December 10, 2020 Headlines

A rise in weekly jobless claims and stalled stimulus negotiations are pushing Treasury yields lower and flatter this morning. U.S. equity futures are down 20-60 bps, with tech stocks leading the downturn in early trading. Initial jobless claims surged higher to 853,000 last week, nearly 130,000 more than expected as new lockdowns emerged recently in parts of the country. The November CPI report showed modestly higher than expected growth in consumer prices. Both headline and core CPI rose 0.2% month-over-month versus expectations of 0.1% growth for each, and on a year-over-year basis, core CPI was up 1.6% versus 1.5% expected. Mortgage origination is on pace to exceed the 2003 record of $3.7 trillion in 2003 according to research firm Inside Mortgage Finance. Origination reached $2.8 trillion at the end of the third quarter, with 65% of the total attributable to refinancing. The share of refinancing is on pace to be the highest since 2012 according to the same report.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

12/07/20Consumer Credit$15.500b$7.228b$16.214b$15.034b
12/08/20NFIB Small Business Optimism102.5101.4104
12/08/20Nonfarm Productivity4.90%4.60%4.90%
12/08/20Unit Labor Costs-8.90%-6.60%-8.90%
12/09/20MBA Mortgage Applications-1.20%-0.60%
12/09/20Wholesale Inventories MoM0.90%1.10%0.90%
12/09/20Wholesale Trade Sales MoM1.80%0.10%0.40%
12/09/20JOLTS Job Openings6300665264366494
12/10/20Initial Jobless Claims725k853k712k716k
12/10/20Continuing Claims5210k5757k5520k5527k
12/10/20CPI MoM0.10%0.20%0.00%
12/10/20CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.10%0.20%0.00%
12/10/20CPI YoY1.10%1.20%1.20%
12/10/20CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY1.50%1.60%1.60%
12/10/20CPI Index NSA260.089260.229260.388
12/10/20CPI Core Index SA269.57269.887269.296
12/10/20Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY3.20%3.20%
12/10/20Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY4.70%4.40%
12/10/20Bloomberg Consumer Comfort49.3
12/10/20Household Change in Net Worth$7607b
12/10/20Monthly Budget Statement-$198.5b-$208.8b
12/11/20PPI Final Demand MoM0.10%0.30%
12/11/20PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.10%
12/11/20PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.20%0.20%
12/11/20PPI Final Demand YoY0.70%0.50%
12/11/20PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY1.50%1.10%
12/11/20PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY0.80%
12/11/20U. of Mich. Sentiment7676.9
12/11/20U. of Mich. Current Conditions87
12/11/20U. of Mich. Expectations70.5
12/11/20U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.80%
12/11/20U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.50%

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