December 1, 2020 Headlines

Treasury yields are higher this morning following better than expected economic data from China and Europe. All major global equity indices are higher on the day, and S&P 500 futures are up 0.91% ahead of the open. China’s Caixin PMI manufacturing index rose to 54.9 in November, the highest reading in 10 years, and also fueling today’s risk-on trade was a reduction in German unemployment and an upward revision to  preliminary November manufacturing PMI data for the Eurozone.  Fed Chair Powell is appearing before the Senate Banking Committee this morning, and in his prepared remarks, Powell highlights both hopes (vaccines) and uncertainties (timing, distribution, and usage rate of vaccines). Not surprisingly, he also expressed concern regarding the recent rise in Covid cases in the U.S. and abroad but provides no hints in his opening statement of any new efforts by the central bank to provide additional monetary stimulus. 

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Surv(M) Actual Prior Revised
11/30/20 MNI Chicago PMI 59 58.2 61.1 —
11/30/20 Pending Home Sales MoM 1.00% -1.10% -2.20% -2.00%
11/30/20 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY — 19.50% 21.90% 22.20%
11/30/20 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 14.3 12 19.8 —
12/01/20 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 56.7 — 56.7 —
12/01/20 ISM Manufacturing 58 — 59.3 —
12/01/20 ISM New Orders — — 67.9 —
12/01/20 ISM Prices Paid 65 — 65.5 —
12/01/20 ISM Employment — — 53.2 —
12/01/20 Construction Spending MoM 0.80% — 0.30% —
12/01/20 Wards Total Vehicle Sales 16.10m — 16.21m —
12/02/20 MBA Mortgage Applications — — 3.90% —
12/02/20 ADP Employment Change 430k — 365k —
12/02/20 U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
12/03/20 Challenger Job Cuts YoY — — 60.40% —
12/03/20 Initial Jobless Claims 775k — 778k —
12/03/20 Continuing Claims 5800k — 6071k —
12/03/20 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort — — 49.6 —
12/03/20 Markit US Services PMI 57.5 — 57.7 —
12/03/20 Markit US Composite PMI — — 57.9 —
12/03/20 ISM Services Index 55.8 — 56.6 —
12/04/20 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 486k — 638k —
12/04/20 Two-Month Payroll Net Revision — — — —
12/04/20 Change in Private Payrolls 574k — 906k —
12/04/20 Change in Manufact. Payrolls 45k — 38k —
12/04/20 Unemployment Rate 6.80% — 6.90% —
12/04/20 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 0.10% — 0.10% —
12/04/20 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 4.20% — 4.50% —
12/04/20 Average Weekly Hours All Employees 34.8 — 34.8 —
12/04/20 Labor Force Participation Rate 61.70% — 61.70% —
12/04/20 Underemployment Rate — — 12.10% —
12/04/20 Trade Balance -$64.8b — -$63.9b —
12/04/20 Factory Orders 0.80% — 1.10% —
12/04/20 Factory Orders Ex Trans — — 0.50% —
12/04/20 Durable Goods Orders 1.30% — 1.30% —
12/04/20 Durables Ex Transportation 1.30% — 1.30% —
12/04/20 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air 0.70% — 0.70% —
12/04/20 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air — — 2.30% —

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