There were no major headlines over the weekend, but risk markets continue to struggle to gain any positive momentum. S&P 500 futures are currently down 6 points, and Treasury prices are grinding higher. The major focus for this week will be Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. A rate hike is still the general expectation (75% probability based on market pricing), but market participants will be more focused on the Fed’s guidance. More specifically, the November FOMC minutes suggested a shift in the official statement forward guidance to place greater emphasis on incoming data with regards to future policy decisions. As always, participant projections for future rate hikes (the “dots”) will be closely scrutinized, although Fed leaders have tried more in recent weeks to downplay the market’s attention to these forecasts.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group


12/17Empire Manufacturing2010.923.3
12/17NAHB Housing Market Index6060
12/17Total Net TIC Flows-$29.1b
12/17Net Long-term TIC Flows$30.8b
12/18Housing Starts1226k1228k
12/18Housing Starts MoM-0.20%1.50%
12/18Building Permits1260k1263k
12/18Building Permits MoM-0.40%-0.60%
12/19MBA Mortgage Applications1.60%
12/19Current Account Balance-$125.0b-$101.5b
12/19Existing Home Sales5.20m5.22m
12/19Existing Home Sales MoM-0.40%1.40%
12/19FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)2.50%2.25%
12/19FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)2.25%2.00%
12/19Interest Rate on Excess Reserves2.40%2.20%
12/20Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook1512.9
12/20Initial Jobless Claims217k206k
12/20Continuing Claims1665k1661k
12/20Bloomberg Consumer Comfort59.4
12/20Bloomberg Economic Expectations56
12/20Leading Index0.00%0.10%
12/21GDP Annualized QoQ3.50%3.50%
12/21Personal Consumption3.60%3.60%
12/21GDP Price Index1.70%1.70%
12/21Core PCE QoQ1.50%1.50%
12/21Durable Goods Orders1.60%-4.30%
12/21Durables Ex Transportation0.30%0.20%
12/21Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.20%0.00%
12/21Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.20%0.30%
12/21Personal Income0.30%0.50%
12/21Personal Spending0.30%0.60%
12/21Real Personal Spending0.30%0.40%
12/21PCE Deflator MoM0.00%0.20%
12/21PCE Deflator YoY1.80%2.00%
12/21PCE Core MoM0.20%0.10%
12/21PCE Core YoY1.90%1.80%
12/21U. of Mich. Sentiment97.597.5
12/21U. of Mich. Current Conditions115.2
12/21U. of Mich. Expectations86.1
12/21U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.70%
12/21U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.40%
12/21Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity1315