Treasury prices are moving higher this morning following a weaker than expected retail sales report for November. The 10-year yield touched 1.95% overnight on the UK election results and media reports that a phase one trade deal had been reached “in principle,” which would include at least partial roll backs of existing US tariffs. The positive sentiment was largely erased when both President Trump and China’s Foreign Ministry disputed those claims. The 10-year yield is now at 1.86%, down 9 bps from the overnight high. Retail sales rose 0.2% m/m in November, well below an expected 0.5% growth rate. The control group, which is used in the GDP calculation, rose just 0.1% from the prior month (0.3% expected). The initial market reaction to the report was negative, and given the significant contribution of personal consumption on the US economy, many economists will likely revise Q4 GDP forecasts lower. At the same time, retailers have suggested that holiday sales are strong this year, so there’s a reasonable chance we see these figured revised higher in the next month.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
12/10/2019 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | 103 | 104.7 | 102.4 | — |
12/10/2019 | Nonfarm Productivity | -0.10% | -0.20% | -0.30% | — |
12/10/2019 | Unit Labor Costs | 3.40% | 2.50% | 3.60% | — |
12/11/2019 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | 3.80% | -9.20% | — |
12/11/2019 | CPI MoM | 0.20% | 0.30% | 0.40% | — |
12/11/2019 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | 0.20% | 0.20% | — |
12/11/2019 | CPI YoY | 2.00% | 2.10% | 1.80% | — |
12/11/2019 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.30% | 2.30% | 2.30% | — |
12/11/2019 | CPI Core Index SA | 265.476 | 265.62 | 265.011 | — |
12/11/2019 | CPI Index NSA | 257.213 | 257.208 | 257.346 | — |
12/11/2019 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | 1.10% | 0.90% | 1.10% |
12/11/2019 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | 1.10% | 1.20% | 1.40% |
12/11/2019 | FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) | 1.75% | 1.75% | 1.75% | — |
12/11/2019 | Monthly Budget Statement | -$206.2b | -$208.8b | -$204.9b | — |
12/11/2019 | FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) | 1.50% | 1.50% | 1.50% | — |
12/11/2019 | Interest Rate on Excess Reserves | 1.55% | 1.55% | 1.55% | — |
12/12/2019 | PPI Final Demand MoM | 0.20% | 0.00% | 0.40% | — |
12/12/2019 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | -0.20% | 0.30% | — |
12/12/2019 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | 0.20% | 0.00% | 0.10% | — |
12/12/2019 | PPI Final Demand YoY | 1.30% | 1.10% | 1.10% | — |
12/12/2019 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 1.70% | 1.30% | 1.60% | — |
12/12/2019 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | — | 1.30% | 1.50% | — |
12/12/2019 | Initial Jobless Claims | 214k | 252k | 203k | — |
12/12/2019 | Continuing Claims | 1678k | 1667k | 1693k | 1698k |
12/12/2019 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | 62.1 | 61.7 | — |
12/12/2019 | Household Change in Net Worth | — | $574b | $1830b | $1862b |
12/13/2019 | Import Price Index MoM | 0.20% | 0.20% | -0.50% | — |
12/13/2019 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | -0.10% | 0.20% | -0.10% | — |
12/13/2019 | Import Price Index YoY | -1.20% | -1.30% | -3.00% | — |
12/13/2019 | Export Price Index MoM | 0.10% | 0.20% | -0.10% | — |
12/13/2019 | Export Price Index YoY | — | -1.30% | -2.20% | -2.30% |
12/13/2019 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 0.50% | 0.20% | 0.30% | 0.40% |
12/13/2019 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 0.40% | 0.10% | 0.20% | 0.30% |
12/13/2019 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 0.40% | 0.00% | 0.10% | 0.20% |
12/13/2019 | Retail Sales Control Group | 0.30% | 0.10% | 0.30% | — |
12/13/2019 | SURVEY REPORT: U.S. Economic Forecasts in Dec. 2019 | ||||
12/13/2019 | Business Inventories | 0.20% | — | 0.00% | — |
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