December 1, 2020 Headlines

Treasury yields are higher this morning following better than expected economic data from China and Europe. All major global equity indices are higher on the day, and S&P 500 futures are up 0.91% ahead of the open. China’s Caixin PMI manufacturing index rose to 54.9 in November, the highest reading in 10 years, and also fueling today’s risk-on trade was a reduction in German unemployment and an upward revision to  preliminary November manufacturing PMI data for the Eurozone.  Fed Chair Powell is appearing before the Senate Banking Committee this morning, and in his prepared remarks, Powell highlights both hopes (vaccines) and uncertainties (timing, distribution, and usage rate of vaccines). Not surprisingly, he also expressed concern regarding the recent rise in Covid cases in the U.S. and abroad but provides no hints in his opening statement of any new efforts by the central bank to provide additional monetary stimulus. 

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Surv(M) Actual Prior Revised
11/30/20 MNI Chicago PMI 59 58.2 61.1
11/30/20 Pending Home Sales MoM 1.00% -1.10% -2.20% -2.00%
11/30/20 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY 19.50% 21.90% 22.20%
11/30/20 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 14.3 12 19.8
12/01/20 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 56.7 56.7
12/01/20 ISM Manufacturing 58 59.3
12/01/20 ISM New Orders 67.9
12/01/20 ISM Prices Paid 65 65.5
12/01/20 ISM Employment 53.2
12/01/20 Construction Spending MoM 0.80% 0.30%
12/01/20 Wards Total Vehicle Sales 16.10m 16.21m
12/02/20 MBA Mortgage Applications 3.90%
12/02/20 ADP Employment Change 430k 365k
12/02/20 U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
12/03/20 Challenger Job Cuts YoY 60.40%
12/03/20 Initial Jobless Claims 775k 778k
12/03/20 Continuing Claims 5800k 6071k
12/03/20 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 49.6
12/03/20 Markit US Services PMI 57.5 57.7
12/03/20 Markit US Composite PMI 57.9
12/03/20 ISM Services Index 55.8 56.6
12/04/20 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 486k 638k
12/04/20 Two-Month Payroll Net Revision
12/04/20 Change in Private Payrolls 574k 906k
12/04/20 Change in Manufact. Payrolls 45k 38k
12/04/20 Unemployment Rate 6.80% 6.90%
12/04/20 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 0.10% 0.10%
12/04/20 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 4.20% 4.50%
12/04/20 Average Weekly Hours All Employees 34.8 34.8
12/04/20 Labor Force Participation Rate 61.70% 61.70%
12/04/20 Underemployment Rate 12.10%
12/04/20 Trade Balance -$64.8b -$63.9b
12/04/20 Factory Orders 0.80% 1.10%
12/04/20 Factory Orders Ex Trans 0.50%
12/04/20 Durable Goods Orders 1.30% 1.30%
12/04/20 Durables Ex Transportation 1.30% 1.30%
12/04/20 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air 0.70% 0.70%
12/04/20 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air 2.30%

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