Treasury yields are higher across the curve this morning despite a disappointing November retail sales report. A strong flash December PMI report for the Eurozone, including both manufacturing and services components, led the rates sell-off overnight, and encouraging comments from Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell regarding stimulus negotiations have also contributed to this morning’s tone. Advance retail sales fell 1.1% in November, well below expectations for a more modest 0.3% decline. Ex-auto sales were expected to increase 0.1% over the month but instead fell 0.9%, and the retail sales control group, which is used in the GDP calculation, fell 0.5% versus expectations of a 0.2% gain. This will likely lead many economists to soften their Q4 GDP forecast. The FOMC decision will be released this afternoon. While no major policy changes are expected, the committee discussed potentially enhancing forward guidance for asset purchases during the last meeting on November 5, and they will also release an updated Summary of Economic Projections.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
Date Time | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
12/16/2020 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | 1.10% | -1.20% | — |
12/16/2020 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | -0.30% | -1.10% | 0.30% | -0.10% |
12/16/2020 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 0.10% | -0.90% | 0.20% | -0.10% |
12/16/2020 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 0.10% | -0.80% | 0.20% | -0.10% |
12/16/2020 | Retail Sales Control Group | 0.20% | -0.50% | 0.10% | -0.10% |
12/16/2020 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | 55.8 | — | 56.7 | — |
12/16/2020 | Markit US Services PMI | 55.9 | — | 58.4 | — |
12/16/2020 | Markit US Composite PMI | — | — | 58.6 | — |
12/16/2020 | Business Inventories | 0.60% | — | 0.70% | — |
12/16/2020 | NAHB Housing Market Index | 88 | — | 90 | — |
12/16/2020 | FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) | 0.25% | — | 0.25% | — |
12/16/2020 | FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) | 0.00% | — | 0.00% | — |
12/16/2020 | Interest Rate on Excess Reserves | 0.10% | — | 0.10% | — |
12/17/2020 | Building Permits | 1560k | — | 1545k | 1544k |
12/17/2020 | Building Permits MoM | 1.00% | — | 0.00% | -0.10% |
12/17/2020 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | 20 | — | 26.3 | — |
12/17/2020 | Housing Starts | 1535k | — | 1530k | — |
12/17/2020 | Initial Jobless Claims | 813k | — | 853k | — |
12/17/2020 | Housing Starts MoM | 0.30% | — | 4.90% | — |
12/17/2020 | Continuing Claims | 5700k | — | 5757k | — |
12/17/2020 | Bloomberg Economic Expectations | — | — | 43 | — |
12/17/2020 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 49 | — |
12/17/2020 | Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity | 9 | — | 11 | — |
12/18/2020 | Current Account Balance | -$187.0b | — | -$170.5b | — |
12/18/2020 | Leading Index | 0.50% | — | 0.70% | — |
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