December 15, 2020 Headlines

Equities are moving higher this morning, catalyzed by vaccine shipments as well as progressing stimulus talks. Treasuries are selling off pushing the curve roughly a basis point higher. The long-term outlook is positive given vaccine development, but the path forward likely remains bumpy with COVID cases continuing to rise which could result in another round of lockdowns. The Fed is meeting today and tomorrow and an investors will be looking for more guidance around its asset purchases.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

12/15/20Empire Manufacturing6.34.96.3
12/15/20Import Price Index MoM0.30%0.10%-0.10%
12/15/20Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.20%0.00%0.00%-0.10%
12/15/20Import Price Index YoY-0.90%-1.00%-1.00%
12/15/20Export Price Index MoM0.20%0.60%0.20%
12/15/20Export Price Index YoY-1.10%-1.60%
12/15/20Industrial Production MoM0.30%0.40%1.10%0.90%
12/15/20Capacity Utilization73.00%73.30%72.80%73.00%
12/15/20Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.40%0.80%1.00%1.10%
12/15/20Net Long-term TIC Flows$108.9b
12/15/20Total Net TIC Flows-$79.9b
12/16/20MBA Mortgage Applications-1.20%
12/16/20Retail Sales Advance MoM-0.30%0.30%
12/16/20Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.10%0.20%
12/16/20Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.10%0.20%
12/16/20Retail Sales Control Group0.10%0.10%
12/16/20Markit US Manufacturing PMI55.856.7
12/16/20Markit US Services PMI55.958.4
12/16/20Markit US Composite PMI58.6
12/16/20Business Inventories0.60%0.70%
12/16/20NAHB Housing Market Index8890
12/16/20FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)0.25%0.25%
12/16/20FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)0.00%0.00%
12/16/20Interest Rate on Excess Reserves0.10%0.10%
12/17/20Building Permits1560k1545k1544k
12/17/20Building Permits MoM1.00%0.00%-0.10%
12/17/20Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook2026.3
12/17/20Housing Starts1535k1530k
12/17/20Initial Jobless Claims815k853k
12/17/20Housing Starts MoM0.30%4.90%
12/17/20Continuing Claims5700k5757k
12/17/20Bloomberg Economic Expectations43
12/17/20Bloomberg Consumer Comfort49
12/17/20Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity911
12/18/20Current Account Balance-$187.0b-$170.5b
12/18/20Leading Index0.50%0.70%

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