December 15, 2020 Headlines

Equities are moving higher this morning, catalyzed by vaccine shipments as well as progressing stimulus talks. Treasuries are selling off pushing the curve roughly a basis point higher. The long-term outlook is positive given vaccine development, but the path forward likely remains bumpy with COVID cases continuing to rise which could result in another round of lockdowns. The Fed is meeting today and tomorrow and an investors will be looking for more guidance around its asset purchases.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

Date Event Surv(M) Actual Prior Revised
12/15/20 Empire Manufacturing 6.3 4.9 6.3
12/15/20 Import Price Index MoM 0.30% 0.10% -0.10%
12/15/20 Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM 0.20% 0.00% 0.00% -0.10%
12/15/20 Import Price Index YoY -0.90% -1.00% -1.00%
12/15/20 Export Price Index MoM 0.20% 0.60% 0.20%
12/15/20 Export Price Index YoY -1.10% -1.60%
12/15/20 Industrial Production MoM 0.30% 0.40% 1.10% 0.90%
12/15/20 Capacity Utilization 73.00% 73.30% 72.80% 73.00%
12/15/20 Manufacturing (SIC) Production 0.40% 0.80% 1.00% 1.10%
12/15/20 Net Long-term TIC Flows $108.9b
12/15/20 Total Net TIC Flows -$79.9b
12/16/20 MBA Mortgage Applications -1.20%
12/16/20 Retail Sales Advance MoM -0.30% 0.30%
12/16/20 Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM 0.10% 0.20%
12/16/20 Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas 0.10% 0.20%
12/16/20 Retail Sales Control Group 0.10% 0.10%
12/16/20 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 55.8 56.7
12/16/20 Markit US Services PMI 55.9 58.4
12/16/20 Markit US Composite PMI 58.6
12/16/20 Business Inventories 0.60% 0.70%
12/16/20 NAHB Housing Market Index 88 90
12/16/20 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 0.25% 0.25%
12/16/20 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 0.00% 0.00%
12/16/20 Interest Rate on Excess Reserves 0.10% 0.10%
12/17/20 Building Permits 1560k 1545k 1544k
12/17/20 Building Permits MoM 1.00% 0.00% -0.10%
12/17/20 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 20 26.3
12/17/20 Housing Starts 1535k 1530k
12/17/20 Initial Jobless Claims 815k 853k
12/17/20 Housing Starts MoM 0.30% 4.90%
12/17/20 Continuing Claims 5700k 5757k
12/17/20 Bloomberg Economic Expectations 43
12/17/20 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 49
12/17/20 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity 9 11
12/18/20 Current Account Balance -$187.0b -$170.5b
12/18/20 Leading Index 0.50% 0.70%

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