December 13, 2021 Headlines

Long-end Treasury yields are 2-3 basis points lower following a quiet overnight session ahead of a slew of central bank meetings this week. Wednesday’s FOMC meeting will perhaps garner the most attention, but there are close to 20 other central banks holding meetings this week, including the European Central Bank and Bank of England. The Fed is expected to announce an accelerated pace of bond purchase tapering just one month after announcing the initial plan. If monthly tapering were increased to $30 billion per month, the program should wind down by mid-March next year. Inflation worries are clearly at the forefront of most central bank discussions at this point, and any surprise decisions could clearly spark additional rate and equity volatility.

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurv(M)ActualPriorRevised
12/14/21NFIB Small Business Optimism98.498.2
12/14/21PPI Final Demand MoM0.50%0.60%
12/14/21PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.40%0.40%
12/14/21PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.40%0.40%
12/14/21PPI Final Demand YoY9.20%8.60%
12/14/21PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY7.20%6.80%
12/14/21PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY6.20%
12/15/21MBA Mortgage Applications2.00%
12/15/21Empire Manufacturing2530.9
12/15/21Retail Sales Advance MoM0.80%1.70%
12/15/21Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.90%1.70%
12/15/21Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.80%1.40%
12/15/21Retail Sales Control Group0.70%1.60%
12/15/21Import Price Index MoM0.70%1.20%
12/15/21Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.40%0.50%
12/15/21Import Price Index YoY11.50%10.70%
12/15/21Export Price Index MoM0.50%1.50%
12/15/21Export Price Index YoY18.00%
12/15/21Business Inventories1.10%0.70%
12/15/21NAHB Housing Market Index8483
12/15/21FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)0.00%0.00%
12/15/21FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)0.25%0.25%
12/15/21Interest on Reserve Balances Rate0.15%0.15%
12/15/21Total Net TIC Flows-$26.8b
12/15/21Net Long-term TIC Flows$26.3b
12/16/21Initial Jobless Claims198k184k
12/16/21Continuing Claims1960k1992k
12/16/21Housing Starts1565k1520k
12/16/21Building Permits1660k1650k1653k
12/16/21Housing Starts MoM3.00%-0.70%
12/16/21Building Permits MoM0.40%4.00%4.20%
12/16/21Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook3039
12/16/21Industrial Production MoM0.70%1.60%
12/16/21Capacity Utilization76.80%76.40%
12/16/21Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.70%1.20%
12/16/21Langer Consumer Comfort51
12/16/21Markit US Manufacturing PMI58.558.3
12/16/21Markit US Composite PMI57.2
12/16/21Markit US Services PMI58.858
12/16/21Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity2524
12/17/21Bloomberg Dec. United States Economic Survey

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