December 12, 2019 Headlines

Following three straight meetings that cut the fed funds rate, the FOMC decided unanimously to leave the target range unchanged at 1.5%-1.75%. The decision to leave short term rates unchanged was as-expected, however, there were some changes to the official statement. The FOMC mentioned that rates are currently “appropriate” to support growth, jobs and inflation while removing the statement that “uncertainties about this outlook remain. Fed Chairman Powell also echoed these comments in his press conference suggesting the central bank will keep rates unchanged unless there is a meaningful change in its outlook.

This morning, US Treasuries were mixed on thin volume as short-end yields moved slightly lower and 1-2 basis higher for the long-end. While the Fed announced their policy decision yesterday afternoon, market participants are still waiting for details on the Temporary Open Market Operation plans to provide liquidity to the repo markets. Other key events on the schedule include President Trump meeting with key trade advisors ahead of the December 15th deadline, the European Central Bank decision, and UK election

Chris Eckhoff
Associate, Investment Management Group

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
12/10/2019NFIB Small Business Optimism103104.7102.4
12/10/2019Nonfarm Productivity-0.10%-0.20%-0.30%
12/10/2019Unit Labor Costs3.40%2.50%3.60%
12/11/2019MBA Mortgage Applications3.80%-9.20%
12/11/2019CPI MoM0.20%0.30%0.40%
12/11/2019CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.20%0.20%
12/11/2019CPI YoY2.00%2.10%1.80%
12/11/2019CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.30%2.30%2.30%
12/11/2019CPI Core Index SA265.476265.62265.011
12/11/2019CPI Index NSA257.213257.208257.346
12/11/2019Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY1.10%0.90%1.10%
12/11/2019Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY1.10%1.20%1.40%
12/11/2019FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)1.75%1.75%1.75%
12/11/2019Monthly Budget Statement-$206.2b-$208.8b-$204.9b
12/11/2019FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)1.50%1.50%1.50%
12/11/2019Interest Rate on Excess Reserves1.55%1.55%1.55%
12/12/2019PPI Final Demand MoM0.20%0.00%0.40%
12/12/2019PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%-0.20%0.30%
12/12/2019PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.20%0.00%0.10%
12/12/2019PPI Final Demand YoY1.30%1.10%1.10%
12/12/2019PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY1.70%1.30%1.60%
12/12/2019PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY1.30%1.50%
12/12/2019Initial Jobless Claims214k252k203k
12/12/2019Continuing Claims1678k1667k1693k1698k
12/12/2019Bloomberg Consumer Comfort62.161.7
12/12/2019Household Change in Net Worth$1830b
12/13/2019Import Price Index MoM0.20%-0.50%
12/13/2019Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM-0.10%-0.10%
12/13/2019Import Price Index YoY-1.20%-3.00%
12/13/2019Export Price Index MoM0.10%-0.10%
12/13/2019Export Price Index YoY-2.20%
12/13/2019Retail Sales Advance MoM0.50%0.30%
12/13/2019Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.40%0.20%
12/13/2019Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.40%0.10%
12/13/2019Retail Sales Control Group0.30%0.30%
12/13/2019Bloomberg Dec. United States Economic Survey
12/13/2019Business Inventories0.20%0.00%

 

 

 

 

Subscribe Today!

Subscribe to our email list and get the latest articles and announcements from ALM First.

Recent Articles

ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content.Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First.Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.