December 12, 2019 Headlines

Following three straight meetings that cut the fed funds rate, the FOMC decided unanimously to leave the target range unchanged at 1.5%-1.75%. The decision to leave short term rates unchanged was as-expected, however, there were some changes to the official statement. The FOMC mentioned that rates are currently “appropriate” to support growth, jobs and inflation while removing the statement that “uncertainties about this outlook remain. Fed Chairman Powell also echoed these comments in his press conference suggesting the central bank will keep rates unchanged unless there is a meaningful change in its outlook.

This morning, US Treasuries were mixed on thin volume as short-end yields moved slightly lower and 1-2 basis higher for the long-end. While the Fed announced their policy decision yesterday afternoon, market participants are still waiting for details on the Temporary Open Market Operation plans to provide liquidity to the repo markets. Other key events on the schedule include President Trump meeting with key trade advisors ahead of the December 15th deadline, the European Central Bank decision, and UK election

Chris Eckhoff
Associate, Investment Management Group

Date	Event	Survey	Actual	Prior	Revised
12/10/2019	NFIB Small Business Optimism	103	104.7	102.4	—
12/10/2019	Nonfarm Productivity	-0.10%	-0.20%	-0.30%	—
12/10/2019	Unit Labor Costs	3.40%	2.50%	3.60%	—
12/11/2019	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	3.80%	-9.20%	—
12/11/2019	CPI MoM	0.20%	0.30%	0.40%	—
12/11/2019	CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM	0.20%	0.20%	0.20%	—
12/11/2019	CPI YoY	2.00%	2.10%	1.80%	—
12/11/2019	CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY	2.30%	2.30%	2.30%	—
12/11/2019	CPI Core Index SA	265.476	265.62	265.011	—
12/11/2019	CPI Index NSA	257.213	257.208	257.346	—
12/11/2019	Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY	—	1.10%	0.90%	1.10%
12/11/2019	Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY	—	1.10%	1.20%	1.40%
12/11/2019	FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)	1.75%	1.75%	1.75%	—
12/11/2019	Monthly Budget Statement	-$206.2b	-$208.8b	-$204.9b	—
12/11/2019	FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)	1.50%	1.50%	1.50%	—
12/11/2019	Interest Rate on Excess Reserves	1.55%	1.55%	1.55%	—
12/12/2019	PPI Final Demand MoM	0.20%	0.00%	0.40%	—
12/12/2019	PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM	0.20%	-0.20%	0.30%	—
12/12/2019	PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM	0.20%	0.00%	0.10%	—
12/12/2019	PPI Final Demand YoY	1.30%	1.10%	1.10%	—
12/12/2019	PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY	1.70%	1.30%	1.60%	—
12/12/2019	PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY	—	1.30%	1.50%	—
12/12/2019	Initial Jobless Claims	214k	252k	203k	—
12/12/2019	Continuing Claims	1678k	1667k	1693k	1698k
12/12/2019	Bloomberg Consumer Comfort	—	62.1	61.7	—
12/12/2019	Household Change in Net Worth	—	—	$1830b	—
12/13/2019	Import Price Index MoM	0.20%	—	-0.50%	—
12/13/2019	Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM	-0.10%	—	-0.10%	—
12/13/2019	Import Price Index YoY	-1.20%	—	-3.00%	—
12/13/2019	Export Price Index MoM	0.10%	—	-0.10%	—
12/13/2019	Export Price Index YoY	—	—	-2.20%	—
12/13/2019	Retail Sales Advance MoM	0.50%	—	0.30%	—
12/13/2019	Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM	0.40%	—	0.20%	—
12/13/2019	Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas	0.40%	—	0.10%	—
12/13/2019	Retail Sales Control Group	0.30%	—	0.30%	—
12/13/2019	Bloomberg Dec. United States Economic Survey
12/13/2019	Business Inventories	0.20%	—	0.00%	—

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