December 13, 2019 Headlines

Treasury prices are moving higher this morning following a weaker than expected retail sales report for November. The 10-year yield touched 1.95% overnight on the UK election results and media reports that a phase one trade deal had been reached “in principle,” which would include at least partial roll backs of existing US tariffs. The positive sentiment was largely erased when both President Trump and China’s Foreign Ministry disputed those claims. The 10-year yield is now at 1.86%, down 9 bps from the overnight high. Retail sales rose 0.2% m/m in November, well below an expected 0.5% growth rate. The control group, which is used in the GDP calculation, rose just 0.1% from the prior month (0.3% expected). The initial market reaction to the report was negative, and given the significant contribution of personal consumption on the US economy, many economists will likely revise Q4 GDP forecasts lower. At the same time, retailers have suggested that holiday sales are strong this year, so there’s a reasonable chance we see these figured revised higher in the next month.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date	Event	Survey	Actual	Prior	Revised
12/10/2019	NFIB Small Business Optimism	103	104.7	102.4	—
12/10/2019	Nonfarm Productivity	-0.10%	-0.20%	-0.30%	—
12/10/2019	Unit Labor Costs	3.40%	2.50%	3.60%	—
12/11/2019	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	3.80%	-9.20%	—
12/11/2019	CPI MoM	0.20%	0.30%	0.40%	—
12/11/2019	CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM	0.20%	0.20%	0.20%	—
12/11/2019	CPI YoY	2.00%	2.10%	1.80%	—
12/11/2019	CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY	2.30%	2.30%	2.30%	—
12/11/2019	CPI Core Index SA	265.476	265.62	265.011	—
12/11/2019	CPI Index NSA	257.213	257.208	257.346	—
12/11/2019	Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY	—	1.10%	0.90%	1.10%
12/11/2019	Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY	—	1.10%	1.20%	1.40%
12/11/2019	FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)	1.75%	1.75%	1.75%	—
12/11/2019	Monthly Budget Statement	-$206.2b	-$208.8b	-$204.9b	—
12/11/2019	FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)	1.50%	1.50%	1.50%	—
12/11/2019	Interest Rate on Excess Reserves	1.55%	1.55%	1.55%	—
12/12/2019	PPI Final Demand MoM	0.20%	0.00%	0.40%	—
12/12/2019	PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM	0.20%	-0.20%	0.30%	—
12/12/2019	PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM	0.20%	0.00%	0.10%	—
12/12/2019	PPI Final Demand YoY	1.30%	1.10%	1.10%	—
12/12/2019	PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY	1.70%	1.30%	1.60%	—
12/12/2019	PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY	—	1.30%	1.50%	—
12/12/2019	Initial Jobless Claims	214k	252k	203k	—
12/12/2019	Continuing Claims	1678k	1667k	1693k	1698k
12/12/2019	Bloomberg Consumer Comfort	—	62.1	61.7	—
12/12/2019	Household Change in Net Worth	—	$574b	$1830b	$1862b
12/13/2019	Import Price Index MoM	0.20%	0.20%	-0.50%	—
12/13/2019	Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM	-0.10%	0.20%	-0.10%	—
12/13/2019	Import Price Index YoY	-1.20%	-1.30%	-3.00%	—
12/13/2019	Export Price Index MoM	0.10%	0.20%	-0.10%	—
12/13/2019	Export Price Index YoY	—	-1.30%	-2.20%	-2.30%
12/13/2019	Retail Sales Advance MoM	0.50%	0.20%	0.30%	0.40%
12/13/2019	Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM	0.40%	0.10%	0.20%	0.30%
12/13/2019	Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas	0.40%	0.00%	0.10%	0.20%
12/13/2019	Retail Sales Control Group	0.30%	0.10%	0.30%	—
12/13/2019	SURVEY REPORT: U.S. Economic Forecasts in Dec. 2019
12/13/2019	Business Inventories	0.20%	—	0.00%	—

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