December 4, 2019 Headlines

An overnight Bloomberg story suggesting a phase one trade deal is closer than most think is sparking a partial recovery in risk markets today following yesterday’s sell off. Treasury yields are up 1-3 bps higher and the curve modestly steeper (yields down 6-10 bps yesterday). The article reports that US and Chinese officials are moving closer to an agreement on the amount of tariffs that would be rolled back in a phase one deal, and it also suggested that the recent Hong Kong and Xinjiang legislation are unlikely to have an impact on negotiations. Sources familiar with the negotiations said they expect the deal to get done before the December 15 tariff increase. If true, this would be quite the turnaround from yesterday’s negative assessment, but this also isn’t the first time we’ve seen reports that a deal was imminent (but never came to fruition).

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
12/2/2019 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 52.2 52.6 52.2
12/2/2019 ISM Manufacturing 49.2 48.1 48.3
12/2/2019 ISM Employment 48.2 46.6 47.7
12/2/2019 ISM Prices Paid 47 46.7 45.5
12/2/2019 ISM New Orders 49 47.2 49.1
12/2/2019 Construction Spending MoM 0.40% -0.80% 0.50% -0.30%
12/3/2019 Wards Total Vehicle Sales 16.90m 17.09m 16.55m
12/4/2019 MBA Mortgage Applications -9.20% 1.50%
12/4/2019 ADP Employment Change 135k 67k 125k 121k
12/4/2019 Markit US Services PMI 51.6 51.6
12/4/2019 Markit US Composite PMI 51.9
12/4/2019 ISM Non-Manufacturing Index 54.5 54.7
12/5/2019 Challenger Job Cuts YoY -33.50%
12/5/2019 Initial Jobless Claims 215k 213k
12/5/2019 Continuing Claims 1660k 1640k
12/5/2019 Trade Balance -$48.6b -$52.5b
12/5/2019 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 60.5
12/5/2019 Factory Orders 0.30% -0.60%
12/5/2019 Factory Orders Ex Trans -0.10%
12/5/2019 Durable Goods Orders 0.60% 0.60%
12/5/2019 Durables Ex Transportation 0.60% 0.60%
12/5/2019 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air 1.20%
12/5/2019 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air 0.80%
12/6/2019 Two-Month Payroll Net Revision
12/6/2019 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 190k 128k
12/6/2019 Change in Private Payrolls 178k 131k
12/6/2019 Change in Manufact. Payrolls 40k -36k
12/6/2019 Unemployment Rate 3.60% 3.60%
12/6/2019 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 0.30% 0.20%
12/6/2019 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 3.00% 3.00%
12/6/2019 Average Weekly Hours All Employees 34.4 34.4
12/6/2019 Labor Force Participation Rate 63.30%
12/6/2019 Underemployment Rate 7.00%
12/6/2019 Wholesale Inventories MoM 0.20% 0.20%
12/6/2019 Wholesale Trade Sales MoM 0.00%
12/6/2019 U. of Mich. Sentiment 97 96.8
12/6/2019 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 112.8 111.6
12/6/2019 U. of Mich. Expectations 87.5 87.3
12/6/2019 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 2.50%
12/6/2019 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 2.50%
12/6/2019 Consumer Credit $16.000b $9.513b







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