US Treasuries are 5 basis points lower this morning following constructive headlines on the trade war and a surge in non-farm payrolls. Last night, China’s finance ministry said it has started the process of waiving retaliatory tariffs on US pork and soy. The procedural step continues the positive tone that both countries are slowly inching closer to a broad phase one trade deal. Risk-on sentiment extended into the morning following a strong jobs report that easily exceeded even the most bullish forecasts. Despite GM workers adding roughly 46k jobs, the headline number came in at 266k which beat surveyed expectations of 180k. In addition, the previous two months were revised upwards.
Chris Eckhoff
Associate, Investment Management Group
Date Time | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
12/2/2019 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | 52.2 | 52.6 | 52.2 | — |
12/2/2019 | ISM Manufacturing | 49.2 | 48.1 | 48.3 | — |
12/2/2019 | ISM Employment | 48.2 | 46.6 | 47.7 | — |
12/2/2019 | ISM Prices Paid | 47 | 46.7 | 45.5 | — |
12/2/2019 | ISM New Orders | 49 | 47.2 | 49.1 | — |
12/2/2019 | Construction Spending MoM | 0.40% | -0.80% | 0.50% | -0.30% |
12/3/2019 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | 16.90m | 17.09m | 16.55m | — |
12/4/2019 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -9.20% | 1.50% | — |
12/4/2019 | ADP Employment Change | 135k | 67k | 125k | 121k |
12/4/2019 | Markit US Services PMI | 51.6 | 51.6 | 51.6 | — |
12/4/2019 | Markit US Composite PMI | — | 52 | 51.9 | — |
12/4/2019 | ISM Non-Manufacturing Index | 54.5 | 53.9 | 54.7 | — |
12/5/2019 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | -16.00% | -33.50% | — |
12/5/2019 | Initial Jobless Claims | 215k | 203k | 213k | — |
12/5/2019 | Continuing Claims | 1660k | 1693k | 1640k | 1642k |
12/5/2019 | Trade Balance | -$48.5b | -$47.2b | -$52.5b | -$51.1b |
12/5/2019 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | 61.7 | 60.5 | — |
12/5/2019 | Factory Orders | 0.30% | 0.30% | -0.60% | -0.80% |
12/5/2019 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | — | 0.20% | -0.10% | -0.30% |
12/5/2019 | Durable Goods Orders | 0.60% | 0.50% | 0.60% | — |
12/5/2019 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.60% | 0.50% | 0.60% | — |
12/5/2019 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | — | 1.10% | 1.20% | — |
12/5/2019 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | 0.80% | 0.80% | — |
12/6/2019 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 180k | 266k | 128k | 156k |
12/6/2019 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | 41k | — | — |
12/6/2019 | Change in Private Payrolls | 178k | 254k | 131k | 163k |
12/6/2019 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | 40k | 54k | -36k | -43k |
12/6/2019 | Unemployment Rate | 3.60% | 3.50% | 3.60% | — |
12/6/2019 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.30% | 0.20% | 0.20% | 0.40% |
12/6/2019 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 3.00% | 3.10% | 3.00% | 3.20% |
12/6/2019 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.4 | 34.4 | 34.4 | — |
12/6/2019 | Labor Force Participation Rate | — | 63.20% | 63.30% | — |
12/6/2019 | Underemployment Rate | — | 6.90% | 7.00% | — |
12/6/2019 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.20% | — |
12/6/2019 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | — | — | 0.00% | — |
12/6/2019 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 97 | — | 96.8 | — |
12/6/2019 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | 112.8 | — | 111.6 | — |
12/6/2019 | U. of Mich. Expectations | 87.5 | — | 87.3 | — |
12/6/2019 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.50% | — |
12/6/2019 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.50% | — |
12/6/2019 | Consumer Credit | $16.000b | — | $9.513b | — |
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