December 15, 2020 Headlines

Equities are moving higher this morning, catalyzed by vaccine shipments as well as progressing stimulus talks. Treasuries are selling off pushing the curve roughly a basis point higher. The long-term outlook is positive given vaccine development, but the path forward likely remains bumpy with COVID cases continuing to rise which could result in another round of lockdowns. The Fed is meeting today and tomorrow and an investors will be looking for more guidance around its asset purchases.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

Date	Event	Surv(M)	Actual	Prior	Revised
12/15/20	Empire Manufacturing	6.3	4.9	6.3	—
12/15/20	Import Price Index MoM	0.30%	0.10%	-0.10%	—
12/15/20	Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM	0.20%	0.00%	0.00%	-0.10%
12/15/20	Import Price Index YoY	-0.90%	-1.00%	-1.00%	—
12/15/20	Export Price Index MoM	0.20%	0.60%	0.20%	—
12/15/20	Export Price Index YoY	—	-1.10%	-1.60%	—
12/15/20	Industrial Production MoM	0.30%	0.40%	1.10%	0.90%
12/15/20	Capacity Utilization	73.00%	73.30%	72.80%	73.00%
12/15/20	Manufacturing (SIC) Production	0.40%	0.80%	1.00%	1.10%
12/15/20	Net Long-term TIC Flows	—	—	$108.9b	—
12/15/20	Total Net TIC Flows	—	—	-$79.9b	—
12/16/20	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	—	-1.20%	—
12/16/20	Retail Sales Advance MoM	-0.30%	—	0.30%	—
12/16/20	Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM	0.10%	—	0.20%	—
12/16/20	Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas	0.10%	—	0.20%	—
12/16/20	Retail Sales Control Group	0.10%	—	0.10%	—
12/16/20	Markit US Manufacturing PMI	55.8	—	56.7	—
12/16/20	Markit US Services PMI	55.9	—	58.4	—
12/16/20	Markit US Composite PMI	—	—	58.6	—
12/16/20	Business Inventories	0.60%	—	0.70%	—
12/16/20	NAHB Housing Market Index	88	—	90	—
12/16/20	FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)	0.25%	—	0.25%	—
12/16/20	FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)	0.00%	—	0.00%	—
12/16/20	Interest Rate on Excess Reserves	0.10%	—	0.10%	—
12/17/20	Building Permits	1560k	—	1545k	1544k
12/17/20	Building Permits MoM	1.00%	—	0.00%	-0.10%
12/17/20	Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook	20	—	26.3	—
12/17/20	Housing Starts	1535k	—	1530k	—
12/17/20	Initial Jobless Claims	815k	—	853k	—
12/17/20	Housing Starts MoM	0.30%	—	4.90%	—
12/17/20	Continuing Claims	5700k	—	5757k	—
12/17/20	Bloomberg Economic Expectations	—	—	43	—
12/17/20	Bloomberg Consumer Comfort	—	—	49	—
12/17/20	Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity	9	—	11	—
12/18/20	Current Account Balance	-$187.0b	—	-$170.5b	—
12/18/20	Leading Index	0.50%	—	0.70%	—

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