December 3, 2020 Headlines

Treasury yields are unchanged this morning with the 10-year sitting at 93 bps while equity futures are slightly in negative territory. Initial jobless claims fell last week from a revised 787k to 712k, the steepest decline in nearly two months. Continuing claims also fell, declining to 5.52 million from 6.07 million the week prior. Both numbers came below forecast and offer a glimmer of an improving labor market. The caveat of course is that Thanksgiving was last week, and holidays can make seasonal adjustments more difficult.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

DateEventSurv(M)ActualPriorRevised
11/30/20MNI Chicago PMI5958.261.1
11/30/20Pending Home Sales MoM1.00%-1.10%-2.20%-2.00%
11/30/20Pending Home Sales NSA YoY19.50%21.90%22.20%
11/30/20Dallas Fed Manf. Activity14.31219.8
12/01/20Markit US Manufacturing PMI56.756.756.7
12/01/20ISM Manufacturing5857.559.3
12/01/20ISM New Orders65.167.9
12/01/20ISM Prices Paid6565.465.5
12/01/20ISM Employment48.453.2
12/01/20Construction Spending MoM0.80%1.30%0.30%-0.50%
12/01/20Wards Total Vehicle Sales16.10m15.55m16.21m
12/02/20MBA Mortgage Applications-0.60%3.90%
12/02/20ADP Employment Change440k307k365k404k
12/02/20U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
12/03/20Challenger Job Cuts YoY45.40%60.40%
12/03/20Initial Jobless Claims775k712k778k787k
12/03/20Continuing Claims5800k5520k6071k6089k
12/03/20Bloomberg Consumer Comfort49.6
12/03/20Markit US Services PMI57.557.7
12/03/20Markit US Composite PMI57.9
12/03/20ISM Services Index55.856.6
12/04/20Change in Nonfarm Payrolls475k638k
12/04/20Two-Month Payroll Net Revision
12/04/20Change in Private Payrolls545k906k
12/04/20Change in Manufact. Payrolls45k38k
12/04/20Unemployment Rate6.80%6.90%
12/04/20Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.10%0.10%
12/04/20Average Hourly Earnings YoY4.20%4.50%
12/04/20Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.834.8
12/04/20Labor Force Participation Rate61.70%61.70%
12/04/20Underemployment Rate12.10%
12/04/20Trade Balance-$64.8b-$63.9b
12/04/20Factory Orders0.80%1.10%
12/04/20Factory Orders Ex Trans0.50%
12/04/20Durable Goods Orders1.30%1.30%
12/04/20Durables Ex Transportation1.30%1.30%
12/04/20Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.70%0.70%
12/04/20Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air2.30%

Subscribe Today!

Subscribe to our email list and get the latest articles and announcements from ALM First.

ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content.Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First.Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.