December 6, 2021 Headlines

Weekend reports that Omicron cases have so far been less severe are fueling a mild risk-one trade in financial markets to start the week. Treasury yields are 3 basis points higher in near-parallel fashion across the term structure, and S&P 500 futures are up 0.3% (8:44am EST). The big focus for this week will be Thursday’s CPI report for November. The core rate is expected to rise to 4.9% y/y from 4.6% the prior month according to the Bloomberg survey, which is expected to solicit an acceleration of the current tapering pace at the December 15 FOMC meeting. Fed Chair Powell hinted that tapering could end “a few months earlier” in his Congressional testimony last week if inflation risks persisted, which would potentially imply an increase from $15 billion per month to $25 billion per month.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

12/07/21Nonfarm Productivity-4.90%-5.00%
12/07/21Unit Labor Costs8.30%8.30%
12/07/21Trade Balance-$66.8b-$80.9b
12/07/21Consumer Credit$25.000b$29.913b
12/08/21MBA Mortgage Applications-7.20%
12/08/21JOLTS Job Openings10469k10438k
12/09/21Initial Jobless Claims220k222k
12/09/21Continuing Claims1910k1956k
12/09/21Langer Consumer Comfort51
12/09/21Wholesale Trade Sales MoM1.00%1.10%
12/09/21Wholesale Inventories MoM2.20%2.20%
12/09/21Household Change in Net Worth$5849b
12/10/21Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY-1.20%-1.30%
12/10/21CPI MoM0.70%0.90%
12/10/21CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.50%0.60%
12/10/21CPI YoY6.80%6.20%
12/10/21CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY4.90%4.60%
12/10/21CPI Index NSA278.114276.589
12/10/21CPI Core Index SA283.524281.695
12/10/21Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY-1.60%
12/10/21U. of Mich. Sentiment6867.4
12/10/21U. of Mich. Current Conditions73.473.6
12/10/21U. of Mich. Expectations6263.5
12/10/21U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation5.00%4.90%
12/10/21U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.00%
12/10/21Monthly Budget Statement-$194.0b-$165.1b


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