Treasury yields are up roughly 2 bps across the curve this morning on the back of higher oil prices. Marco Rubio threw a wrench in the tax reform process yesterday afternoon, announcing that he is a no vote on the tax bill unless the bill includes a more generous child tax credit. The Florida senator is specifically looking for increased refundability which would allow individuals to receive a tax refund if the credit exceeds their tax liability. Given Rubio’s no vote and uncertainty around how a handful of Republican senators will vote, Vice President Pence had to delay his Israel trip in order to cast a potential tie breaking vote in the Senate. Despite all of this, GOP leadership remain confident that they will able to get a bill on President Trump’s desk before Christmas.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

Date Event Surv(M) Actual Prior Revised
12/11 JOLTS Job Openings 6135 5996 6093 6177
12/12 NFIB Small Business Optimism 104 107.5 103.8
12/12 PPI Final Demand MoM 0.30% 0.40% 0.40%
12/12 PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.20% 0.30% 0.40%
12/12 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM 0.20% 0.40% 0.20%
12/12 PPI Final Demand YoY 2.90% 3.10% 2.80%
12/12 PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 2.40% 2.40% 2.40%
12/12 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY 2.40% 2.30%
12/12 Monthly Budget Statement -$134.5b -$138.5b -$136.7b
12/13 MBA Mortgage Applications -2.30% 4.70%
12/13 CPI MoM 0.40% 0.40% 0.10%
12/13 CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.20% 0.10% 0.20%
12/13 CPI YoY 2.20% 2.20% 2.00%
12/13 CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 1.80% 1.70% 1.80%
12/13 CPI Core Index SA 253.932 253.724 253.428
12/13 CPI Index NSA 246.816 246.669 246.663
12/13 Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY 0.80% 0.40% 0.30%
12/13 Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY 0.20% 0.40% 0.20%
12/13 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 1.50% 1.50% 1.25%
12/13 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 1.25% 1.25% 1.00%
12/14 Initial Jobless Claims 236k 225k 236k
12/14 Continuing Claims 1900k 1886k 1908k 1913k
12/14 Retail Sales Advance MoM 0.30% 0.80% 0.20% 0.50%
12/14 Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM 0.60% 1.00% 0.10% 0.40%
12/14 Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas 0.40% 0.80% 0.30% 0.40%
12/14 Retail Sales Control Group 0.40% 0.80% 0.30% 0.40%
12/14 Import Price Index MoM 0.70% 0.70% 0.20% 0.10%
12/14 Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM 0.10% 0.10% 0.10%
12/14 Import Price Index YoY 3.20% 3.10% 2.50% 2.30%
12/14 Export Price Index MoM 0.30% 0.50% 0.00% 0.10%
12/14 Export Price Index YoY 3.10% 2.70%
12/14 Bloomberg Dec. United States Economic Survey (Table)
12/14 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 53.9 55 53.9
12/14 Markit US Services PMI 54.7 52.4 54.5
12/14 Markit US Composite PMI 53 54.5
12/14 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 51.3 52.3
12/14 Business Inventories -0.10% -0.10% 0.00%
12/15 Empire Manufacturing 18.7 18 19.4
12/15 Industrial Production MoM 0.30% 0.20% 0.90% 1.20%
12/15 Capacity Utilization 77.20% 77.10% 77.00%
12/15 Manufacturing (SIC) Production 0.30% 0.20% 1.30% 1.40%
12/15 Total Net TIC Flows -$51.3b
12/15 Net Long-term TIC Flows $80.9b