Treasury prices are drifting higher this morning amid a modest risk-off tone. Brexit is back in the headlines following Boris Johnson’s big election win. The UK prime minister is ruling out an extension to the Brexit transition deadline of December 31, regardless of whether a deal has been reached with European Union officials. In other words, a hard Brexit is back on the table. In fixed income, the 2-year/10-year spread is currently near a 3-month high of 25 bps, and implied interest rate volatility has settled back down to pre-August levels. The latter has been positive for mortgages, with Agency MBS option-adjusted spreads 3-5 bps tighter versus Treasuries on the month.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
12/16/2019 | Empire Manufacturing | 4 | 3.5 | 2.9 | — |
12/16/2019 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | 52.6 | 52.5 | 52.6 | — |
12/16/2019 | Markit US Services PMI | 52 | 52.2 | 51.6 | — |
12/16/2019 | Markit US Composite PMI | — | 52.2 | 52 | — |
12/16/2019 | NAHB Housing Market Index | 70 | 76 | 70 | 71 |
12/16/2019 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | — | $32.5b | $49.5b | — |
12/16/2019 | Total Net TIC Flows | — | -$48.3b | -$37.6b | -$38.1b |
12/17/2019 | Housing Starts | 1345k | 1365k | 1314k | 1323k |
12/17/2019 | Building Permits | 1410k | 1482k | 1461k | — |
12/17/2019 | Housing Starts MoM | 2.40% | 3.20% | 3.80% | 4.50% |
12/17/2019 | Building Permits MoM | -3.50% | 1.40% | 5.00% | — |
12/17/2019 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.90% | 1.10% | -0.80% | -0.90% |
12/17/2019 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | 0.80% | 1.10% | -0.60% | -0.70% |
12/17/2019 | Capacity Utilization | 77.40% | 77.30% | 76.70% | 76.60% |
12/17/2019 | JOLTS Job Openings | 7009 | — | 7024 | — |
12/18/2019 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 3.80% | — |
12/19/2019 | Current Account Balance | -$122.0b | — | -$128.2b | — |
12/19/2019 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | 8 | — | 10.4 | — |
12/19/2019 | Initial Jobless Claims | 225k | — | 252k | — |
12/19/2019 | Continuing Claims | 1676k | — | 1667k | — |
12/19/2019 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 62.1 | — |
12/19/2019 | Bloomberg Economic Expectations | — | — | 51.5 | — |
12/19/2019 | Leading Index | 0.10% | — | -0.10% | — |
12/19/2019 | Existing Home Sales | 5.44m | — | 5.46m | — |
12/19/2019 | Existing Home Sales MoM | -0.40% | — | 1.90% | — |
12/20/2019 | GDP Annualized QoQ | 2.10% | — | 2.10% | — |
12/20/2019 | Personal Consumption | 2.90% | — | 2.90% | — |
12/20/2019 | GDP Price Index | 1.80% | — | 1.80% | — |
12/20/2019 | Core PCE QoQ | 2.10% | — | 2.10% | — |
12/20/2019 | Personal Income | 0.30% | — | 0.00% | — |
12/20/2019 | Personal Spending | 0.40% | — | 0.30% | — |
12/20/2019 | Real Personal Spending | 0.20% | — | 0.10% | — |
12/20/2019 | PCE Deflator MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.20% | — |
12/20/2019 | PCE Deflator YoY | 1.40% | — | 1.30% | — |
12/20/2019 | PCE Core Deflator MoM | 0.10% | — | 0.10% | — |
12/20/2019 | PCE Core Deflator YoY | 1.50% | — | 1.60% | — |
12/20/2019 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 99.2 | — | 99.2 | — |
12/20/2019 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | — | 115.2 | — |
12/20/2019 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 88.9 | — |
12/20/2019 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.40% | — |
12/20/2019 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.30% | — |
12/20/2019 | Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity | -3 | — | -3 | — |
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