December 4, 2019 Headlines

An overnight Bloomberg story suggesting a phase one trade deal is closer than most think is sparking a partial recovery in risk markets today following yesterday’s sell off. Treasury yields are up 1-3 bps higher and the curve modestly steeper (yields down 6-10 bps yesterday). The article reports that US and Chinese officials are moving closer to an agreement on the amount of tariffs that would be rolled back in a phase one deal, and it also suggested that the recent Hong Kong and Xinjiang legislation are unlikely to have an impact on negotiations. Sources familiar with the negotiations said they expect the deal to get done before the December 15 tariff increase. If true, this would be quite the turnaround from yesterday’s negative assessment, but this also isn’t the first time we’ve seen reports that a deal was imminent (but never came to fruition).

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

12/2/2019Markit US Manufacturing PMI52.252.652.2
12/2/2019ISM Manufacturing49.248.148.3
12/2/2019ISM Employment48.246.647.7
12/2/2019ISM Prices Paid4746.745.5
12/2/2019ISM New Orders4947.249.1
12/2/2019Construction Spending MoM0.40%-0.80%0.50%-0.30%
12/3/2019Wards Total Vehicle Sales16.90m17.09m16.55m
12/4/2019MBA Mortgage Applications-9.20%1.50%
12/4/2019ADP Employment Change135k67k125k121k
12/4/2019Markit US Services PMI51.651.6
12/4/2019Markit US Composite PMI51.9
12/4/2019ISM Non-Manufacturing Index54.554.7
12/5/2019Challenger Job Cuts YoY-33.50%
12/5/2019Initial Jobless Claims215k213k
12/5/2019Continuing Claims1660k1640k
12/5/2019Trade Balance-$48.6b-$52.5b
12/5/2019Bloomberg Consumer Comfort60.5
12/5/2019Factory Orders0.30%-0.60%
12/5/2019Factory Orders Ex Trans-0.10%
12/5/2019Durable Goods Orders0.60%0.60%
12/5/2019Durables Ex Transportation0.60%0.60%
12/5/2019Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air1.20%
12/5/2019Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.80%
12/6/2019Two-Month Payroll Net Revision
12/6/2019Change in Nonfarm Payrolls190k128k
12/6/2019Change in Private Payrolls178k131k
12/6/2019Change in Manufact. Payrolls40k-36k
12/6/2019Unemployment Rate3.60%3.60%
12/6/2019Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%0.20%
12/6/2019Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.00%3.00%
12/6/2019Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.434.4
12/6/2019Labor Force Participation Rate63.30%
12/6/2019Underemployment Rate7.00%
12/6/2019Wholesale Inventories MoM0.20%0.20%
12/6/2019Wholesale Trade Sales MoM0.00%
12/6/2019U. of Mich. Sentiment9796.8
12/6/2019U. of Mich. Current Conditions112.8111.6
12/6/2019U. of Mich. Expectations87.587.3
12/6/2019U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.50%
12/6/2019U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.50%
12/6/2019Consumer Credit$16.000b$9.513b







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