US Treasuries were unchanged overnight as the market awaits the Federal Reserve decision this afternoon. The market consensus forecasts a dovish hike (25bps increase in policy rate and 20bps in IOER) and a decline in the median 2019 “dot” to two hikes this year. In the statement, investors will search for additional clues to policy stance and balance sheet normalization. Overseas, Italian debt prices rose on news that the European Commission ruled against launching disciplinary action over the country’s budget impasse.
Chris Eckhoff
Associate, Investment Management Group
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior |
| 12/17 | Empire Manufacturing | 20 | 10.9 | 23.3 |
| 12/17 | NAHB Housing Market Index | 60 | 56 | 60 |
| 12/17 | Total Net TIC Flows | — | $42.0b | -$29.1b |
| 12/17 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | — | $31.3b | $30.8b |
| 12/18 | Housing Starts | 1226k | 1256k | 1228k |
| 12/18 | Housing Starts MoM | -0.20% | 3.20% | 1.50% |
| 12/18 | Building Permits | 1260k | 1328k | 1263k |
| 12/18 | Building Permits MoM | -0.40% | 5.00% | -0.60% |
| 12/19 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -5.80% | 1.60% |
| 12/19 | Current Account Balance | -$125.0b | -$124.8b | -$101.5b |
| 12/19 | Existing Home Sales | 5.20m | — | 5.22m |
| 12/19 | Existing Home Sales MoM | -0.40% | — | 1.40% |
| 12/19 | FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) | 2.50% | — | 2.25% |
| 12/19 | FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) | 2.25% | — | 2.00% |
| 12/19 | Interest Rate on Excess Reserves | 2.40% | — | 2.20% |
| 12/20 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | 15 | — | 12.9 |
| 12/20 | Initial Jobless Claims | 215k | — | 206k |
| 12/20 | Continuing Claims | 1663k | — | 1661k |
| 12/20 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 59.4 |
| 12/20 | Bloomberg Economic Expectations | — | — | 56 |
| 12/20 | Leading Index | 0.00% | — | 0.10% |
| 12/21 | GDP Annualized QoQ | 3.50% | — | 3.50% |
| 12/21 | Personal Consumption | 3.60% | — | 3.60% |
| 12/21 | GDP Price Index | 1.70% | — | 1.70% |
| 12/21 | Core PCE QoQ | 1.50% | — | 1.50% |
| 12/21 | Durable Goods Orders | 1.60% | — | -4.30% |
| 12/21 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.30% | — | 0.20% |
| 12/21 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | 0.20% | — | 0.00% |
| 12/21 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | 0.20% | — | 0.30% |
| 12/21 | Personal Income | 0.30% | — | 0.50% |
| 12/21 | Personal Spending | 0.30% | — | 0.60% |
| 12/21 | Real Personal Spending | 0.30% | — | 0.40% |
| 12/21 | PCE Deflator MoM | 0.00% | — | 0.20% |
| 12/21 | PCE Deflator YoY | 1.80% | — | 2.00% |
| 12/21 | PCE Core MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.10% |
| 12/21 | PCE Core YoY | 1.90% | — | 1.80% |
| 12/21 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 97.5 | — | 97.5 |
| 12/21 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | — | 115.2 |
| 12/21 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 86.1 |
| 12/21 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.70% |
| 12/21 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.40% |
| 12/21 | Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity | 13 | — | 15 |