The agreement between China and the US over the weekend called for a cease-fire in the current trade war and has sparked a risk-on move in the markets. As a result, the Treasury curve is roughly 4 to 5 basis points higher this morning. While the truce is undoubtedly a positive in the short term, given the tariffs that have been levied to this point, it is more likely just a bandage rather than a cure. Equities are up this morning with autos leading the way after news that China agreed to reduce tariffs on US made cars.
Please note that SIFMA is recommending a bond market close on Wednesday in remembrance of former US President George H.W. Bush.
Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group
| Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 12/03 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | 55.4 | — | 55.4 | — |
| 12/03 | Construction Spending MoM | 0.40% | — | 0.00% | — |
| 12/03 | ISM Manufacturing | 57.5 | — | 57.7 | — |
| 12/03 | ISM Employment | — | — | 56.8 | — |
| 12/03 | ISM Prices Paid | 70 | — | 71.6 | — |
| 12/03 | ISM New Orders | — | — | 57.4 | — |
| 12/03 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | 17.20m | — | 17.50m | — |
| 12/05 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 5.50% | — |
| 12/05 | ADP Employment Change | 195k | — | 227k | — |
| 12/05 | Nonfarm Productivity | 2.30% | — | 2.20% | — |
| 12/05 | Unit Labor Costs | 1.00% | — | 1.20% | — |
| 12/05 | Markit US Services PMI | 54.4 | — | 54.4 | — |
| 12/05 | Markit US Composite PMI | — | — | 54.4 | — |
| 12/05 | ISM Non-Manufacturing Index | 59 | — | 60.3 | — |
| 12/05 | U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book | ||||
| 12/06 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | — | 153.60% | — |
| 12/06 | Trade Balance | -$55.0b | — | -$54.0b | — |
| 12/06 | Initial Jobless Claims | 225k | — | 234k | — |
| 12/06 | Continuing Claims | 1695k | — | 1710k | — |
| 12/06 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 60.6 | — |
| 12/06 | Factory Orders | -2.00% | — | 0.70% | — |
| 12/06 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | — | — | 0.40% | — |
| 12/06 | Durable Goods Orders | -2.40% | — | -4.40% | — |
| 12/06 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.10% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 12/06 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 0.00% | — |
| 12/06 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 0.30% | — |
| 12/06 | Household Change in Net Worth | — | — | $2191b | — |
| 12/07 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 198k | — | 250k | — |
| 12/07 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | — | 0k | — |
| 12/07 | Change in Private Payrolls | 200k | — | 246k | — |
| 12/07 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | 18k | — | 32k | — |
| 12/07 | Unemployment Rate | 3.70% | — | 3.70% | — |
| 12/07 | Underemployment Rate | — | — | 7.40% | — |
| 12/07 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 12/07 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 3.10% | — | 3.10% | — |
| 12/07 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.5 | — | 34.5 | — |
| 12/07 | Labor Force Participation Rate | 62.90% | — | 62.90% | — |
| 12/07 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.70% | — | 0.70% | — |
| 12/07 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | — | — | 0.20% | — |
| 12/07 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 97 | — | 97.5 | — |
| 12/07 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | — | 112.3 | — |
| 12/07 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 88.1 | — |
| 12/07 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.80% | — |
| 12/07 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.60% | — |
| 12/07 | Consumer Credit | $15.000b | — | $10.923b | — |