December 20, 2019 Headlines

Treasury prices are modestly lower this morning following another quiet overnight session and ahead of next week’s issuance. The Department of Treasury will issue $113 billion of new 2-year, 5-year, and 7-year supply, and those auctions could be relatively sloppy given the Christmas holiday.  S&P 500 futures are up 5 points before the open. The third estimate of Q3 GDP growth held steady at 2.1% annualized, but personal consumption was revised higher 30 bps to 3.2%. November personal income, spending, and PCE data will be released later this morning. Core PCE is expected to drop 10 bps to 1.5% year-over-year.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

12/16/2019Empire Manufacturing43.52.9
12/16/2019Markit US Manufacturing PMI52.652.552.6
12/16/2019Markit US Services PMI5252.251.6
12/16/2019Markit US Composite PMI52.252
12/16/2019NAHB Housing Market Index70767071
12/16/2019Net Long-term TIC Flows$32.5b$49.5b
12/16/2019Total Net TIC Flows-$48.3b-$37.6b-$38.1b
12/17/2019Housing Starts1345k1365k1314k1323k
12/17/2019Building Permits1410k1482k1461k
12/17/2019Housing Starts MoM2.40%3.20%3.80%4.50%
12/17/2019Building Permits MoM-3.50%1.40%5.00%
12/17/2019Industrial Production MoM0.90%1.10%-0.80%-0.90%
12/17/2019Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.80%1.10%-0.60%-0.70%
12/17/2019Capacity Utilization77.40%77.30%76.70%76.60%
12/17/2019JOLTS Job Openings7009726770247032
12/18/2019MBA Mortgage Applications-5.00%3.80%
12/19/2019Current Account Balance-$122.0b-$124.1b-$128.2b-$125.2b
12/19/2019Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook80.310.4
12/19/2019Initial Jobless Claims225k234k252k
12/19/2019Continuing Claims1676k1722k1667k1671k
12/19/2019Bloomberg Consumer Comfort61.162.1
12/19/2019Bloomberg Economic Expectations56.551.5
12/19/2019Leading Index0.10%0.00%-0.10%-0.20%
12/19/2019Existing Home Sales5.44m5.35m5.46m5.44m
12/19/2019Existing Home Sales MoM-0.40%-1.70%1.90%1.50%
12/20/2019GDP Annualized QoQ2.10%2.10%2.10%
12/20/2019Personal Consumption2.90%3.20%2.90%
12/20/2019GDP Price Index1.80%1.80%1.80%
12/20/2019Core PCE QoQ2.10%2.10%2.10%
12/20/2019Personal Income0.30%0.00%
12/20/2019Personal Spending0.40%0.30%
12/20/2019Real Personal Spending0.20%0.10%
12/20/2019PCE Deflator MoM0.20%0.20%
12/20/2019PCE Deflator YoY1.40%1.30%
12/20/2019PCE Core Deflator MoM0.10%0.10%
12/20/2019PCE Core Deflator YoY1.50%1.60%
12/20/2019U. of Mich. Sentiment99.299.2
12/20/2019U. of Mich. Current Conditions115.2
12/20/2019U. of Mich. Expectations88.9
12/20/2019U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.40%
12/20/2019U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.30%
12/20/2019Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity-3-3




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