December 3, 2019 Headlines

A risk-off trade emerged in global markets overnight following President Trump’s comments at the NATO conference that he’s in no hurry to sign a trade deal with China. S&P 500 futures are down 0.7% ahead of the open, and term Treasury yields are down 4-5 bps. The president suggested that China was ready to sign a phase-one deal now, but he would be willing to wait a year until after the 2020 elections if it means securing the right terms for the U.S.  On the other side, Chinese state media is reporting that government officials are considering the creation of a list of “unreliable entities” that could lead to sanctions against American companies.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

12/3/2019Wards Total Vehicle Sales16.90m16.55m
12/4/2019MBA Mortgage Applications1.50%
12/4/2019ADP Employment Change140k125k
12/4/2019Markit US Services PMI51.651.6
12/4/2019Markit US Composite PMI51.9
12/4/2019ISM Non-Manufacturing Index54.554.7
12/5/2019Challenger Job Cuts YoY-33.50%
12/5/2019Initial Jobless Claims215k213k
12/5/2019Continuing Claims1660k1640k
12/5/2019Trade Balance-$48.6b-$52.5b
12/5/2019Bloomberg Consumer Comfort60.5
12/5/2019Factory Orders0.30%-0.60%
12/5/2019Factory Orders Ex Trans-0.10%
12/5/2019Durable Goods Orders0.60%0.60%
12/5/2019Durables Ex Transportation0.60%0.60%
12/5/2019Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air1.20%
12/5/2019Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.80%
12/6/2019Change in Nonfarm Payrolls190k128k
12/6/2019Two-Month Payroll Net Revision95k
12/6/2019Change in Private Payrolls179k131k
12/6/2019Change in Manufact. Payrolls40k-36k
12/6/2019Unemployment Rate3.60%3.60%
12/6/2019Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%0.20%
12/6/2019Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.00%3.00%
12/6/2019Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.434.4
12/6/2019Labor Force Participation Rate63.30%
12/6/2019Underemployment Rate7.00%
12/6/2019Wholesale Inventories MoM0.20%0.20%
12/6/2019Wholesale Trade Sales MoM0.00%
12/6/2019U. of Mich. Sentiment9796.8
12/6/2019U. of Mich. Current Conditions112.8111.6
12/6/2019U. of Mich. Expectations87.587.3
12/6/2019U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.50%
12/6/2019U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.50%
12/6/2019Consumer Credit$16.000b$9.513b






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