There were no major headlines over the weekend, but risk markets continue to struggle to gain any positive momentum. S&P 500 futures are currently down 6 points, and Treasury prices are grinding higher. The major focus for this week will be Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. A rate hike is still the general expectation (75% probability based on market pricing), but market participants will be more focused on the Fed’s guidance. More specifically, the November FOMC minutes suggested a shift in the official statement forward guidance to place greater emphasis on incoming data with regards to future policy decisions. As always, participant projections for future rate hikes (the “dots”) will be closely scrutinized, although Fed leaders have tried more in recent weeks to downplay the market’s attention to these forecasts.
Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior |
| 12/17 | Empire Manufacturing | 20 | 10.9 | 23.3 |
| 12/17 | NAHB Housing Market Index | 60 | — | 60 |
| 12/17 | Total Net TIC Flows | — | — | -$29.1b |
| 12/17 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | — | — | $30.8b |
| 12/18 | Housing Starts | 1226k | — | 1228k |
| 12/18 | Housing Starts MoM | -0.20% | — | 1.50% |
| 12/18 | Building Permits | 1260k | — | 1263k |
| 12/18 | Building Permits MoM | -0.40% | — | -0.60% |
| 12/19 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 1.60% |
| 12/19 | Current Account Balance | -$125.0b | — | -$101.5b |
| 12/19 | Existing Home Sales | 5.20m | — | 5.22m |
| 12/19 | Existing Home Sales MoM | -0.40% | — | 1.40% |
| 12/19 | FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) | 2.50% | — | 2.25% |
| 12/19 | FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) | 2.25% | — | 2.00% |
| 12/19 | Interest Rate on Excess Reserves | 2.40% | — | 2.20% |
| 12/20 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | 15 | — | 12.9 |
| 12/20 | Initial Jobless Claims | 217k | — | 206k |
| 12/20 | Continuing Claims | 1665k | — | 1661k |
| 12/20 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 59.4 |
| 12/20 | Bloomberg Economic Expectations | — | — | 56 |
| 12/20 | Leading Index | 0.00% | — | 0.10% |
| 12/21 | GDP Annualized QoQ | 3.50% | — | 3.50% |
| 12/21 | Personal Consumption | 3.60% | — | 3.60% |
| 12/21 | GDP Price Index | 1.70% | — | 1.70% |
| 12/21 | Core PCE QoQ | 1.50% | — | 1.50% |
| 12/21 | Durable Goods Orders | 1.60% | — | -4.30% |
| 12/21 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.30% | — | 0.20% |
| 12/21 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | 0.20% | — | 0.00% |
| 12/21 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | 0.20% | — | 0.30% |
| 12/21 | Personal Income | 0.30% | — | 0.50% |
| 12/21 | Personal Spending | 0.30% | — | 0.60% |
| 12/21 | Real Personal Spending | 0.30% | — | 0.40% |
| 12/21 | PCE Deflator MoM | 0.00% | — | 0.20% |
| 12/21 | PCE Deflator YoY | 1.80% | — | 2.00% |
| 12/21 | PCE Core MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.10% |
| 12/21 | PCE Core YoY | 1.90% | — | 1.80% |
| 12/21 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 97.5 | — | 97.5 |
| 12/21 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | — | 115.2 |
| 12/21 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 86.1 |
| 12/21 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.70% |
| 12/21 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.40% |
| 12/21 | Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity | 13 | — | 15 |