Treasury prices have turned higher in response to dovish comments from the European Central Bank (ECB) this morning. In his post-meeting press conference, ECB President Mario Draghi suggested that the balance of risks is “moving to the downside,” coinciding with downward revisions to growth and inflation projections for this year and next.  European equity markets are modestly higher, and S&P 500 futures are up 4 points. News reports suggest positive progress is being made in U.S./China trade negotiations, but there still appears to be a long way to go before a substantive agreement is reached. That said, the general tone from leaders on both sides seems much improved from a few weeks ago.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group


12/10JOLTS Job Openings710070797009
12/11NFIB Small Business Optimism107104.8107.4
12/11PPI Final Demand MoM0.00%0.10%0.60%
12/11PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.10%0.30%0.50%
12/11PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.20%0.30%0.20%
12/11PPI Final Demand YoY2.50%2.50%2.90%
12/11PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.50%2.70%2.60%
12/11PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY2.80%2.80%
12/12MBA Mortgage Applications1.60%2.00%
12/12CPI MoM0.00%0.00%0.30%
12/12CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.20%0.20%
12/12CPI YoY2.20%2.20%2.50%
12/12CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.20%2.20%2.10%
12/12CPI Index NSA252.006252.038252.885
12/12CPI Core Index SA259.412259.481258.939
12/12Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY0.50%0.90%
12/12Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY0.80%0.70%
12/13Import Price Index MoM-1.00%-1.60%0.50%
12/13Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM-0.10%-0.30%0.20%
12/13Import Price Index YoY1.30%0.70%3.50%
12/13Export Price Index MoM-0.30%-0.90%0.40%
12/13Export Price Index YoY1.80%3.10%
12/13Initial Jobless Claims226k206k231k
12/13Continuing Claims1649k1661k1631k
12/13Bloomberg Consumer Comfort60.3
12/13Monthly Budget Statement-$199.0b-$100.5b
12/14Retail Sales Advance MoM0.10%0.80%
12/14Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.20%0.70%
12/14Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.40%0.30%
12/14Retail Sales Control Group0.50%0.30%
12/14Industrial Production MoM0.30%0.10%
12/14Capacity Utilization78.60%78.40%
12/14Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.30%0.30%
12/14/2018 09:45Bloomberg Dec. United States Economic Survey
12/14/2018 09:45Markit US Composite PMI54.7
12/14/2018 09:45Markit US Manufacturing PMI5555.3
12/14/2018 09:45Markit US Services PMI54.654.7
12/14/2018 10:00Business Inventories0.60%0.30%