Treasuries are little changed this morning with tomorrow’s Fed announcement looming. Global equity markets are mixed (Asia mostly lower, Europe slightly higher), and S&P 500 futures are essentially flat. Politico is reporting that the tax reform reconciliation process is proceeding at a relatively slow pace, with GOP leaders struggling to come to agreement on more controversial issues (state/local tax deductions, corporate tax rate, etc.). Despite the obstacles, Republicans are still planning to have a final tax bill to President Trump’s desk “by December 20 or even sooner” according to the article. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index surged nearly 4 points in November to 107.5, the second-highest reading in the 44-year history of the index (highest since 1983). Within the survey, Sales Expectations and Expected Better Business Conditions posted the biggest m/m gains.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

12/11JOLTS Job Openings6135599660936177
12/12NFIB Small Business Optimism104107.5103.8
12/12PPI Final Demand MoM0.30%0.40%0.40%
12/12PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.30%0.40%
12/12PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.20%0.40%0.20%
12/12PPI Final Demand YoY2.90%3.10%2.80%
12/12PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.40%2.40%2.40%
12/12PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY2.40%2.30%
12/12Monthly Budget Statement-$134.5b-$136.7b
12/13MBA Mortgage Applications4.70%
12/13CPI MoM0.40%0.10%
12/13CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.20%
12/13CPI YoY2.20%2.00%
12/13CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY1.80%1.80%
12/13CPI Core Index SA253.961253.428
12/13CPI Index NSA246.798246.663
12/13Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY0.40%0.30%
12/13Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY0.40%0.20%
12/13FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)1.50%1.25%
12/13FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)1.25%1.00%
12/14Initial Jobless Claims236k236k
12/14Continuing Claims1900k1908k
12/14Retail Sales Advance MoM0.30%0.20%
12/14Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.60%0.10%
12/14Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.40%0.30%
12/14Retail Sales Control Group0.40%0.30%
12/14Import Price Index MoM0.70%0.20%
12/14Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.10%0.10%
12/14Import Price Index YoY3.30%2.50%
12/14Export Price Index MoM0.30%0.00%
12/14Export Price Index YoY2.70%
12/14Markit US Manufacturing PMI5453.9
12/14Markit US Services PMI5554.5
12/14Markit US Composite PMI54.5
12/14Bloomberg Consumer Comfort52.3
12/14Business Inventories-0.10%0.00%
12/15Empire Manufacturing18.719.4
12/15Bloomberg Dec. United States Economic Survey
12/15Industrial Production MoM0.30%0.90%
12/15Capacity Utilization77.20%77.00%
12/15Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.30%1.30%
12/15Total Net TIC Flows-$51.3b
12/15Net Long-term TIC Flows$80.9b