Treasury prices are modestly lower this morning amid a better tone in risk markets. Essentially all major global equity markets are higher today (Nikkei +1.6%, Euro Stoxx +1.3%), and S&P 500 futures are currently up 10 points. The positive market sentiment is primarily attributable to progress on tax reform, with current expectations of a vote tomorrow (and signed into law by the end of the week). There are still concerns being voiced by tax experts regarding the rapid pace of the tax reform process (i.e., lack of thoroughness), and given the party-line vote, comparisons are being drawn to the Democrats’ passage of the Affordable Care Act in 2010. A Wall Street Journal article today discusses this this topic in more detail, suggesting that the structure and details of the likely bill will be a key campaign tool for Democrats for every election until December 2025. This week’s economic calendar is headlined by the November personal income/spending report (includes PCE) on Friday, and trading volumes should begin to slow dramatically as the week progresses.
Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
Date Time | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | |
12/18/2017 | NAHB Housing Market Index | Dec | 70 | 74 | 70 |
12/19/2017 | Housing Starts | Nov | 1249k | — | 1290k |
12/19/2017 | Housing Starts MoM | Nov | -3.20% | — | 13.70% |
12/19/2017 | Building Permits | Nov | 1275k | — | 1297k |
12/19/2017 | Building Permits MoM | Nov | -3.10% | — | 5.90% |
12/19/2017 | Current Account Balance | 3Q | -$116.0b | — | -$123.1b |
12/20/2017 | MBA Mortgage Applications | 15-Dec | — | — | -2.30% |
12/20/2017 | Existing Home Sales | Nov | 5.53m | — | 5.48m |
12/20/2017 | Existing Home Sales MoM | Nov | 0.90% | — | 2.00% |
12/21/2017 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | Dec | 21.5 | — | 22.7 |
12/21/2017 | GDP Annualized QoQ | 3Q T | 3.30% | — | 3.30% |
12/21/2017 | Personal Consumption | 3Q T | 2.30% | — | 2.30% |
12/21/2017 | GDP Price Index | 3Q T | 2.10% | — | 2.10% |
12/21/2017 | Core PCE QoQ | 3Q T | 1.40% | — | 1.40% |
12/21/2017 | Initial Jobless Claims | 16-Dec | 233k | — | 225k |
12/21/2017 | Continuing Claims | 9-Dec | 1900k | — | 1886k |
12/21/2017 | Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index | Nov | 0.6 | — | 0.65 |
12/21/2017 | FHFA House Price Index MoM | Oct | 0.40% | — | 0.30% |
12/21/2017 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | 17-Dec | — | — | 51.3 |
12/21/2017 | Bloomberg Economic Expectations | Dec | — | — | 53 |
12/21/2017 | Leading Index | Nov | 0.40% | — | 1.20% |
12/22/2017 | Personal Income | Nov | 0.40% | — | 0.40% |
12/22/2017 | Personal Spending | Nov | 0.50% | — | 0.30% |
12/22/2017 | Real Personal Spending | Nov | 0.20% | — | 0.10% |
12/22/2017 | PCE Deflator MoM | Nov | 0.30% | — | 0.10% |
12/22/2017 | PCE Deflator YoY | Nov | 1.80% | — | 1.60% |
12/22/2017 | PCE Core MoM | Nov | 0.10% | — | 0.20% |
12/22/2017 | PCE Core YoY | Nov | 1.50% | — | 1.40% |
12/22/2017 | Durable Goods Orders | Nov P | 2.00% | — | -0.80% |
12/22/2017 | Durables Ex Transportation | Nov P | 0.50% | — | 0.90% |
12/22/2017 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | Nov P | 0.50% | — | 0.30% |
12/22/2017 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | Nov P | 0.30% | — | 1.10% |
12/22/2017 | New Home Sales | Nov | 651k | — | 685k |
12/22/2017 | New Home Sales MoM | Nov | -5.00% | — | 6.20% |
12/22/2017 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | Dec F | 97.2 | — | 96.8 |
12/22/2017 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | Dec F | — | — | 115.9 |
12/22/2017 | U. of Mich. Expectations | Dec F | — | — | 84.6 |
12/22/2017 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | Dec F | — | — | 2.80% |
12/22/2017 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | Dec F | — | — | 2.50% |
12/22/2017 | Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity | Dec | 15 | — | 16 |