December 18, 2020 Headlines

Treasury yields are grinding slightly lower following a very quiet overnight session as we head deeper into the holiday lulls in financial markets. The latest issue to stall stimulus negotiations is a political fight over the Fed’s lending programs for state and local governments. Congressional leaders were hoping to agree to both fresh stimulus and a short-term funding bill at the same time to avoid a government shutdown following today’s deadline. On the Covid front, media outlets are reporting that Southern California ICU availability is now at 0% with health officials warning that things will get worse. The U.S. Commerce Department has added more than 60 Chinese firms to its blacklist, including the country’s top chipmaker, in an effort “to protect U.S. national security,” among other reasons. The move prohibits U.S. companies from doing business with those entities.  

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurv(M)ActualPriorRevised
12/15/20Empire Manufacturing6.34.96.3
12/15/20Import Price Index MoM0.30%0.10%-0.10%
12/15/20Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.20%0.00%0.00%-0.10%
12/15/20Import Price Index YoY-0.90%-1.00%-1.00%
12/15/20Export Price Index MoM0.20%0.60%0.20%
12/15/20Export Price Index YoY-1.10%-1.60%
12/15/20Industrial Production MoM0.30%0.40%1.10%0.90%
12/15/20Capacity Utilization73.00%73.30%72.80%73.00%
12/15/20Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.40%0.80%1.00%1.10%
12/15/20Net Long-term TIC Flows$51.9b$108.9b
12/15/20Total Net TIC Flows-$10.4b-$79.9b-$80.5b
12/16/20MBA Mortgage Applications1.10%-1.20%
12/16/20Retail Sales Advance MoM-0.30%-1.10%0.30%-0.10%
12/16/20Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.10%-0.90%0.20%-0.10%
12/16/20Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.10%-0.80%0.20%-0.10%
12/16/20Retail Sales Control Group0.20%-0.50%0.10%-0.10%
12/16/20Markit US Manufacturing PMI55.856.556.7
12/16/20Markit US Services PMI55.955.358.4
12/16/20Markit US Composite PMI55.758.6
12/16/20Business Inventories0.60%0.70%0.70%0.80%
12/16/20NAHB Housing Market Index888690
12/16/20FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)0.25%0.25%0.25%
12/16/20FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)0.00%0.00%0.00%
12/16/20Interest Rate on Excess Reserves0.10%0.10%0.10%
12/17/20Initial Jobless Claims818k885k853k862k
12/17/20Continuing Claims5700k5508k5757k5781k
12/17/20Housing Starts1535k1547k1530k1528k
12/17/20Housing Starts MoM0.30%1.20%4.90%6.30%
12/17/20Building Permits1560k1639k1545k1544k
12/17/20Building Permits MoM1.00%6.20%0.00%-0.10%
12/17/20Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook2011.126.3
12/17/20Bloomberg Economic Expectations38.543
12/17/20Bloomberg Consumer Comfort48.449
12/17/20Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity91411
12/18/20Current Account Balance-$187.0b-$178.5b-$170.5b-$161.4b
12/18/20Leading Index0.50%0.70%

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