US Treasuries were unchanged overnight as the market awaits the Federal Reserve decision this afternoon. The market consensus forecasts a dovish hike (25bps increase in policy rate and 20bps in IOER) and a decline in the median 2019 “dot” to two hikes this year. In the statement, investors will search for additional clues to policy stance and balance sheet normalization. Overseas, Italian debt prices rose on news that the European Commission ruled against launching disciplinary action over the country’s budget impasse.

Chris Eckhoff
Associate, Investment Management Group

 

Date Event Survey Actual Prior
12/17 Empire Manufacturing 20 10.9 23.3
12/17 NAHB Housing Market Index 60 56 60
12/17 Total Net TIC Flows $42.0b -$29.1b
12/17 Net Long-term TIC Flows $31.3b $30.8b
12/18 Housing Starts 1226k 1256k 1228k
12/18 Housing Starts MoM -0.20% 3.20% 1.50%
12/18 Building Permits 1260k 1328k 1263k
12/18 Building Permits MoM -0.40% 5.00% -0.60%
12/19 MBA Mortgage Applications -5.80% 1.60%
12/19 Current Account Balance -$125.0b -$124.8b -$101.5b
12/19 Existing Home Sales 5.20m 5.22m
12/19 Existing Home Sales MoM -0.40% 1.40%
12/19 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 2.50% 2.25%
12/19 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 2.25% 2.00%
12/19 Interest Rate on Excess Reserves 2.40% 2.20%
12/20 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 15 12.9
12/20 Initial Jobless Claims 215k 206k
12/20 Continuing Claims 1663k 1661k
12/20 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 59.4
12/20 Bloomberg Economic Expectations 56
12/20 Leading Index 0.00% 0.10%
12/21 GDP Annualized QoQ 3.50% 3.50%
12/21 Personal Consumption 3.60% 3.60%
12/21 GDP Price Index 1.70% 1.70%
12/21 Core PCE QoQ 1.50% 1.50%
12/21 Durable Goods Orders 1.60% -4.30%
12/21 Durables Ex Transportation 0.30% 0.20%
12/21 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air 0.20% 0.00%
12/21 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air 0.20% 0.30%
12/21 Personal Income 0.30% 0.50%
12/21 Personal Spending 0.30% 0.60%
12/21 Real Personal Spending 0.30% 0.40%
12/21 PCE Deflator MoM 0.00% 0.20%
12/21 PCE Deflator YoY 1.80% 2.00%
12/21 PCE Core MoM 0.20% 0.10%
12/21 PCE Core YoY 1.90% 1.80%
12/21 U. of Mich. Sentiment 97.5 97.5
12/21 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 115.2
12/21 U. of Mich. Expectations 86.1
12/21 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 2.70%
12/21 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 2.40%
12/21 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity 13 15