December 18, 2020 Headlines

Treasury yields are grinding slightly lower following a very quiet overnight session as we head deeper into the holiday lulls in financial markets. The latest issue to stall stimulus negotiations is a political fight over the Fed’s lending programs for state and local governments. Congressional leaders were hoping to agree to both fresh stimulus and a short-term funding bill at the same time to avoid a government shutdown following today’s deadline. On the Covid front, media outlets are reporting that Southern California ICU availability is now at 0% with health officials warning that things will get worse. The U.S. Commerce Department has added more than 60 Chinese firms to its blacklist, including the country’s top chipmaker, in an effort “to protect U.S. national security,” among other reasons. The move prohibits U.S. companies from doing business with those entities.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date	Event	Surv(M)	Actual	Prior	Revised
12/15/20	Empire Manufacturing	6.3	4.9	6.3	—
12/15/20	Import Price Index MoM	0.30%	0.10%	-0.10%	—
12/15/20	Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM	0.20%	0.00%	0.00%	-0.10%
12/15/20	Import Price Index YoY	-0.90%	-1.00%	-1.00%	—
12/15/20	Export Price Index MoM	0.20%	0.60%	0.20%	—
12/15/20	Export Price Index YoY	—	-1.10%	-1.60%	—
12/15/20	Industrial Production MoM	0.30%	0.40%	1.10%	0.90%
12/15/20	Capacity Utilization	73.00%	73.30%	72.80%	73.00%
12/15/20	Manufacturing (SIC) Production	0.40%	0.80%	1.00%	1.10%
12/15/20	Net Long-term TIC Flows	—	$51.9b	$108.9b	—
12/15/20	Total Net TIC Flows	—	-$10.4b	-$79.9b	-$80.5b
12/16/20	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	1.10%	-1.20%	—
12/16/20	Retail Sales Advance MoM	-0.30%	-1.10%	0.30%	-0.10%
12/16/20	Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM	0.10%	-0.90%	0.20%	-0.10%
12/16/20	Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas	0.10%	-0.80%	0.20%	-0.10%
12/16/20	Retail Sales Control Group	0.20%	-0.50%	0.10%	-0.10%
12/16/20	Markit US Manufacturing PMI	55.8	56.5	56.7	—
12/16/20	Markit US Services PMI	55.9	55.3	58.4	—
12/16/20	Markit US Composite PMI	—	55.7	58.6	—
12/16/20	Business Inventories	0.60%	0.70%	0.70%	0.80%
12/16/20	NAHB Housing Market Index	88	86	90	—
12/16/20	FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)	0.25%	0.25%	0.25%	—
12/16/20	FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	—
12/16/20	Interest Rate on Excess Reserves	0.10%	0.10%	0.10%	—
12/17/20	Initial Jobless Claims	818k	885k	853k	862k
12/17/20	Continuing Claims	5700k	5508k	5757k	5781k
12/17/20	Housing Starts	1535k	1547k	1530k	1528k
12/17/20	Housing Starts MoM	0.30%	1.20%	4.90%	6.30%
12/17/20	Building Permits	1560k	1639k	1545k	1544k
12/17/20	Building Permits MoM	1.00%	6.20%	0.00%	-0.10%
12/17/20	Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook	20	11.1	26.3	—
12/17/20	Bloomberg Economic Expectations	—	38.5	43	—
12/17/20	Bloomberg Consumer Comfort	—	48.4	49	—
12/17/20	Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity	9	14	11	—
12/18/20	Current Account Balance	-$187.0b	-$178.5b	-$170.5b	-$161.4b
12/18/20	Leading Index	0.50%	—	0.70%	—

Subscribe Today!

Subscribe to our email list and get the latest articles and announcements from ALM First.

Recent Articles

January 26, 2021 Headlines January 26, 2021
January 25, 2021 Headlines January 25, 2021
January 22, 2021 Headlines January 22, 2021

ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content.Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First.Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.