December 4, 2019 Headlines

An overnight Bloomberg story suggesting a phase one trade deal is closer than most think is sparking a partial recovery in risk markets today following yesterday’s sell off. Treasury yields are up 1-3 bps higher and the curve modestly steeper (yields down 6-10 bps yesterday). The article reports that US and Chinese officials are moving closer to an agreement on the amount of tariffs that would be rolled back in a phase one deal, and it also suggested that the recent Hong Kong and Xinjiang legislation are unlikely to have an impact on negotiations. Sources familiar with the negotiations said they expect the deal to get done before the December 15 tariff increase. If true, this would be quite the turnaround from yesterday’s negative assessment, but this also isn’t the first time we’ve seen reports that a deal was imminent (but never came to fruition).

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

Date	Event	Survey	Actual	Prior	Revised
12/2/2019	Markit US Manufacturing PMI	52.2	52.6	52.2	—
12/2/2019	ISM Manufacturing	49.2	48.1	48.3	—
12/2/2019	ISM Employment	48.2	46.6	47.7	—
12/2/2019	ISM Prices Paid	47	46.7	45.5	—
12/2/2019	ISM New Orders	49	47.2	49.1	—
12/2/2019	Construction Spending MoM	0.40%	-0.80%	0.50%	-0.30%
12/3/2019	Wards Total Vehicle Sales	16.90m	17.09m	16.55m	—
12/4/2019	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	-9.20%	1.50%	—
12/4/2019	ADP Employment Change	135k	67k	125k	121k
12/4/2019	Markit US Services PMI	51.6	—	51.6	—
12/4/2019	Markit US Composite PMI	—	—	51.9	—
12/4/2019	ISM Non-Manufacturing Index	54.5	—	54.7	—
12/5/2019	Challenger Job Cuts YoY	—	—	-33.50%	—
12/5/2019	Initial Jobless Claims	215k	—	213k	—
12/5/2019	Continuing Claims	1660k	—	1640k	—
12/5/2019	Trade Balance	-$48.6b	—	-$52.5b	—
12/5/2019	Bloomberg Consumer Comfort	—	—	60.5	—
12/5/2019	Factory Orders	0.30%	—	-0.60%	—
12/5/2019	Factory Orders Ex Trans	—	—	-0.10%	—
12/5/2019	Durable Goods Orders	0.60%	—	0.60%	—
12/5/2019	Durables Ex Transportation	0.60%	—	0.60%	—
12/5/2019	Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air	—	—	1.20%	—
12/5/2019	Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air	—	—	0.80%	—
12/6/2019	Two-Month Payroll Net Revision	—	—	—	—
12/6/2019	Change in Nonfarm Payrolls	190k	—	128k	—
12/6/2019	Change in Private Payrolls	178k	—	131k	—
12/6/2019	Change in Manufact. Payrolls	40k	—	-36k	—
12/6/2019	Unemployment Rate	3.60%	—	3.60%	—
12/6/2019	Average Hourly Earnings MoM	0.30%	—	0.20%	—
12/6/2019	Average Hourly Earnings YoY	3.00%	—	3.00%	—
12/6/2019	Average Weekly Hours All Employees	34.4	—	34.4	—
12/6/2019	Labor Force Participation Rate	—	—	63.30%	—
12/6/2019	Underemployment Rate	—	—	7.00%	—
12/6/2019	Wholesale Inventories MoM	0.20%	—	0.20%	—
12/6/2019	Wholesale Trade Sales MoM	—	—	0.00%	—
12/6/2019	U. of Mich. Sentiment	97	—	96.8	—
12/6/2019	U. of Mich. Current Conditions	112.8	—	111.6	—
12/6/2019	U. of Mich. Expectations	87.5	—	87.3	—
12/6/2019	U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation	—	—	2.50%	—
12/6/2019	U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation	—	—	2.50%	—
12/6/2019	Consumer Credit	$16.000b	—	$9.513b	—

Subscribe Today!

Subscribe to our email list and get the latest articles and announcements from ALM First.

Recent Articles

ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content.Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First.Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.