December 3, 2020 Headlines

Treasury yields are unchanged this morning with the 10-year sitting at 93 bps while equity futures are slightly in negative territory. Initial jobless claims fell last week from a revised 787k to 712k, the steepest decline in nearly two months. Continuing claims also fell, declining to 5.52 million from 6.07 million the week prior. Both numbers came below forecast and offer a glimmer of an improving labor market. The caveat of course is that Thanksgiving was last week, and holidays can make seasonal adjustments more difficult.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

Date	Event	Surv(M)	Actual	Prior	Revised
11/30/20	MNI Chicago PMI	59	58.2	61.1	—
11/30/20	Pending Home Sales MoM	1.00%	-1.10%	-2.20%	-2.00%
11/30/20	Pending Home Sales NSA YoY	—	19.50%	21.90%	22.20%
11/30/20	Dallas Fed Manf. Activity	14.3	12	19.8	—
12/01/20	Markit US Manufacturing PMI	56.7	56.7	56.7	—
12/01/20	ISM Manufacturing	58	57.5	59.3	—
12/01/20	ISM New Orders	—	65.1	67.9	—
12/01/20	ISM Prices Paid	65	65.4	65.5	—
12/01/20	ISM Employment	—	48.4	53.2	—
12/01/20	Construction Spending MoM	0.80%	1.30%	0.30%	-0.50%
12/01/20	Wards Total Vehicle Sales	16.10m	15.55m	16.21m	—
12/02/20	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	-0.60%	3.90%	—
12/02/20	ADP Employment Change	440k	307k	365k	404k
12/02/20	U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
12/03/20	Challenger Job Cuts YoY	—	45.40%	60.40%	—
12/03/20	Initial Jobless Claims	775k	712k	778k	787k
12/03/20	Continuing Claims	5800k	5520k	6071k	6089k
12/03/20	Bloomberg Consumer Comfort	—	—	49.6	—
12/03/20	Markit US Services PMI	57.5	—	57.7	—
12/03/20	Markit US Composite PMI	—	—	57.9	—
12/03/20	ISM Services Index	55.8	—	56.6	—
12/04/20	Change in Nonfarm Payrolls	475k	—	638k	—
12/04/20	Two-Month Payroll Net Revision	—	—	—	—
12/04/20	Change in Private Payrolls	545k	—	906k	—
12/04/20	Change in Manufact. Payrolls	45k	—	38k	—
12/04/20	Unemployment Rate	6.80%	—	6.90%	—
12/04/20	Average Hourly Earnings MoM	0.10%	—	0.10%	—
12/04/20	Average Hourly Earnings YoY	4.20%	—	4.50%	—
12/04/20	Average Weekly Hours All Employees	34.8	—	34.8	—
12/04/20	Labor Force Participation Rate	61.70%	—	61.70%	—
12/04/20	Underemployment Rate	—	—	12.10%	—
12/04/20	Trade Balance	-$64.8b	—	-$63.9b	—
12/04/20	Factory Orders	0.80%	—	1.10%	—
12/04/20	Factory Orders Ex Trans	—	—	0.50%	—
12/04/20	Durable Goods Orders	1.30%	—	1.30%	—
12/04/20	Durables Ex Transportation	1.30%	—	1.30%	—
12/04/20	Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air	0.70%	—	0.70%	—
12/04/20	Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air	—	—	2.30%	—

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