December 16, 2020 Headlines

Treasury yields are higher across the curve this morning despite a disappointing November retail sales report. A strong flash December PMI report for the Eurozone, including both manufacturing and services components, led the rates sell-off overnight, and encouraging comments from Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell regarding stimulus negotiations have also contributed to this morning’s tone. Advance retail sales fell 1.1% in November, well below expectations for a more modest 0.3% decline. Ex-auto sales were expected to increase 0.1% over the month but instead fell 0.9%, and the retail sales control group, which is used in the GDP calculation, fell 0.5% versus expectations of a 0.2% gain. This will likely lead many economists to soften their Q4 GDP forecast. The FOMC decision will be released this afternoon. While no major policy changes are expected, the committee discussed potentially enhancing forward guidance for asset purchases during the last meeting on November 5, and they will also release an updated Summary of Economic Projections.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Time Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
12/16/2020 MBA Mortgage Applications 1.10% -1.20%
12/16/2020 Retail Sales Advance MoM -0.30% -1.10% 0.30% -0.10%
12/16/2020 Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM 0.10% -0.90% 0.20% -0.10%
12/16/2020 Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas 0.10% -0.80% 0.20% -0.10%
12/16/2020 Retail Sales Control Group 0.20% -0.50% 0.10% -0.10%
12/16/2020 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 55.8 56.7
12/16/2020 Markit US Services PMI 55.9 58.4
12/16/2020 Markit US Composite PMI 58.6
12/16/2020 Business Inventories 0.60% 0.70%
12/16/2020 NAHB Housing Market Index 88 90
12/16/2020 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 0.25% 0.25%
12/16/2020 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 0.00% 0.00%
12/16/2020 Interest Rate on Excess Reserves 0.10% 0.10%
12/17/2020 Building Permits 1560k 1545k 1544k
12/17/2020 Building Permits MoM 1.00% 0.00% -0.10%
12/17/2020 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 20 26.3
12/17/2020 Housing Starts 1535k 1530k
12/17/2020 Initial Jobless Claims 813k 853k
12/17/2020 Housing Starts MoM 0.30% 4.90%
12/17/2020 Continuing Claims 5700k 5757k
12/17/2020 Bloomberg Economic Expectations 43
12/17/2020 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 49
12/17/2020 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity 9 11
12/18/2020 Current Account Balance -$187.0b -$170.5b
12/18/2020 Leading Index 0.50% 0.70%

Subscribe Today!

Subscribe to our email list and get the latest articles and announcements from ALM First.

ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content. Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First. Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.