The agreement between China and the US over the weekend called for a cease-fire in the current trade war and has sparked a risk-on move in the markets. As a result, the Treasury curve is roughly 4 to 5 basis points higher this morning. While the truce is undoubtedly a positive in the short term, given the tariffs that have been levied to this point, it is more likely just a bandage rather than a cure. Equities are up this morning with autos leading the way after news that China agreed to reduce tariffs on US made cars.

Please note that SIFMA is recommending a bond market close on Wednesday in remembrance of former US President George H.W. Bush.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group


12/03Markit US Manufacturing PMI55.455.4
12/03Construction Spending MoM0.40%0.00%
12/03ISM Manufacturing57.557.7
12/03ISM Employment56.8
12/03ISM Prices Paid7071.6
12/03ISM New Orders57.4
12/03Wards Total Vehicle Sales17.20m17.50m
12/05MBA Mortgage Applications5.50%
12/05ADP Employment Change195k227k
12/05Nonfarm Productivity2.30%2.20%
12/05Unit Labor Costs1.00%1.20%
12/05Markit US Services PMI54.454.4
12/05Markit US Composite PMI54.4
12/05ISM Non-Manufacturing Index5960.3
12/05U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
12/06Challenger Job Cuts YoY153.60%
12/06Trade Balance-$55.0b-$54.0b
12/06Initial Jobless Claims225k234k
12/06Continuing Claims1695k1710k
12/06Bloomberg Consumer Comfort60.6
12/06Factory Orders-2.00%0.70%
12/06Factory Orders Ex Trans0.40%
12/06Durable Goods Orders-2.40%-4.40%
12/06Durables Ex Transportation0.10%0.10%
12/06Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.00%
12/06Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.30%
12/06Household Change in Net Worth$2191b
12/07Change in Nonfarm Payrolls198k250k
12/07Two-Month Payroll Net Revision0k
12/07Change in Private Payrolls200k246k
12/07Change in Manufact. Payrolls18k32k
12/07Unemployment Rate3.70%3.70%
12/07Underemployment Rate7.40%
12/07Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%0.20%
12/07Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.10%3.10%
12/07Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.534.5
12/07Labor Force Participation Rate62.90%62.90%
12/07Wholesale Inventories MoM0.70%0.70%
12/07Wholesale Trade Sales MoM0.20%
12/07U. of Mich. Sentiment9797.5
12/07U. of Mich. Current Conditions112.3
12/07U. of Mich. Expectations88.1
12/07U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.80%
12/07U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.60%
12/07Consumer Credit$15.000b$10.923b