Treasury yields are up roughly 2 bps across the curve this morning on the back of higher oil prices. Marco Rubio threw a wrench in the tax reform process yesterday afternoon, announcing that he is a no vote on the tax bill unless the bill includes a more generous child tax credit. The Florida senator is specifically looking for increased refundability which would allow individuals to receive a tax refund if the credit exceeds their tax liability. Given Rubio’s no vote and uncertainty around how a handful of Republican senators will vote, Vice President Pence had to delay his Israel trip in order to cast a potential tie breaking vote in the Senate. Despite all of this, GOP leadership remain confident that they will able to get a bill on President Trump’s desk before Christmas.
Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group
| Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 12/11 | JOLTS Job Openings | 6135 | 5996 | 6093 | 6177 |
| 12/12 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | 104 | 107.5 | 103.8 | — |
| 12/12 | PPI Final Demand MoM | 0.30% | 0.40% | 0.40% | — |
| 12/12 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | 0.30% | 0.40% | — |
| 12/12 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | 0.20% | 0.40% | 0.20% | — |
| 12/12 | PPI Final Demand YoY | 2.90% | 3.10% | 2.80% | — |
| 12/12 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.40% | 2.40% | 2.40% | — |
| 12/12 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | — | 2.40% | 2.30% | — |
| 12/12 | Monthly Budget Statement | -$134.5b | -$138.5b | -$136.7b | — |
| 12/13 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -2.30% | 4.70% | — |
| 12/13 | CPI MoM | 0.40% | 0.40% | 0.10% | — |
| 12/13 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | 0.10% | 0.20% | — |
| 12/13 | CPI YoY | 2.20% | 2.20% | 2.00% | — |
| 12/13 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 1.80% | 1.70% | 1.80% | — |
| 12/13 | CPI Core Index SA | 253.932 | 253.724 | 253.428 | — |
| 12/13 | CPI Index NSA | 246.816 | 246.669 | 246.663 | — |
| 12/13 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | 0.80% | 0.40% | 0.30% |
| 12/13 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | 0.20% | 0.40% | 0.20% |
| 12/13 | FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) | 1.50% | 1.50% | 1.25% | — |
| 12/13 | FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) | 1.25% | 1.25% | 1.00% | — |
| 12/14 | Initial Jobless Claims | 236k | 225k | 236k | — |
| 12/14 | Continuing Claims | 1900k | 1886k | 1908k | 1913k |
| 12/14 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 0.30% | 0.80% | 0.20% | 0.50% |
| 12/14 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 0.60% | 1.00% | 0.10% | 0.40% |
| 12/14 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 0.40% | 0.80% | 0.30% | 0.40% |
| 12/14 | Retail Sales Control Group | 0.40% | 0.80% | 0.30% | 0.40% |
| 12/14 | Import Price Index MoM | 0.70% | 0.70% | 0.20% | 0.10% |
| 12/14 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | 0.10% | 0.10% | 0.10% | — |
| 12/14 | Import Price Index YoY | 3.20% | 3.10% | 2.50% | 2.30% |
| 12/14 | Export Price Index MoM | 0.30% | 0.50% | 0.00% | 0.10% |
| 12/14 | Export Price Index YoY | — | 3.10% | 2.70% | — |
| 12/14 | Bloomberg Dec. United States Economic Survey (Table) | ||||
| 12/14 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | 53.9 | 55 | 53.9 | — |
| 12/14 | Markit US Services PMI | 54.7 | 52.4 | 54.5 | — |
| 12/14 | Markit US Composite PMI | — | 53 | 54.5 | — |
| 12/14 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | 51.3 | 52.3 | — |
| 12/14 | Business Inventories | -0.10% | -0.10% | 0.00% | — |
| 12/15 | Empire Manufacturing | 18.7 | 18 | 19.4 | — |
| 12/15 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.30% | 0.20% | 0.90% | 1.20% |
| 12/15 | Capacity Utilization | 77.20% | 77.10% | 77.00% | — |
| 12/15 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | 0.30% | 0.20% | 1.30% | 1.40% |
| 12/15 | Total Net TIC Flows | — | — | -$51.3b | — |
| 12/15 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | — | — | $80.9b | — |