December 2, 2021 Headlines

Risk markets are looking to rebound today from yesterday’s Omicron-induced selloff in stocks, which also included a 10-basis point swing lower intraday in 5-year and 10-year Treasury yields. Treasury yields are 1-5 basis points higher this morning, with the front end moving the most (bear flattener). The 2-year/10-year yield spread is 3 basis points lower on the day (0.82%) and is now at the flattest level since the first week of 2021. Much of the recent interest rate volatility is attributable to the hawkish shift in the Fed’s tone toward inflation risks and, to a lesser extent, the recent discovery of the Omicron variant. Regarding the former, Cleveland Fed President exited the dovish camp at the Fed, saying overnight that she is open to a faster tapering pace to give themselves greater flexibility to hike rates in 2022 if needed in the event that inflation doesn’t ease significantly from current levels.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurv(M)ActualPriorRevised
11/29/21Pending Home Sales MoM1.00%7.50%-2.30%-2.40%
11/29/21Pending Home Sales NSA YoY-4.70%-7.20%-7.30%
11/29/21Dallas Fed Manf. Activity1511.814.6
11/30/21FHFA House Price Index MoM1.20%0.90%1.00%
11/30/21House Price Purchase Index QoQ4.20%4.90%5.10%
11/30/21S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA1.20%0.96%1.17%1.16%
11/30/21S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA19.30%19.05%19.66%19.65%
11/30/21S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA19.51%19.84%19.79%
11/30/21MNI Chicago PMI6761.868.4
11/30/21Conf. Board Consumer Confidence110.9109.5113.8111.6
11/30/21Conf. Board Present Situation142.5147.4145.5
11/30/21Conf. Board Expectations87.691.389
12/01/21MBA Mortgage Applications-7.20%1.80%
12/01/21ADP Employment Change525k534k571k570k
12/01/21Markit US Manufacturing PMI59.158.359.1
12/01/21Construction Spending MoM0.40%0.20%-0.50%-0.10%
12/01/21ISM Manufacturing61.261.160.8
12/01/21ISM Prices Paid85.582.485.7
12/01/21ISM New Orders61.559.8
12/01/21ISM Employment53.352
12/01/21U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
12/01/21Wards Total Vehicle Sales13.45m12.86m12.99m
12/02/21Challenger Job Cuts YoY-77.00%-71.70%
12/02/21Initial Jobless Claims240k222k199k194k
12/02/21Continuing Claims2003k1956k2049k2063k
12/02/21Langer Consumer Comfort52.2
12/03/21Two-Month Payroll Net Revision235k
12/03/21Change in Nonfarm Payrolls546k531k
12/03/21Change in Private Payrolls525k604k
12/03/21Change in Manufact. Payrolls42k60k
12/03/21Unemployment Rate4.50%4.60%
12/03/21Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.40%0.40%
12/03/21Average Hourly Earnings YoY5.00%4.90%
12/03/21Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.734.7
12/03/21Labor Force Participation Rate61.70%61.60%
12/03/21Underemployment Rate8.30%
12/03/21Markit US Services PMI5757
12/03/21Markit US Composite PMI56.5
12/03/21ISM Services Index6566.7
12/03/21Factory Orders0.50%0.20%
12/03/21Factory Orders Ex Trans0.70%
12/03/21Durable Goods Orders-0.50%-0.50%
12/03/21Durables Ex Transportation0.50%
12/03/21Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.60%
12/03/21Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.30%

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