Weekend reports that Omicron cases have so far been less severe are fueling a mild risk-one trade in financial markets to start the week. Treasury yields are 3 basis points higher in near-parallel fashion across the term structure, and S&P 500 futures are up 0.3% (8:44am EST). The big focus for this week will be Thursday’s CPI report for November. The core rate is expected to rise to 4.9% y/y from 4.6% the prior month according to the Bloomberg survey, which is expected to solicit an acceleration of the current tapering pace at the December 15 FOMC meeting. Fed Chair Powell hinted that tapering could end “a few months earlier” in his Congressional testimony last week if inflation risks persisted, which would potentially imply an increase from $15 billion per month to $25 billion per month.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior | Revised |
12/07/21 | Nonfarm Productivity | -4.90% | — | -5.00% | — |
12/07/21 | Unit Labor Costs | 8.30% | — | 8.30% | — |
12/07/21 | Trade Balance | -$66.8b | — | -$80.9b | — |
12/07/21 | Consumer Credit | $25.000b | — | $29.913b | — |
12/08/21 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -7.20% | — |
12/08/21 | JOLTS Job Openings | 10469k | — | 10438k | — |
12/09/21 | Initial Jobless Claims | 220k | — | 222k | — |
12/09/21 | Continuing Claims | 1910k | — | 1956k | — |
12/09/21 | Langer Consumer Comfort | — | — | 51 | — |
12/09/21 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | 1.00% | — | 1.10% | — |
12/09/21 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 2.20% | — | 2.20% | — |
12/09/21 | Household Change in Net Worth | — | — | $5849b | — |
12/10/21 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | — | -1.20% | -1.30% |
12/10/21 | CPI MoM | 0.70% | — | 0.90% | — |
12/10/21 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.50% | — | 0.60% | — |
12/10/21 | CPI YoY | 6.80% | — | 6.20% | — |
12/10/21 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 4.90% | — | 4.60% | — |
12/10/21 | CPI Index NSA | 278.114 | — | 276.589 | — |
12/10/21 | CPI Core Index SA | 283.524 | — | 281.695 | — |
12/10/21 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | — | -1.60% | — |
12/10/21 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 68 | — | 67.4 | — |
12/10/21 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | 73.4 | — | 73.6 | — |
12/10/21 | U. of Mich. Expectations | 62 | — | 63.5 | — |
12/10/21 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | 5.00% | — | 4.90% | — |
12/10/21 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 3.00% | — |
12/10/21 | Monthly Budget Statement | -$194.0b | — | -$165.1b | — |
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