December 5, 2019 Headlines

Heavy new issuance in European Government bonds and continued risk-on sentiment weighed on US Treasury yields. The market has remained focused on the potential for a phase one trade deal between the US and China as the Dec 15^th tariff hike approaches. Recent reports have suggested officials are moving closer to an agreement on the tariff amount to be scaled back. In addition, both the Hong Kong and Xinjiang legislation will have little impact on the negotiations.

Chris Eckhoff
Associate, Investment Management Group

Date	Event	Survey	Actual	Prior	Revised
12/02/19	Markit US Manufacturing PMI	52.2	52.6	52.2	—
12/02/19	ISM Manufacturing	49.2	48.1	48.3	—
12/02/19	ISM Employment	48.2	46.6	47.7	—
12/02/19	ISM Prices Paid	47	46.7	45.5	—
12/02/19	ISM New Orders	49	47.2	49.1	—
12/02/19	Construction Spending MoM	0.40%	-0.80%	0.50%	-0.30%
12/03/19	Wards Total Vehicle Sales	16.90m	17.09m	16.55m	—
12/04/19	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	-9.20%	1.50%	—
12/04/19	ADP Employment Change	135k	67k	125k	121k
12/04/19	Markit US Services PMI	51.6	51.6	51.6	—
12/04/19	Markit US Composite PMI	—	52	51.9	—
12/04/19	ISM Non-Manufacturing Index	54.5	53.9	54.7	—
12/05/19	Challenger Job Cuts YoY	—	-16.00%	-33.50%	—
12/05/19	Initial Jobless Claims	215k	203k	213k	—
12/05/19	Continuing Claims	1660k	1693k	1640k	1642k
12/05/19	Trade Balance	-$48.5b	-$47.2b	-$52.5b	-$51.1b
12/05/19	Bloomberg Consumer Comfort	—	61.7	60.5	—
12/05/19	Factory Orders	0.30%	—	-0.60%	—
12/05/19	Factory Orders Ex Trans	—	—	-0.10%	—
12/05/19	Durable Goods Orders	0.60%	—	0.60%	—
12/05/19	Durables Ex Transportation	0.60%	—	0.60%	—
12/05/19	Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air	—	—	1.20%	—
12/05/19	Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air	—	—	0.80%	—
12/06/19	Two-Month Payroll Net Revision	—	—	—	—
12/06/19	Change in Nonfarm Payrolls	185k	—	128k	—
12/06/19	Change in Private Payrolls	179k	—	131k	—
12/06/19	Change in Manufact. Payrolls	40k	—	-36k	—
12/06/19	Unemployment Rate	3.60%	—	3.60%	—
12/06/19	Average Hourly Earnings MoM	0.30%	—	0.20%	—
12/06/19	Average Hourly Earnings YoY	3.00%	—	3.00%	—
12/06/19	Average Weekly Hours All Employees	34.4	—	34.4	—
12/06/19	Labor Force Participation Rate	—	—	63.30%	—
12/06/19	Underemployment Rate	—	—	7.00%	—
12/06/19	Wholesale Inventories MoM	0.20%	—	0.20%	—
12/06/19	Wholesale Trade Sales MoM	—	—	0.00%	—
12/06/19	U. of Mich. Sentiment	97	—	96.8	—
12/06/19	U. of Mich. Current Conditions	112.8	—	111.6	—
12/06/19	U. of Mich. Expectations	87.5	—	87.3	—
12/06/19	U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation	—	—	2.50%	—
12/06/19	U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation	—	—	2.50%	—
12/06/19	Consumer Credit	$16.000b	—	$9.513b	—

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