Nonfarm payrolls added 210,000 jobs last month, less than half of the 550,000 expected gain, and the prior two monthly reports were revised higher by 82,000 jobs (total). Growth in average hourly earnings was also less than expected, rising 0.3% m/m versus Bloomberg’s survey of 0.4%. The household survey painted a much rosier picture of the labor market in November. The headline unemployment rate fell 40 basis points (bps) to 4.2% versus an expected 4.5% rate, bolstered by a 1.13 million increase in household employment. The report also showed a 594,000 increase in the official labor force, which pushed the labor participation rate up 20 bps to 61.8%. Overall, it was a solid report, but the strong household survey results were offset by misses on nonfarm payrolls and wage growth. Treasury yields are unchanged to slightly higher/steeper following the report. The wage inflation data theoretically takes a little pressure off the Fed, but next week’s CPI report will be much more important on that front ahead of the December 15 FOMC meeting.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
12/3/2021 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | 82k | 235k | — |
12/3/2021 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 550k | 210k | 531k | 546k |
12/3/2021 | Change in Private Payrolls | 536k | 235k | 604k | 628k |
12/3/2021 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | 45k | 31k | 60k | 48k |
12/3/2021 | Unemployment Rate | 4.50% | 4.20% | 4.60% | — |
12/3/2021 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.40% | 0.30% | 0.40% | 0.40% |
12/3/2021 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 5.00% | 4.80% | 4.90% | 4.80% |
12/3/2021 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.7 | 34.8 | 34.7 | — |
12/3/2021 | Labor Force Participation Rate | 61.70% | 61.80% | 61.60% | — |
12/3/2021 | Underemployment Rate | — | 7.80% | 8.30% | — |
12/3/2021 | Markit US Services PMI | 57 | — | 57 | — |
12/3/2021 | Markit US Composite PMI | — | — | 56.5 | — |
12/3/2021 | ISM Services Index | 65 | — | 66.7 | — |
12/3/2021 | Factory Orders | 0.50% | — | 0.20% | — |
12/3/2021 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | 0.60% | — | 0.70% | — |
12/3/2021 | Durable Goods Orders | -0.50% | — | -0.50% | — |
12/3/2021 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.50% | — | 0.50% | — |
12/3/2021 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 0.60% | — |
12/3/2021 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 0.30% | — |
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