December 3, 2021 Headlines

Nonfarm payrolls added 210,000 jobs last month, less than half of the 550,000 expected gain, and the prior two monthly reports were revised higher by 82,000 jobs (total). Growth in average hourly earnings was also less than expected, rising 0.3% m/m versus Bloomberg’s survey of 0.4%. The household survey painted a much rosier picture of the labor market in November. The headline unemployment rate fell 40 basis points (bps) to 4.2% versus an expected 4.5% rate, bolstered by a 1.13 million increase in household employment. The report also showed a 594,000 increase in the official labor force, which pushed the labor participation rate up 20 bps to 61.8%. Overall, it was a solid report, but the strong household survey results were offset by misses on nonfarm payrolls and wage growth. Treasury yields are unchanged to slightly higher/steeper following the report. The wage inflation data theoretically takes a little pressure off the Fed, but next week’s CPI report will be much more important on that front ahead of the December 15 FOMC meeting. 

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
12/3/2021Two-Month Payroll Net Revision82k235k
12/3/2021Change in Nonfarm Payrolls550k210k531k546k
12/3/2021Change in Private Payrolls536k235k604k628k
12/3/2021Change in Manufact. Payrolls45k31k60k48k
12/3/2021Unemployment Rate4.50%4.20%4.60%
12/3/2021Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.40%0.30%0.40%0.40%
12/3/2021Average Hourly Earnings YoY5.00%4.80%4.90%4.80%
12/3/2021Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.734.834.7
12/3/2021Labor Force Participation Rate61.70%61.80%61.60%
12/3/2021Underemployment Rate7.80%8.30%
12/3/2021Markit US Services PMI5757
12/3/2021Markit US Composite PMI56.5
12/3/2021ISM Services Index6566.7
12/3/2021Factory Orders0.50%0.20%
12/3/2021Factory Orders Ex Trans0.60%0.70%
12/3/2021Durable Goods Orders-0.50%-0.50%
12/3/2021Durables Ex Transportation0.50%0.50%
12/3/2021Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.60%
12/3/2021Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.30%

 

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