Following three straight meetings that cut the fed funds rate, the FOMC decided unanimously to leave the target range unchanged at 1.5%-1.75%. The decision to leave short term rates unchanged was as-expected, however, there were some changes to the official statement. The FOMC mentioned that rates are currently “appropriate” to support growth, jobs and inflation while removing the statement that “uncertainties about this outlook remain. Fed Chairman Powell also echoed these comments in his press conference suggesting the central bank will keep rates unchanged unless there is a meaningful change in its outlook.
This morning, US Treasuries were mixed on thin volume as short-end yields moved slightly lower and 1-2 basis higher for the long-end. While the Fed announced their policy decision yesterday afternoon, market participants are still waiting for details on the Temporary Open Market Operation plans to provide liquidity to the repo markets. Other key events on the schedule include President Trump meeting with key trade advisors ahead of the December 15th deadline, the European Central Bank decision, and UK election
Chris Eckhoff
Associate, Investment Management Group
Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
12/10/2019 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | 103 | 104.7 | 102.4 | — |
12/10/2019 | Nonfarm Productivity | -0.10% | -0.20% | -0.30% | — |
12/10/2019 | Unit Labor Costs | 3.40% | 2.50% | 3.60% | — |
12/11/2019 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | 3.80% | -9.20% | — |
12/11/2019 | CPI MoM | 0.20% | 0.30% | 0.40% | — |
12/11/2019 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | 0.20% | 0.20% | — |
12/11/2019 | CPI YoY | 2.00% | 2.10% | 1.80% | — |
12/11/2019 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.30% | 2.30% | 2.30% | — |
12/11/2019 | CPI Core Index SA | 265.476 | 265.62 | 265.011 | — |
12/11/2019 | CPI Index NSA | 257.213 | 257.208 | 257.346 | — |
12/11/2019 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | 1.10% | 0.90% | 1.10% |
12/11/2019 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | 1.10% | 1.20% | 1.40% |
12/11/2019 | FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) | 1.75% | 1.75% | 1.75% | — |
12/11/2019 | Monthly Budget Statement | -$206.2b | -$208.8b | -$204.9b | — |
12/11/2019 | FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) | 1.50% | 1.50% | 1.50% | — |
12/11/2019 | Interest Rate on Excess Reserves | 1.55% | 1.55% | 1.55% | — |
12/12/2019 | PPI Final Demand MoM | 0.20% | 0.00% | 0.40% | — |
12/12/2019 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | -0.20% | 0.30% | — |
12/12/2019 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | 0.20% | 0.00% | 0.10% | — |
12/12/2019 | PPI Final Demand YoY | 1.30% | 1.10% | 1.10% | — |
12/12/2019 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 1.70% | 1.30% | 1.60% | — |
12/12/2019 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | — | 1.30% | 1.50% | — |
12/12/2019 | Initial Jobless Claims | 214k | 252k | 203k | — |
12/12/2019 | Continuing Claims | 1678k | 1667k | 1693k | 1698k |
12/12/2019 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | 62.1 | 61.7 | — |
12/12/2019 | Household Change in Net Worth | — | — | $1830b | — |
12/13/2019 | Import Price Index MoM | 0.20% | — | -0.50% | — |
12/13/2019 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | -0.10% | — | -0.10% | — |
12/13/2019 | Import Price Index YoY | -1.20% | — | -3.00% | — |
12/13/2019 | Export Price Index MoM | 0.10% | — | -0.10% | — |
12/13/2019 | Export Price Index YoY | — | — | -2.20% | — |
12/13/2019 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 0.50% | — | 0.30% | — |
12/13/2019 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 0.40% | — | 0.20% | — |
12/13/2019 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 0.40% | — | 0.10% | — |
12/13/2019 | Retail Sales Control Group | 0.30% | — | 0.30% | — |
12/13/2019 | Bloomberg Dec. United States Economic Survey | ||||
12/13/2019 | Business Inventories | 0.20% | — | 0.00% | — |
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