Treasury yields are up roughly 2 bps across the curve this morning on the back of higher oil prices. Marco Rubio threw a wrench in the tax reform process yesterday afternoon, announcing that he is a no vote on the tax bill unless the bill includes a more generous child tax credit. The Florida senator is specifically looking for increased refundability which would allow individuals to receive a tax refund if the credit exceeds their tax liability. Given Rubio’s no vote and uncertainty around how a handful of Republican senators will vote, Vice President Pence had to delay his Israel trip in order to cast a potential tie breaking vote in the Senate. Despite all of this, GOP leadership remain confident that they will able to get a bill on President Trump’s desk before Christmas.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

DateEventSurv(M)ActualPriorRevised
12/11JOLTS Job Openings6135599660936177
12/12NFIB Small Business Optimism104107.5103.8
12/12PPI Final Demand MoM0.30%0.40%0.40%
12/12PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.30%0.40%
12/12PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.20%0.40%0.20%
12/12PPI Final Demand YoY2.90%3.10%2.80%
12/12PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.40%2.40%2.40%
12/12PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY2.40%2.30%
12/12Monthly Budget Statement-$134.5b-$138.5b-$136.7b
12/13MBA Mortgage Applications-2.30%4.70%
12/13CPI MoM0.40%0.40%0.10%
12/13CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.10%0.20%
12/13CPI YoY2.20%2.20%2.00%
12/13CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY1.80%1.70%1.80%
12/13CPI Core Index SA253.932253.724253.428
12/13CPI Index NSA246.816246.669246.663
12/13Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY0.80%0.40%0.30%
12/13Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY0.20%0.40%0.20%
12/13FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)1.50%1.50%1.25%
12/13FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)1.25%1.25%1.00%
12/14Initial Jobless Claims236k225k236k
12/14Continuing Claims1900k1886k1908k1913k
12/14Retail Sales Advance MoM0.30%0.80%0.20%0.50%
12/14Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.60%1.00%0.10%0.40%
12/14Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.40%0.80%0.30%0.40%
12/14Retail Sales Control Group0.40%0.80%0.30%0.40%
12/14Import Price Index MoM0.70%0.70%0.20%0.10%
12/14Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.10%0.10%0.10%
12/14Import Price Index YoY3.20%3.10%2.50%2.30%
12/14Export Price Index MoM0.30%0.50%0.00%0.10%
12/14Export Price Index YoY3.10%2.70%
12/14Bloomberg Dec. United States Economic Survey (Table)
12/14Markit US Manufacturing PMI53.95553.9
12/14Markit US Services PMI54.752.454.5
12/14Markit US Composite PMI5354.5
12/14Bloomberg Consumer Comfort51.352.3
12/14Business Inventories-0.10%-0.10%0.00%
12/15Empire Manufacturing18.71819.4
12/15Industrial Production MoM0.30%0.20%0.90%1.20%
12/15Capacity Utilization77.20%77.10%77.00%
12/15Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.30%0.20%1.30%1.40%
12/15Total Net TIC Flows-$51.3b
12/15Net Long-term TIC Flows$80.9b