December 13, 2019 Headlines

Treasury prices are moving higher this morning following a weaker than expected retail sales report for November. The 10-year yield touched 1.95% overnight on the UK election results and media reports that a phase one trade deal had been reached “in principle,” which would include at least partial roll backs of existing US tariffs. The positive sentiment was largely erased when both President Trump and China’s Foreign Ministry disputed those claims.  The 10-year yield is now at 1.86%, down 9 bps from the overnight high. Retail sales rose 0.2% m/m in November, well below an expected 0.5% growth rate. The control group, which is used in the GDP calculation, rose just 0.1% from the prior month (0.3% expected). The initial market reaction to the report was negative, and given the significant contribution of personal consumption on the US economy, many economists will likely revise Q4 GDP forecasts lower. At the same time, retailers have suggested that holiday sales are strong this year, so there’s a reasonable chance we see these figured revised higher in the next month.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
12/10/2019NFIB Small Business Optimism103104.7102.4—
12/10/2019Nonfarm Productivity-0.10%-0.20%-0.30%—
12/10/2019Unit Labor Costs3.40%2.50%3.60%—
12/11/2019MBA Mortgage Applications—3.80%-9.20%—
12/11/2019CPI MoM0.20%0.30%0.40%—
12/11/2019CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.20%0.20%—
12/11/2019CPI YoY2.00%2.10%1.80%—
12/11/2019CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.30%2.30%2.30%—
12/11/2019CPI Core Index SA265.476265.62265.011—
12/11/2019CPI Index NSA257.213257.208257.346—
12/11/2019Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY—1.10%0.90%1.10%
12/11/2019Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY—1.10%1.20%1.40%
12/11/2019FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)1.75%1.75%1.75%—
12/11/2019Monthly Budget Statement-$206.2b-$208.8b-$204.9b—
12/11/2019FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)1.50%1.50%1.50%—
12/11/2019Interest Rate on Excess Reserves1.55%1.55%1.55%—
12/12/2019PPI Final Demand MoM0.20%0.00%0.40%—
12/12/2019PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%-0.20%0.30%—
12/12/2019PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.20%0.00%0.10%—
12/12/2019PPI Final Demand YoY1.30%1.10%1.10%—
12/12/2019PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY1.70%1.30%1.60%—
12/12/2019PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY—1.30%1.50%—
12/12/2019Initial Jobless Claims214k252k203k—
12/12/2019Continuing Claims1678k1667k1693k1698k
12/12/2019Bloomberg Consumer Comfort—62.161.7—
12/12/2019Household Change in Net Worth—$574b$1830b$1862b
12/13/2019Import Price Index MoM0.20%0.20%-0.50%—
12/13/2019Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM-0.10%0.20%-0.10%—
12/13/2019Import Price Index YoY-1.20%-1.30%-3.00%—
12/13/2019Export Price Index MoM0.10%0.20%-0.10%—
12/13/2019Export Price Index YoY—-1.30%-2.20%-2.30%
12/13/2019Retail Sales Advance MoM0.50%0.20%0.30%0.40%
12/13/2019Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.40%0.10%0.20%0.30%
12/13/2019Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.40%0.00%0.10%0.20%
12/13/2019Retail Sales Control Group0.30%0.10%0.30%—
12/13/2019SURVEY REPORT: U.S. Economic Forecasts in Dec. 2019
12/13/2019Business Inventories0.20%—0.00%—

 

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