December 3, 2019 Headlines

A risk-off trade emerged in global markets overnight following President Trump’s comments at the NATO conference that he’s in no hurry to sign a trade deal with China. S&P 500 futures are down 0.7% ahead of the open, and term Treasury yields are down 4-5 bps. The president suggested that China was ready to sign a phase-one deal now, but he would be willing to wait a year until after the 2020 elections if it means securing the right terms for the U.S. On the other side, Chinese state media is reporting that government officials are considering the creation of a list of “unreliable entities” that could lead to sanctions against American companies.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

Date	Event	Survey	Actual	Prior	Revised
12/3/2019	Wards Total Vehicle Sales	16.90m	—	16.55m	—
12/4/2019	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	—	1.50%	—
12/4/2019	ADP Employment Change	140k	—	125k	—
12/4/2019	Markit US Services PMI	51.6	—	51.6	—
12/4/2019	Markit US Composite PMI	—	—	51.9	—
12/4/2019	ISM Non-Manufacturing Index	54.5	—	54.7	—
12/5/2019	Challenger Job Cuts YoY	—	—	-33.50%	—
12/5/2019	Initial Jobless Claims	215k	—	213k	—
12/5/2019	Continuing Claims	1660k	—	1640k	—
12/5/2019	Trade Balance	-$48.6b	—	-$52.5b	—
12/5/2019	Bloomberg Consumer Comfort	—	—	60.5	—
12/5/2019	Factory Orders	0.30%	—	-0.60%	—
12/5/2019	Factory Orders Ex Trans	—	—	-0.10%	—
12/5/2019	Durable Goods Orders	0.60%	—	0.60%	—
12/5/2019	Durables Ex Transportation	0.60%	—	0.60%	—
12/5/2019	Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air	—	—	1.20%	—
12/5/2019	Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air	—	—	0.80%	—
12/6/2019	Change in Nonfarm Payrolls	190k	—	128k	—
12/6/2019	Two-Month Payroll Net Revision	—	—	95k	—
12/6/2019	Change in Private Payrolls	179k	—	131k	—
12/6/2019	Change in Manufact. Payrolls	40k	—	-36k	—
12/6/2019	Unemployment Rate	3.60%	—	3.60%	—
12/6/2019	Average Hourly Earnings MoM	0.30%	—	0.20%	—
12/6/2019	Average Hourly Earnings YoY	3.00%	—	3.00%	—
12/6/2019	Average Weekly Hours All Employees	34.4	—	34.4	—
12/6/2019	Labor Force Participation Rate	—	—	63.30%	—
12/6/2019	Underemployment Rate	—	—	7.00%	—
12/6/2019	Wholesale Inventories MoM	0.20%	—	0.20%	—
12/6/2019	Wholesale Trade Sales MoM	—	—	0.00%	—
12/6/2019	U. of Mich. Sentiment	97	—	96.8	—
12/6/2019	U. of Mich. Current Conditions	112.8	—	111.6	—
12/6/2019	U. of Mich. Expectations	87.5	—	87.3	—
12/6/2019	U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation	—	—	2.50%	—
12/6/2019	U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation	—	—	2.50%	—
12/6/2019	Consumer Credit	$16.000b	—	$9.513b	—

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