December 18, 2017

by | Dec 18, 2017 | Beyond the Headlines

Treasury prices are modestly lower this morning amid a better tone in risk markets. Essentially all major global equity markets are higher today (Nikkei +1.6%, Euro Stoxx +1.3%), and S&P 500 futures are currently up 10 points. The positive market sentiment is primarily attributable to progress on tax reform, with current expectations of a vote tomorrow (and signed into law by the end of the week). There are still concerns being voiced by tax experts regarding the rapid pace of the tax reform process (i.e., lack of thoroughness), and given the party-line vote, comparisons are being drawn to the Democrats’ passage of the Affordable Care Act in 2010. A Wall Street Journal article today discusses this this topic in more detail, suggesting that the structure and details of the likely bill will be a key campaign tool for Democrats for every election until December 2025. This week’s economic calendar is headlined by the November personal income/spending report (includes PCE) on Friday, and trading volumes should begin to slow dramatically as the week progresses.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

Date TimeEvent SurveyActualPrior
12/18/2017NAHB Housing Market IndexDec707470
12/19/2017Housing StartsNov1249k—1290k
12/19/2017Housing Starts MoMNov-3.20%—13.70%
12/19/2017Building PermitsNov1275k—1297k
12/19/2017Building Permits MoMNov-3.10%—5.90%
12/19/2017Current Account Balance3Q-$116.0b—-$123.1b
12/20/2017MBA Mortgage Applications15-Dec——-2.30%
12/20/2017Existing Home SalesNov5.53m—5.48m
12/20/2017Existing Home Sales MoMNov0.90%—2.00%
12/21/2017Philadelphia Fed Business OutlookDec21.5—22.7
12/21/2017GDP Annualized QoQ3Q T3.30%—3.30%
12/21/2017Personal Consumption3Q T2.30%—2.30%
12/21/2017GDP Price Index3Q T2.10%—2.10%
12/21/2017Core PCE QoQ3Q T1.40%—1.40%
12/21/2017Initial Jobless Claims16-Dec233k—225k
12/21/2017Continuing Claims9-Dec1900k—1886k
12/21/2017Chicago Fed Nat Activity IndexNov0.6—0.65
12/21/2017FHFA House Price Index MoMOct0.40%—0.30%
12/21/2017Bloomberg Consumer Comfort17-Dec——51.3
12/21/2017Bloomberg Economic ExpectationsDec——53
12/21/2017Leading IndexNov0.40%—1.20%
12/22/2017Personal IncomeNov0.40%—0.40%
12/22/2017Personal SpendingNov0.50%—0.30%
12/22/2017Real Personal SpendingNov0.20%—0.10%
12/22/2017PCE Deflator MoMNov0.30%—0.10%
12/22/2017PCE Deflator YoYNov1.80%—1.60%
12/22/2017PCE Core MoMNov0.10%—0.20%
12/22/2017PCE Core YoYNov1.50%—1.40%
12/22/2017Durable Goods OrdersNov P2.00%—-0.80%
12/22/2017Durables Ex TransportationNov P0.50%—0.90%
12/22/2017Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex AirNov P0.50%—0.30%
12/22/2017Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex AirNov P0.30%—1.10%
12/22/2017New Home SalesNov651k—685k
12/22/2017New Home Sales MoMNov-5.00%—6.20%
12/22/2017U. of Mich. SentimentDec F97.2—96.8
12/22/2017U. of Mich. Current ConditionsDec F——115.9
12/22/2017U. of Mich. ExpectationsDec F——84.6
12/22/2017U. of Mich. 1 Yr InflationDec F——2.80%
12/22/2017U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr InflationDec F——2.50%
12/22/2017Kansas City Fed Manf. ActivityDec15—16