December 20, 2019 Headlines

Treasury prices are modestly lower this morning following another quiet overnight session and ahead of next week’s issuance. The Department of Treasury will issue $113 billion of new 2-year, 5-year, and 7-year supply, and those auctions could be relatively sloppy given the Christmas holiday.  S&P 500 futures are up 5 points before the open. The third estimate of Q3 GDP growth held steady at 2.1% annualized, but personal consumption was revised higher 30 bps to 3.2%. November personal income, spending, and PCE data will be released later this morning. Core PCE is expected to drop 10 bps to 1.5% year-over-year.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
12/16/2019 Empire Manufacturing 4 3.5 2.9
12/16/2019 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 52.6 52.5 52.6
12/16/2019 Markit US Services PMI 52 52.2 51.6
12/16/2019 Markit US Composite PMI 52.2 52
12/16/2019 NAHB Housing Market Index 70 76 70 71
12/16/2019 Net Long-term TIC Flows $32.5b $49.5b
12/16/2019 Total Net TIC Flows -$48.3b -$37.6b -$38.1b
12/17/2019 Housing Starts 1345k 1365k 1314k 1323k
12/17/2019 Building Permits 1410k 1482k 1461k
12/17/2019 Housing Starts MoM 2.40% 3.20% 3.80% 4.50%
12/17/2019 Building Permits MoM -3.50% 1.40% 5.00%
12/17/2019 Industrial Production MoM 0.90% 1.10% -0.80% -0.90%
12/17/2019 Manufacturing (SIC) Production 0.80% 1.10% -0.60% -0.70%
12/17/2019 Capacity Utilization 77.40% 77.30% 76.70% 76.60%
12/17/2019 JOLTS Job Openings 7009 7267 7024 7032
12/18/2019 MBA Mortgage Applications -5.00% 3.80%
12/19/2019 Current Account Balance -$122.0b -$124.1b -$128.2b -$125.2b
12/19/2019 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 8 0.3 10.4
12/19/2019 Initial Jobless Claims 225k 234k 252k
12/19/2019 Continuing Claims 1676k 1722k 1667k 1671k
12/19/2019 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 61.1 62.1
12/19/2019 Bloomberg Economic Expectations 56.5 51.5
12/19/2019 Leading Index 0.10% 0.00% -0.10% -0.20%
12/19/2019 Existing Home Sales 5.44m 5.35m 5.46m 5.44m
12/19/2019 Existing Home Sales MoM -0.40% -1.70% 1.90% 1.50%
12/20/2019 GDP Annualized QoQ 2.10% 2.10% 2.10%
12/20/2019 Personal Consumption 2.90% 3.20% 2.90%
12/20/2019 GDP Price Index 1.80% 1.80% 1.80%
12/20/2019 Core PCE QoQ 2.10% 2.10% 2.10%
12/20/2019 Personal Income 0.30% 0.00%
12/20/2019 Personal Spending 0.40% 0.30%
12/20/2019 Real Personal Spending 0.20% 0.10%
12/20/2019 PCE Deflator MoM 0.20% 0.20%
12/20/2019 PCE Deflator YoY 1.40% 1.30%
12/20/2019 PCE Core Deflator MoM 0.10% 0.10%
12/20/2019 PCE Core Deflator YoY 1.50% 1.60%
12/20/2019 U. of Mich. Sentiment 99.2 99.2
12/20/2019 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 115.2
12/20/2019 U. of Mich. Expectations 88.9
12/20/2019 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 2.40%
12/20/2019 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 2.30%
12/20/2019 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity -3 -3




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