Treasuries rallied overnight and S&P 500 futures fell 14-15 points on reports that the tax reform effort in the Senate had met some new obstacles. Risk markets has rebounded somewhat in early trading this morning, but long-end yields are still modestly lower on the day. While passage in the Senate is still expected at some point later today/tonight, some GOP Senators are reportedly seeking approximately $400 billion of new revenue offsets, which could include a higher corporate tax rate (21-22%) and/or more burdensome tax treatment for high-income individuals. If such changes are made to the Senate version, this further complicates the reconciliation process with the House bill. New York Fed President Bill Dudley suggested yesterday that fiscal stimulus (tax reform) might force the Fed to hike at a faster pace in 2018. Dudley also questioned the timing of fiscal stimulus at a time “when the economy’s already close to full employment.”
Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
| Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 11/27 | New Home Sales | 628k | 685k | 667k | 645k |
| 11/27 | New Home Sales MoM | -6.30% | 6.20% | 18.90% | 14.20% |
| 11/27 | Dallas Fed Manf. Activity | 24 | 19.4 | 27.6 | — |
| 11/28 | Advance Goods Trade Balance | -$64.9b | -$68.3b | -$64.1b | — |
| 11/28 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.40% | -0.40% | 0.30% | 0.10% |
| 11/28 | Retail Inventories MoM | — | -0.10% | -1.00% | -0.90% |
| 11/28 | FHFA House Price Index MoM | 0.50% | 0.30% | 0.70% | 0.80% |
| 11/28 | House Price Purchase Index QoQ | — | 1.40% | 1.60% | 1.70% |
| 11/28 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA | 0.30% | 0.52% | 0.45% | 0.44% |
| 11/28 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA | 6.04% | 6.19% | 5.92% | 5.82% |
| 11/28 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index | — | 203.5 | 202.87 | 202.68 |
| 11/28 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA | — | 6.15% | 6.07% | 5.95% |
| 11/28 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index | — | 195.51 | 195.05 | 194.82 |
| 11/28 | Conf. Board Consumer Confidence | 124 | 129.5 | 125.9 | 126.2 |
| 11/28 | Conf. Board Present Situation | — | 153.9 | 151.1 | 152 |
| 11/28 | Conf. Board Expectations | — | 113.3 | 109.1 | 109 |
| 11/28 | Richmond Fed Manufact. Index | 14 | 30 | 12 | — |
| 11/29 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -3.10% | 0.10% | — |
| 11/29 | GDP Annualized QoQ | 3.20% | 3.30% | 3.00% | — |
| 11/29 | Personal Consumption | 2.50% | 2.30% | 2.40% | — |
| 11/29 | GDP Price Index | 2.20% | 2.10% | 2.20% | — |
| 11/29 | Core PCE QoQ | 1.30% | 1.40% | 1.30% | — |
| 11/29 | Pending Home Sales MoM | 1.00% | 3.50% | 0.00% | -0.40% |
| 11/29 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | 3.00% | 1.20% | -5.40% | -5.70% |
| 11/29 | U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book | ||||
| 11/30 | Initial Jobless Claims | 240k | 238k | 239k | 240k |
| 11/30 | Continuing Claims | 1890k | 1957k | 1904k | 1915k |
| 11/30 | Personal Income | 0.30% | 0.40% | 0.40% | — |
| 11/30 | Personal Spending | 0.30% | 0.30% | 1.00% | 0.90% |
| 11/30 | Real Personal Spending | 0.20% | 0.10% | 0.60% | 0.50% |
| 11/30 | PCE Deflator MoM | 0.10% | 0.10% | 0.40% | — |
| 11/30 | PCE Deflator YoY | 1.50% | 1.60% | 1.60% | 1.70% |
| 11/30 | PCE Core MoM | 0.20% | 0.20% | 0.10% | 0.20% |
| 11/30 | PCE Core YoY | 1.40% | 1.40% | 1.30% | 1.40% |
| 11/30 | Chicago Purchasing Manager | 63 | 63.9 | 66.2 | — |
| 11/30 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | 51.6 | 51.7 | — |
| 12/01 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | 54 | — | 53.8 | — |
| 12/01 | ISM Manufacturing | 58.3 | — | 58.7 | — |
| 12/01 | ISM Prices Paid | 67 | — | 68.5 | — |
| 12/01 | ISM New Orders | — | — | 63.4 | — |
| 12/01 | ISM Employment | — | — | 59.8 | — |
| 12/01 | Construction Spending MoM | 0.50% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 12/01 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | 17.50m | — | 18.00m | 17.98m |
| 12/01 | Wards Domestic Vehicle Sales | 13.40m | — | 14.02m | 13.95m |