US Treasuries were unchanged overnight as the market awaits the Federal Reserve decision this afternoon. The market consensus forecasts a dovish hike (25bps increase in policy rate and 20bps in IOER) and a decline in the median 2019 “dot” to two hikes this year. In the statement, investors will search for additional clues to policy stance and balance sheet normalization. Overseas, Italian debt prices rose on news that the European Commission ruled against launching disciplinary action over the country’s budget impasse.

Chris Eckhoff
Associate, Investment Management Group


12/17Empire Manufacturing2010.923.3
12/17NAHB Housing Market Index605660
12/17Total Net TIC Flows$42.0b-$29.1b
12/17Net Long-term TIC Flows$31.3b$30.8b
12/18Housing Starts1226k1256k1228k
12/18Housing Starts MoM-0.20%3.20%1.50%
12/18Building Permits1260k1328k1263k
12/18Building Permits MoM-0.40%5.00%-0.60%
12/19MBA Mortgage Applications-5.80%1.60%
12/19Current Account Balance-$125.0b-$124.8b-$101.5b
12/19Existing Home Sales5.20m5.22m
12/19Existing Home Sales MoM-0.40%1.40%
12/19FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)2.50%2.25%
12/19FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)2.25%2.00%
12/19Interest Rate on Excess Reserves2.40%2.20%
12/20Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook1512.9
12/20Initial Jobless Claims215k206k
12/20Continuing Claims1663k1661k
12/20Bloomberg Consumer Comfort59.4
12/20Bloomberg Economic Expectations56
12/20Leading Index0.00%0.10%
12/21GDP Annualized QoQ3.50%3.50%
12/21Personal Consumption3.60%3.60%
12/21GDP Price Index1.70%1.70%
12/21Core PCE QoQ1.50%1.50%
12/21Durable Goods Orders1.60%-4.30%
12/21Durables Ex Transportation0.30%0.20%
12/21Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.20%0.00%
12/21Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.20%0.30%
12/21Personal Income0.30%0.50%
12/21Personal Spending0.30%0.60%
12/21Real Personal Spending0.30%0.40%
12/21PCE Deflator MoM0.00%0.20%
12/21PCE Deflator YoY1.80%2.00%
12/21PCE Core MoM0.20%0.10%
12/21PCE Core YoY1.90%1.80%
12/21U. of Mich. Sentiment97.597.5
12/21U. of Mich. Current Conditions115.2
12/21U. of Mich. Expectations86.1
12/21U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.70%
12/21U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.40%
12/21Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity1315