purchasing Manager6363.966.2
11/30Bloomberg Consumer Comfort51.651.7
12/01Markit US Manufacturing PMI5453.8
12/01ISM Manufacturing58.358.7
12/01ISM Prices Paid6768.5
12/01ISM New Orders63.4
12/01ISM Employment59.8
12/01Construction Spending MoM0.50%0.30%
12/01Wards Total Vehicle Sales17.50m18.00m17.98m
12/01Wards Domestic Vehicle Sales13.40m14.02m13.95m