December 6, 2019 Headlines

US Treasuries are 5 basis points lower this morning following constructive headlines on the trade war and a surge in non-farm payrolls. Last night, China’s finance ministry said it has started the process of waiving retaliatory tariffs on US pork and soy. The procedural step continues the positive tone that both countries are slowly inching closer to a broad phase one trade deal. Risk-on sentiment extended into the morning following a strong jobs report that easily exceeded even the most bullish forecasts. Despite GM workers adding roughly 46k jobs, the headline number came in at 266k which beat surveyed expectations of 180k. In addition, the previous two months were revised upwards.

Chris Eckhoff
Associate, Investment Management Group

Date Time	Event	Survey	Actual	Prior	Revised
12/2/2019	Markit US Manufacturing PMI	52.2	52.6	52.2	—
12/2/2019	ISM Manufacturing	49.2	48.1	48.3	—
12/2/2019	ISM Employment	48.2	46.6	47.7	—
12/2/2019	ISM Prices Paid	47	46.7	45.5	—
12/2/2019	ISM New Orders	49	47.2	49.1	—
12/2/2019	Construction Spending MoM	0.40%	-0.80%	0.50%	-0.30%
12/3/2019	Wards Total Vehicle Sales	16.90m	17.09m	16.55m	—
12/4/2019	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	-9.20%	1.50%	—
12/4/2019	ADP Employment Change	135k	67k	125k	121k
12/4/2019	Markit US Services PMI	51.6	51.6	51.6	—
12/4/2019	Markit US Composite PMI	—	52	51.9	—
12/4/2019	ISM Non-Manufacturing Index	54.5	53.9	54.7	—
12/5/2019	Challenger Job Cuts YoY	—	-16.00%	-33.50%	—
12/5/2019	Initial Jobless Claims	215k	203k	213k	—
12/5/2019	Continuing Claims	1660k	1693k	1640k	1642k
12/5/2019	Trade Balance	-$48.5b	-$47.2b	-$52.5b	-$51.1b
12/5/2019	Bloomberg Consumer Comfort	—	61.7	60.5	—
12/5/2019	Factory Orders	0.30%	0.30%	-0.60%	-0.80%
12/5/2019	Factory Orders Ex Trans	—	0.20%	-0.10%	-0.30%
12/5/2019	Durable Goods Orders	0.60%	0.50%	0.60%	—
12/5/2019	Durables Ex Transportation	0.60%	0.50%	0.60%	—
12/5/2019	Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air	—	1.10%	1.20%	—
12/5/2019	Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air	—	0.80%	0.80%	—
12/6/2019	Change in Nonfarm Payrolls	180k	266k	128k	156k
12/6/2019	Two-Month Payroll Net Revision	—	41k	—	—
12/6/2019	Change in Private Payrolls	178k	254k	131k	163k
12/6/2019	Change in Manufact. Payrolls	40k	54k	-36k	-43k
12/6/2019	Unemployment Rate	3.60%	3.50%	3.60%	—
12/6/2019	Average Hourly Earnings MoM	0.30%	0.20%	0.20%	0.40%
12/6/2019	Average Hourly Earnings YoY	3.00%	3.10%	3.00%	3.20%
12/6/2019	Average Weekly Hours All Employees	34.4	34.4	34.4	—
12/6/2019	Labor Force Participation Rate	—	63.20%	63.30%	—
12/6/2019	Underemployment Rate	—	6.90%	7.00%	—
12/6/2019	Wholesale Inventories MoM	0.20%	—	0.20%	—
12/6/2019	Wholesale Trade Sales MoM	—	—	0.00%	—
12/6/2019	U. of Mich. Sentiment	97	—	96.8	—
12/6/2019	U. of Mich. Current Conditions	112.8	—	111.6	—
12/6/2019	U. of Mich. Expectations	87.5	—	87.3	—
12/6/2019	U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation	—	—	2.50%	—
12/6/2019	U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation	—	—	2.50%	—
12/6/2019	Consumer Credit	$16.000b	—	$9.513b	—

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