December 6, 2019 Headlines

US Treasuries are 5 basis points lower this morning following constructive headlines on the trade war and a surge in non-farm payrolls. Last night, China’s finance ministry said it has started the process of waiving retaliatory tariffs on US pork and soy. The procedural step continues the positive tone that both countries are slowly inching closer to a broad phase one trade deal. Risk-on sentiment extended into the morning following a strong jobs report that easily exceeded even the most bullish forecasts. Despite GM workers adding roughly 46k jobs, the headline number came in at 266k which beat surveyed expectations of 180k. In addition, the previous two months were revised upwards.  

Chris Eckhoff
Associate, Investment Management Group

Date TimeEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
12/2/2019Markit US Manufacturing PMI52.252.652.2
12/2/2019ISM Manufacturing49.248.148.3
12/2/2019ISM Employment48.246.647.7
12/2/2019ISM Prices Paid4746.745.5
12/2/2019ISM New Orders4947.249.1
12/2/2019Construction Spending MoM0.40%-0.80%0.50%-0.30%
12/3/2019Wards Total Vehicle Sales16.90m17.09m16.55m
12/4/2019MBA Mortgage Applications-9.20%1.50%
12/4/2019ADP Employment Change135k67k125k121k
12/4/2019Markit US Services PMI51.651.651.6
12/4/2019Markit US Composite PMI5251.9
12/4/2019ISM Non-Manufacturing Index54.553.954.7
12/5/2019Challenger Job Cuts YoY-16.00%-33.50%
12/5/2019Initial Jobless Claims215k203k213k
12/5/2019Continuing Claims1660k1693k1640k1642k
12/5/2019Trade Balance-$48.5b-$47.2b-$52.5b-$51.1b
12/5/2019Bloomberg Consumer Comfort61.760.5
12/5/2019Factory Orders0.30%0.30%-0.60%-0.80%
12/5/2019Factory Orders Ex Trans0.20%-0.10%-0.30%
12/5/2019Durable Goods Orders0.60%0.50%0.60%
12/5/2019Durables Ex Transportation0.60%0.50%0.60%
12/5/2019Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air1.10%1.20%
12/5/2019Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.80%0.80%
12/6/2019Change in Nonfarm Payrolls180k266k128k156k
12/6/2019Two-Month Payroll Net Revision41k
12/6/2019Change in Private Payrolls178k254k131k163k
12/6/2019Change in Manufact. Payrolls40k54k-36k-43k
12/6/2019Unemployment Rate3.60%3.50%3.60%
12/6/2019Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%0.20%0.20%0.40%
12/6/2019Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.00%3.10%3.00%3.20%
12/6/2019Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.434.434.4
12/6/2019Labor Force Participation Rate63.20%63.30%
12/6/2019Underemployment Rate6.90%7.00%
12/6/2019Wholesale Inventories MoM0.20%0.20%
12/6/2019Wholesale Trade Sales MoM0.00%
12/6/2019U. of Mich. Sentiment9796.8
12/6/2019U. of Mich. Current Conditions112.8111.6
12/6/2019U. of Mich. Expectations87.587.3
12/6/2019U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.50%
12/6/2019U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.50%
12/6/2019Consumer Credit$16.000b$9.513b

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