Treasury prices have turned higher in response to dovish comments from the European Central Bank (ECB) this morning. In his post-meeting press conference, ECB President Mario Draghi suggested that the balance of risks is “moving to the downside,” coinciding with downward revisions to growth and inflation projections for this year and next. European equity markets are modestly higher, and S&P 500 futures are up 4 points. News reports suggest positive progress is being made in U.S./China trade negotiations, but there still appears to be a long way to go before a substantive agreement is reached. That said, the general tone from leaders on both sides seems much improved from a few weeks ago.
Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior |
| 12/10 | JOLTS Job Openings | 7100 | 7079 | 7009 |
| 12/11 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | 107 | 104.8 | 107.4 |
| 12/11 | PPI Final Demand MoM | 0.00% | 0.10% | 0.60% |
| 12/11 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.10% | 0.30% | 0.50% |
| 12/11 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | 0.20% | 0.30% | 0.20% |
| 12/11 | PPI Final Demand YoY | 2.50% | 2.50% | 2.90% |
| 12/11 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.50% | 2.70% | 2.60% |
| 12/11 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | — | 2.80% | 2.80% |
| 12/12 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | 1.60% | 2.00% |
| 12/12 | CPI MoM | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.30% |
| 12/12 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | 0.20% | 0.20% |
| 12/12 | CPI YoY | 2.20% | 2.20% | 2.50% |
| 12/12 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.20% | 2.20% | 2.10% |
| 12/12 | CPI Index NSA | 252.006 | 252.038 | 252.885 |
| 12/12 | CPI Core Index SA | 259.412 | 259.481 | 258.939 |
| 12/12 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | 0.50% | 0.90% |
| 12/12 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | 0.80% | 0.70% |
| 12/13 | Import Price Index MoM | -1.00% | -1.60% | 0.50% |
| 12/13 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | -0.10% | -0.30% | 0.20% |
| 12/13 | Import Price Index YoY | 1.30% | 0.70% | 3.50% |
| 12/13 | Export Price Index MoM | -0.30% | -0.90% | 0.40% |
| 12/13 | Export Price Index YoY | — | 1.80% | 3.10% |
| 12/13 | Initial Jobless Claims | 226k | 206k | 231k |
| 12/13 | Continuing Claims | 1649k | 1661k | 1631k |
| 12/13 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 60.3 |
| 12/13 | Monthly Budget Statement | -$199.0b | — | -$100.5b |
| 12/14 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 0.10% | — | 0.80% |
| 12/14 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.70% |
| 12/14 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 0.40% | — | 0.30% |
| 12/14 | Retail Sales Control Group | 0.50% | — | 0.30% |
| 12/14 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.10% |
| 12/14 | Capacity Utilization | 78.60% | — | 78.40% |
| 12/14 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | 0.30% | — | 0.30% |
| 12/14/2018 09:45 | Bloomberg Dec. United States Economic Survey | |||
| 12/14/2018 09:45 | Markit US Composite PMI | — | — | 54.7 |
| 12/14/2018 09:45 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | 55 | — | 55.3 |
| 12/14/2018 09:45 | Markit US Services PMI | 54.6 | — | 54.7 |
| 12/14/2018 10:00 | Business Inventories | 0.60% | — | 0.30% |