December 10, 2020 Headlines

A rise in weekly jobless claims and stalled stimulus negotiations are pushing Treasury yields lower and flatter this morning. U.S. equity futures are down 20-60 bps, with tech stocks leading the downturn in early trading. Initial jobless claims surged higher to 853,000 last week, nearly 130,000 more than expected as new lockdowns emerged recently in parts of the country. The November CPI report showed modestly higher than expected growth in consumer prices. Both headline and core CPI rose 0.2% month-over-month versus expectations of 0.1% growth for each, and on a year-over-year basis, core CPI was up 1.6% versus 1.5% expected. Mortgage origination is on pace to exceed the 2003 record of $3.7 trillion in 2003 according to research firm Inside Mortgage Finance. Origination reached $2.8 trillion at the end of the third quarter, with 65% of the total attributable to refinancing. The share of refinancing is on pace to be the highest since 2012 according to the same report.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurv(M)ActualPriorRevised
12/07/20Consumer Credit$15.500b$7.228b$16.214b$15.034b
12/08/20NFIB Small Business Optimism102.5101.4104
12/08/20Nonfarm Productivity4.90%4.60%4.90%
12/08/20Unit Labor Costs-8.90%-6.60%-8.90%
12/09/20MBA Mortgage Applications-1.20%-0.60%
12/09/20Wholesale Inventories MoM0.90%1.10%0.90%
12/09/20Wholesale Trade Sales MoM1.80%0.10%0.40%
12/09/20JOLTS Job Openings6300665264366494
12/10/20Initial Jobless Claims725k853k712k716k
12/10/20Continuing Claims5210k5757k5520k5527k
12/10/20CPI MoM0.10%0.20%0.00%
12/10/20CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.10%0.20%0.00%
12/10/20CPI YoY1.10%1.20%1.20%
12/10/20CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY1.50%1.60%1.60%
12/10/20CPI Index NSA260.089260.229260.388
12/10/20CPI Core Index SA269.57269.887269.296
12/10/20Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY3.20%3.20%
12/10/20Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY4.70%4.40%
12/10/20Bloomberg Consumer Comfort49.3
12/10/20Household Change in Net Worth$7607b
12/10/20Monthly Budget Statement-$198.5b-$208.8b
12/11/20PPI Final Demand MoM0.10%0.30%
12/11/20PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.10%
12/11/20PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.20%0.20%
12/11/20PPI Final Demand YoY0.70%0.50%
12/11/20PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY1.50%1.10%
12/11/20PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY0.80%
12/11/20U. of Mich. Sentiment7676.9
12/11/20U. of Mich. Current Conditions87
12/11/20U. of Mich. Expectations70.5
12/11/20U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.80%
12/11/20U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.50%

Subscribe Today!

Subscribe to our email list and get the latest articles and announcements from ALM First.

Recent Articles

ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content.Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First.Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.