Treasury prices are lower this morning in response to a rebound in global risk markets. Major Asian equity markets closed up more than 2% on news that Huawei’s CFO was granted bail in Canada, which is perceived as a positive for U.S./China trade negotiations. The Euro Stoxx is up 1.6%, and S&P 500 futures are up 1.1% at the moment. While trade negotiations with China appear to be progressing in a positive way, U.S. officials are separately pursuing a series of actions against China on the technology front (malicious hacking, technology theft, etc.). While it appears that U.S. and Chinese officials are trying to keep these two issues separate (trade and tech), there is some concern in the markets that efforts on the tech front could compromise/derail any progress on trade. When the Trump Administration began announcing tariffs earlier this year, some analysts suggested this was more about curbing technology and intellectual property theft by China, and this may become more evident as events unfold in the coming weeks/months.
The November CPI report came in right on the screws relative to expectations. Headline CPI was unchanged m/m, and excluding food and energy, core prices were up 0.2% on the month. On a year-over-year basis, core CPI was up 2.2% in November, an increase from the 2.1% reading in October.
Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior |
| 12/10 | JOLTS Job Openings | 7100 | 7079 | 7009 |
| 12/11 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | 107 | 104.8 | 107.4 |
| 12/11 | PPI Final Demand MoM | 0.00% | 0.10% | 0.60% |
| 12/11 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.10% | 0.30% | 0.50% |
| 12/11 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | 0.20% | 0.30% | 0.20% |
| 12/11 | PPI Final Demand YoY | 2.50% | 2.50% | 2.90% |
| 12/11 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.50% | 2.70% | 2.60% |
| 12/11 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | — | 2.80% | 2.80% |
| 12/12 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | 1.60% | 2.00% |
| 12/12 | CPI MoM | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.30% |
| 12/12 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | 0.20% | 0.20% |
| 12/12 | CPI YoY | 2.20% | 2.20% | 2.50% |
| 12/12 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.20% | 2.20% | 2.10% |
| 12/12 | CPI Index NSA | 252.006 | 252.038 | 252.885 |
| 12/12 | CPI Core Index SA | 259.412 | 259.481 | 258.939 |
| 12/12 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | 0.50% | 0.90% |
| 12/12 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | 0.80% | 0.70% |
| 12/12 | Monthly Budget Statement | -$199.0b | — | -$100.5b |
| 12/13 | Import Price Index MoM | -1.00% | — | 0.50% |
| 12/13 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | -0.10% | — | 0.20% |
| 12/13 | Import Price Index YoY | 1.30% | — | 3.50% |
| 12/13 | Export Price Index MoM | -0.30% | — | 0.40% |
| 12/13 | Export Price Index YoY | — | — | 3.10% |
| 12/13 | Initial Jobless Claims | 226k | — | 231k |
| 12/13 | Continuing Claims | 1649k | — | 1631k |
| 12/13 | Bloomberg Dec. United States Economic Survey | |||
| 12/13 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 60.3 |
| 12/14 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 0.10% | — | 0.80% |
| 12/14 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.70% |
| 12/14 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 0.40% | — | 0.30% |
| 12/14 | Retail Sales Control Group | 0.50% | — | 0.30% |
| 12/14 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.10% |
| 12/14 | Capacity Utilization | 78.60% | — | 78.40% |
| 12/14 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | 0.30% | — | 0.30% |
| 12/14 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | 55 | — | 55.3 |
| 12/14 | Markit US Services PMI | 54.6 | — | 54.7 |
| 12/14 | Business Inventories | 0.60% | — | 0.30% |