Treasuries are little changed this morning with tomorrow’s Fed announcement looming. Global equity markets are mixed (Asia mostly lower, Europe slightly higher), and S&P 500 futures are essentially flat. Politico is reporting that the tax reform reconciliation process is proceeding at a relatively slow pace, with GOP leaders struggling to come to agreement on more controversial issues (state/local tax deductions, corporate tax rate, etc.). Despite the obstacles, Republicans are still planning to have a final tax bill to President Trump’s desk “by December 20 or even sooner” according to the article. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index surged nearly 4 points in November to 107.5, the second-highest reading in the 44-year history of the index (highest since 1983). Within the survey, Sales Expectations and Expected Better Business Conditions posted the biggest m/m gains.
Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
| Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 12/11 | JOLTS Job Openings | 6135 | 5996 | 6093 | 6177 |
| 12/12 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | 104 | 107.5 | 103.8 | — |
| 12/12 | PPI Final Demand MoM | 0.30% | 0.40% | 0.40% | — |
| 12/12 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | 0.30% | 0.40% | — |
| 12/12 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | 0.20% | 0.40% | 0.20% | — |
| 12/12 | PPI Final Demand YoY | 2.90% | 3.10% | 2.80% | — |
| 12/12 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.40% | 2.40% | 2.40% | — |
| 12/12 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | — | 2.40% | 2.30% | — |
| 12/12 | Monthly Budget Statement | -$134.5b | — | -$136.7b | — |
| 12/13 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 4.70% | — |
| 12/13 | CPI MoM | 0.40% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 12/13 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 12/13 | CPI YoY | 2.20% | — | 2.00% | — |
| 12/13 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 1.80% | — | 1.80% | — |
| 12/13 | CPI Core Index SA | 253.961 | — | 253.428 | — |
| 12/13 | CPI Index NSA | 246.798 | — | 246.663 | — |
| 12/13 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | — | 0.40% | 0.30% |
| 12/13 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | — | 0.40% | 0.20% |
| 12/13 | FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) | 1.50% | — | 1.25% | — |
| 12/13 | FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) | 1.25% | — | 1.00% | — |
| 12/14 | Initial Jobless Claims | 236k | — | 236k | — |
| 12/14 | Continuing Claims | 1900k | — | 1908k | — |
| 12/14 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 12/14 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 0.60% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 12/14 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 0.40% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 12/14 | Retail Sales Control Group | 0.40% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 12/14 | Import Price Index MoM | 0.70% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 12/14 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | 0.10% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 12/14 | Import Price Index YoY | 3.30% | — | 2.50% | — |
| 12/14 | Export Price Index MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.00% | — |
| 12/14 | Export Price Index YoY | — | — | 2.70% | — |
| 12/14 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | 54 | — | 53.9 | — |
| 12/14 | Markit US Services PMI | 55 | — | 54.5 | — |
| 12/14 | Markit US Composite PMI | — | — | 54.5 | — |
| 12/14 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 52.3 | — |
| 12/14 | Business Inventories | -0.10% | — | 0.00% | — |
| 12/15 | Empire Manufacturing | 18.7 | — | 19.4 | — |
| 12/15 | Bloomberg Dec. United States Economic Survey | ||||
| 12/15 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.90% | — |
| 12/15 | Capacity Utilization | 77.20% | — | 77.00% | — |
| 12/15 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | 0.30% | — | 1.30% | — |
| 12/15 | Total Net TIC Flows | — | — | -$51.3b | — |
| 12/15 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | — | — | $80.9b | — |