December 4, 2020 Headlines

Nonfarm payrolls added 245,000 jobs in November, more than 200,000 below expectations, and the headline unemployment rate held steady at 6.7%, as expected. Regarding the latter, household employment fell 74,000 on the month, but a 400,000 decline in the official labor force pushed the labor participation rate down 20 bps and kept the unemployment rate unchanged.  This was the first decline in household employment since April. A slowdown in job growth was expected in light of the recent increases in weekly jobless claims amid renewed Covid restrictions in parts of the country, but this was clearly more moderation than was expected. U.S. equities futures are up 30-40 bps and Treasury yields higher and steeper following the release of the jobs data, likely on speculation that a weaker jobs report increases the probability of a new fiscal aid package getting done in Congress before year-end.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Surv(M) Actual Prior Revised
11/30/20 MNI Chicago PMI 59 58.2 61.1 —
11/30/20 Pending Home Sales MoM 1.00% -1.10% -2.20% -2.00%
11/30/20 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY — 19.50% 21.90% 22.20%
11/30/20 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 14.3 12 19.8 —
12/01/20 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 56.7 56.7 56.7 —
12/01/20 ISM Manufacturing 58 57.5 59.3 —
12/01/20 ISM New Orders — 65.1 67.9 —
12/01/20 ISM Prices Paid 65 65.4 65.5 —
12/01/20 ISM Employment — 48.4 53.2 —
12/01/20 Construction Spending MoM 0.80% 1.30% 0.30% -0.50%
12/01/20 Wards Total Vehicle Sales 16.10m 15.55m 16.21m —
12/02/20 MBA Mortgage Applications — -0.60% 3.90% —
12/02/20 ADP Employment Change 440k 307k 365k 404k
12/02/20 U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
12/03/20 Challenger Job Cuts YoY — 45.40% 60.40% —
12/03/20 Initial Jobless Claims 775k 712k 778k 787k
12/03/20 Continuing Claims 5800k 5520k 6071k 6089k
12/03/20 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort — 49.3 49.6 —
12/03/20 Markit US Services PMI 57.5 58.4 57.7 —
12/03/20 Markit US Composite PMI — 58.6 57.9 —
12/03/20 ISM Services Index 55.8 55.9 56.6 —
12/04/20 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 460k 245k 638k 610k
12/04/20 Two-Month Payroll Net Revision — 11k — —
12/04/20 Change in Private Payrolls 540k 344k 906k 877k
12/04/20 Change in Manufact. Payrolls 40k 27k 38k 33k
12/04/20 Unemployment Rate 6.70% 6.70% 6.90% —
12/04/20 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 0.10% 0.30% 0.10% —
12/04/20 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 4.20% 4.40% 4.50% 4.40%
12/04/20 Average Weekly Hours All Employees 34.8 34.8 34.8 —
12/04/20 Labor Force Participation Rate 61.70% 61.50% 61.70% —
12/04/20 Underemployment Rate — 12.00% 12.10% —
12/04/20 Trade Balance -$64.8b -$63.1b -$63.9b -$62.1b
12/04/20 Factory Orders 0.80% — 1.10% —
12/04/20 Factory Orders Ex Trans 1.10% — 0.50% —
12/04/20 Durable Goods Orders 1.30% — 1.30% —
12/04/20 Durables Ex Transportation 1.30% — 1.30% —
12/04/20 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air 0.70% — 0.70% —
12/04/20 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air — — 2.30% —

Subscribe Today!

Subscribe to our email list and get the latest articles and announcements from ALM First.

Subscribe
ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content. Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First. Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.