Treasury prices are drifting lower on expectedly light volumes as we approach year-end. The slope of the yield curve, as measured by the 2yr/10yr Treasury spread, is up to 57 bps this morning after touching 50 bps on Friday. Equity markets are fairly quiet as well this morning (S&P 500 futures up 2 points) as investors await the tax reform vote. The House is scheduled to vote today at 1:30 p.m. ET. Bloomberg is reporting that Senate Democrat leaders may attempt to delay the vote when the bill comes to the Senate floor by challenging certain provisions that may not meet the requirements for budget reconciliation. If successful, these challenges could force the bill back to the House for consideration excluding those provisions. However, this would only be a temporary measure and is not expected to ultimately obstruct passage of the legislation.
Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
| Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 12/18 | NAHB Housing Market Index | 70 | 74 | 70 | 69 |
| 12/19 | Housing Starts | 1250k | 1297k | 1290k | 1256k |
| 12/19 | Housing Starts MoM | -3.10% | 3.30% | 13.70% | 8.40% |
| 12/19 | Building Permits | 1270k | 1298k | 1297k | 1316k |
| 12/19 | Building Permits MoM | -3.50% | -1.40% | 5.90% | 7.40% |
| 12/19 | Current Account Balance | -$116.2b | -$100.6b | -$123.1b | -$124.4b |
| 12/20 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -2.30% | — |
| 12/20 | Existing Home Sales | 5.53m | — | 5.48m | — |
| 12/20 | Existing Home Sales MoM | 0.90% | — | 2.00% | — |
| 12/21 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | 21 | — | 22.7 | — |
| 12/21 | GDP Annualized QoQ | 3.30% | — | 3.30% | — |
| 12/21 | Personal Consumption | 2.30% | — | 2.30% | — |
| 12/21 | GDP Price Index | 2.10% | — | 2.10% | — |
| 12/21 | Core PCE QoQ | 1.40% | — | 1.40% | — |
| 12/21 | Initial Jobless Claims | 233k | — | 225k | — |
| 12/21 | Continuing Claims | 1898k | — | 1886k | — |
| 12/21 | Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index | 0.5 | — | 0.65 | — |
| 12/21 | FHFA House Price Index MoM | 0.40% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 12/21 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 51.3 | — |
| 12/21 | Bloomberg Economic Expectations | — | — | 53 | — |
| 12/21 | Leading Index | 0.40% | — | 1.20% | — |
| 12/22 | Personal Income | 0.40% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 12/22 | Personal Spending | 0.50% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 12/22 | Real Personal Spending | 0.20% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 12/22 | PCE Deflator MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 12/22 | PCE Deflator YoY | 1.80% | — | 1.60% | — |
| 12/22 | PCE Core MoM | 0.10% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 12/22 | PCE Core YoY | 1.50% | — | 1.40% | — |
| 12/22 | Durable Goods Orders | 2.00% | — | -0.80% | — |
| 12/22 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.50% | — | 0.90% | — |
| 12/22 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | 0.50% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 12/22 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | 0.30% | — | 1.10% | — |
| 12/22 | New Home Sales | 653k | — | 685k | — |
| 12/22 | New Home Sales MoM | -4.70% | — | 6.20% | — |
| 12/22 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 97.2 | — | 96.8 | — |
| 12/22 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | — | 115.9 | — |
| 12/22 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 84.6 | — |
| 12/22 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.80% | — |
| 12/22 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.50% | — |
| 12/22 | Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity | 15 | — | 16 | — |