December 2, 2019 Headlines

Better PMI data in Asia and Europe is contributing to higher Treasury yields this morning. S&P 500 futures are little changed ahead of the open, with equity investors a little more concerned with trade headlines over the weekend. Reuters reported Friday that U.S. officials are considering new regulations that would further restrict American suppliers to Huawei. On the other side, Chinese media reported that China will not accept a phase-one deal unless all existing tariffs are lifted (as opposed to just canceling the 12/15 tariffs). This week’s economic calendar is headlined by the November jobs report on Friday, and Fed Vice Chair Randal Quarles will speak to Congress this week on bank supervision and regulation.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

Date	Event	Survey	Actual	Prior	Revised
12/2/2019	Markit US Manufacturing PMI	52.2	52.6	52.2	—
12/2/2019	ISM Manufacturing	49.2	48.1	48.3	—
12/2/2019	ISM Employment	48.2	46.6	47.7	—
12/2/2019	ISM Prices Paid	47	46.7	45.5	—
12/2/2019	ISM New Orders	49	47.2	49.1	—
12/2/2019	Construction Spending MoM	0.40%	-0.80%	0.50%	-0.30%
12/3/2019	Wards Total Vehicle Sales	16.90m	—	16.55m	—
12/4/2019	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	—	1.50%	—
12/4/2019	ADP Employment Change	140k	—	125k	—
12/4/2019	Markit US Services PMI	51.6	—	51.6	—
12/4/2019	Markit US Composite PMI	—	—	51.9	—
12/4/2019	ISM Non-Manufacturing Index	54.5	—	54.7	—
12/5/2019	Challenger Job Cuts YoY	—	—	-33.50%	—
12/5/2019	Initial Jobless Claims	215k	—	213k	—
12/5/2019	Continuing Claims	1661k	—	1640k	—
12/5/2019	Trade Balance	-$48.6b	—	-$52.5b	—
12/5/2019	Bloomberg Consumer Comfort	—	—	60.5	—
12/5/2019	Factory Orders	0.30%	—	-0.60%	—
12/5/2019	Factory Orders Ex Trans	—	—	-0.10%	—
12/5/2019	Durable Goods Orders	0.60%	—	0.60%	—
12/5/2019	Durables Ex Transportation	0.60%	—	0.60%	—
12/5/2019	Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air	—	—	1.20%	—
12/5/2019	Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air	—	—	0.80%	—
12/6/2019	Change in Nonfarm Payrolls	188k	—	128k	—
12/6/2019	Two-Month Payroll Net Revision	—	—	95k	—
12/6/2019	Change in Private Payrolls	178k	—	131k	—
12/6/2019	Change in Manufact. Payrolls	40k	—	-36k	—
12/6/2019	Unemployment Rate	3.60%	—	3.60%	—
12/6/2019	Average Hourly Earnings MoM	0.30%	—	0.20%	—
12/6/2019	Average Hourly Earnings YoY	3.00%	—	3.00%	—
12/6/2019	Average Weekly Hours All Employees	34.4	—	34.4	—
12/6/2019	Labor Force Participation Rate	—	—	63.30%	—
12/6/2019	Underemployment Rate	—	—	7.00%	—
12/6/2019	Wholesale Inventories MoM	0.20%	—	0.20%	—
12/6/2019	Wholesale Trade Sales MoM	—	—	0.00%	—
12/6/2019	U. of Mich. Sentiment	97	—	96.8	—
12/6/2019	U. of Mich. Current Conditions	112.8	—	111.6	—
12/6/2019	U. of Mich. Expectations	87.5	—	87.3	—
12/6/2019	U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation	—	—	2.50%	—
12/6/2019	U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation	—	—	2.50%	—
12/6/2019	Consumer Credit	$16.000b	—	$9.513b	—

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