December 18, 2020 Headlines

Treasury yields are grinding slightly lower following a very quiet overnight session as we head deeper into the holiday lulls in financial markets. The latest issue to stall stimulus negotiations is a political fight over the Fed’s lending programs for state and local governments. Congressional leaders were hoping to agree to both fresh stimulus and a short-term funding bill at the same time to avoid a government shutdown following today’s deadline. On the Covid front, media outlets are reporting that Southern California ICU availability is now at 0% with health officials warning that things will get worse. The U.S. Commerce Department has added more than 60 Chinese firms to its blacklist, including the country’s top chipmaker, in an effort “to protect U.S. national security,” among other reasons. The move prohibits U.S. companies from doing business with those entities.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date	Event	Surv(M)	Actual	Prior	Revised
12/15/20	Empire Manufacturing	6.3	4.9	6.3	—
12/15/20	Import Price Index MoM	0.30%	0.10%	-0.10%	—
12/15/20	Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM	0.20%	0.00%	0.00%	-0.10%
12/15/20	Import Price Index YoY	-0.90%	-1.00%	-1.00%	—
12/15/20	Export Price Index MoM	0.20%	0.60%	0.20%	—
12/15/20	Export Price Index YoY	—	-1.10%	-1.60%	—
12/15/20	Industrial Production MoM	0.30%	0.40%	1.10%	0.90%
12/15/20	Capacity Utilization	73.00%	73.30%	72.80%	73.00%
12/15/20	Manufacturing (SIC) Production	0.40%	0.80%	1.00%	1.10%
12/15/20	Net Long-term TIC Flows	—	$51.9b	$108.9b	—
12/15/20	Total Net TIC Flows	—	-$10.4b	-$79.9b	-$80.5b
12/16/20	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	1.10%	-1.20%	—
12/16/20	Retail Sales Advance MoM	-0.30%	-1.10%	0.30%	-0.10%
12/16/20	Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM	0.10%	-0.90%	0.20%	-0.10%
12/16/20	Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas	0.10%	-0.80%	0.20%	-0.10%
12/16/20	Retail Sales Control Group	0.20%	-0.50%	0.10%	-0.10%
12/16/20	Markit US Manufacturing PMI	55.8	56.5	56.7	—
12/16/20	Markit US Services PMI	55.9	55.3	58.4	—
12/16/20	Markit US Composite PMI	—	55.7	58.6	—
12/16/20	Business Inventories	0.60%	0.70%	0.70%	0.80%
12/16/20	NAHB Housing Market Index	88	86	90	—
12/16/20	FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)	0.25%	0.25%	0.25%	—
12/16/20	FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	—
12/16/20	Interest Rate on Excess Reserves	0.10%	0.10%	0.10%	—
12/17/20	Initial Jobless Claims	818k	885k	853k	862k
12/17/20	Continuing Claims	5700k	5508k	5757k	5781k
12/17/20	Housing Starts	1535k	1547k	1530k	1528k
12/17/20	Housing Starts MoM	0.30%	1.20%	4.90%	6.30%
12/17/20	Building Permits	1560k	1639k	1545k	1544k
12/17/20	Building Permits MoM	1.00%	6.20%	0.00%	-0.10%
12/17/20	Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook	20	11.1	26.3	—
12/17/20	Bloomberg Economic Expectations	—	38.5	43	—
12/17/20	Bloomberg Consumer Comfort	—	48.4	49	—
12/17/20	Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity	9	14	11	—
12/18/20	Current Account Balance	-$187.0b	-$178.5b	-$170.5b	-$161.4b
12/18/20	Leading Index	0.50%	—	0.70%	—

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