Treasury yields are drifting higher again this morning on light volumes, with the 10-year yield approaching 2.50% following yesterday’s sharp sell-off (+15 bps on the week). Additionally, the yield curve is 10 bps steeper on the week (2yr/10yr spread). U.S. equities are little changed this morning following news that the Senate was able to pass the tax bill shortly after midnight.  The bill must now go back to the House for a procedural matter (minor changes by the Senate), and President Trump is expected to sign it into law before the week is over.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

DateEventSurv(M)ActualPriorRevised
12/18NAHB Housing Market Index70747069
12/19Housing Starts1250k1297k1290k1256k
12/19Housing Starts MoM-3.10%3.30%13.70%8.40%
12/19Building Permits1270k1298k1297k1316k
12/19Building Permits MoM-3.50%-1.40%5.90%7.40%
12/19Current Account Balance-$116.2b-$100.6b-$123.1b-$124.4b
12/20MBA Mortgage Applications-4.90%-2.30%
12/20Existing Home Sales5.53m5.81m5.48m5.50m
12/20Existing Home Sales MoM0.90%5.60%2.00%2.40%
12/21Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook2122.7
12/21GDP Annualized QoQ3.30%3.30%
12/21Personal Consumption2.30%2.30%
12/21GDP Price Index2.10%2.10%
12/21Core PCE QoQ1.40%1.40%
12/21Initial Jobless Claims233k225k
12/21Continuing Claims1898k1886k
12/21Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index0.50.65
12/21FHFA House Price Index MoM0.40%0.30%
12/21Bloomberg Consumer Comfort51.3
12/21Bloomberg Economic Expectations53
12/21Leading Index0.40%1.20%
12/22Personal Income0.40%0.40%
12/22Personal Spending0.50%0.30%
12/22Real Personal Spending0.20%0.10%
12/22PCE Deflator MoM0.30%0.10%
12/22PCE Deflator YoY1.80%1.60%
12/22PCE Core MoM0.10%0.20%
12/22PCE Core YoY1.50%1.40%
12/22Durable Goods Orders2.00%-0.80%
12/22Durables Ex Transportation0.50%0.90%
12/22Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.50%0.30%
12/22Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.30%1.10%
12/22New Home Sales655k685k
12/22New Home Sales MoM-4.40%6.20%
12/22U. of Mich. Sentiment97.296.8
12/22U. of Mich. Current Conditions115.9
12/22U. of Mich. Expectations84.6
12/22U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.80%
12/22U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.50%
12/22Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity1516