December 4, 2020 Headlines

Nonfarm payrolls added 245,000 jobs in November, more than 200,000 below expectations, and the headline unemployment rate held steady at 6.7%, as expected. Regarding the latter, household employment fell 74,000 on the month, but a 400,000 decline in the official labor force pushed the labor participation rate down 20 bps and kept the unemployment rate unchanged.  This was the first decline in household employment since April. A slowdown in job growth was expected in light of the recent increases in weekly jobless claims amid renewed Covid restrictions in parts of the country, but this was clearly more moderation than was expected. U.S. equities futures are up 30-40 bps and Treasury yields higher and steeper following the release of the jobs data, likely on speculation that a weaker jobs report increases the probability of a new fiscal aid package getting done in Congress before year-end.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurv(M)ActualPriorRevised
11/30/20MNI Chicago PMI5958.261.1
11/30/20Pending Home Sales MoM1.00%-1.10%-2.20%-2.00%
11/30/20Pending Home Sales NSA YoY19.50%21.90%22.20%
11/30/20Dallas Fed Manf. Activity14.31219.8
12/01/20Markit US Manufacturing PMI56.756.756.7
12/01/20ISM Manufacturing5857.559.3
12/01/20ISM New Orders65.167.9
12/01/20ISM Prices Paid6565.465.5
12/01/20ISM Employment48.453.2
12/01/20Construction Spending MoM0.80%1.30%0.30%-0.50%
12/01/20Wards Total Vehicle Sales16.10m15.55m16.21m
12/02/20MBA Mortgage Applications-0.60%3.90%
12/02/20ADP Employment Change440k307k365k404k
12/02/20U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
12/03/20Challenger Job Cuts YoY45.40%60.40%
12/03/20Initial Jobless Claims775k712k778k787k
12/03/20Continuing Claims5800k5520k6071k6089k
12/03/20Bloomberg Consumer Comfort49.349.6
12/03/20Markit US Services PMI57.558.457.7
12/03/20Markit US Composite PMI58.657.9
12/03/20ISM Services Index55.855.956.6
12/04/20Change in Nonfarm Payrolls460k245k638k610k
12/04/20Two-Month Payroll Net Revision11k
12/04/20Change in Private Payrolls540k344k906k877k
12/04/20Change in Manufact. Payrolls40k27k38k33k
12/04/20Unemployment Rate6.70%6.70%6.90%
12/04/20Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.10%0.30%0.10%
12/04/20Average Hourly Earnings YoY4.20%4.40%4.50%4.40%
12/04/20Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.834.834.8
12/04/20Labor Force Participation Rate61.70%61.50%61.70%
12/04/20Underemployment Rate12.00%12.10%
12/04/20Trade Balance-$64.8b-$63.1b-$63.9b-$62.1b
12/04/20Factory Orders0.80%1.10%
12/04/20Factory Orders Ex Trans1.10%0.50%
12/04/20Durable Goods Orders1.30%1.30%
12/04/20Durables Ex Transportation1.30%1.30%
12/04/20Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.70%0.70%
12/04/20Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air2.30%

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