December 7, 2021 Headlines

Treasury yields drifted slightly lower overnight in quiet trading ahead of Thursday’s CPI report. In a recording yesterday for a Financial Times conference, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that it may take “a couple of years” to resolve some supply chain disruptions, but at the same time, Yellen said she saw no evidence of a wage-price spiral in the U.S. She also suggested that the U.S. may need to take some more protectionist measures in the future to reduce supply chain risks in key areas.

ECB leaders are reassessing their commitment to additional monetary stimulus amid the latest Covid variant outbreak, according to a Financial Times article. Recent reports suggest that Omicron isn’t strong enough to materially suppress demand, but it could cause further supply chain disruptions. As such, the ECB could announce a hawkish shift relative to current market expectations at next week’s meeting for both its asset purchase program and forward guidance for interest rate policy, similar to what the Fed has done recently.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
12/7/2021 Nonfarm Productivity -4.90% -5.20% -5.00% —
12/7/2021 Unit Labor Costs 8.30% 9.60% 8.30% —
12/7/2021 Trade Balance -$66.8b -$67.1b -$80.9b -$81.4b
12/7/2021 Consumer Credit $25.000b — $29.913b —
12/8/2021 MBA Mortgage Applications — — -7.20% —
12/8/2021 JOLTS Job Openings 10469k — 10438k —
12/9/2021 Initial Jobless Claims 220k — 222k —
12/9/2021 Continuing Claims 1910k — 1956k —
12/9/2021 Langer Consumer Comfort — — 51 —
12/9/2021 Wholesale Trade Sales MoM 1.00% — 1.10% —
12/9/2021 Wholesale Inventories MoM 2.20% — 2.20% —
12/9/2021 Household Change in Net Worth — — $5849b —
12/10/2021 Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY — — -1.20% -1.30%
12/10/2021 CPI MoM 0.70% — 0.90% —
12/10/2021 CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.50% — 0.60% —
12/10/2021 CPI YoY 6.80% — 6.20% —
12/10/2021 CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 4.90% — 4.60% —
12/10/2021 CPI Index NSA 278.114 — 276.589 —
12/10/2021 CPI Core Index SA 283.524 — 281.695 —
12/10/2021 Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY — — -1.60% —
12/10/2021 U. of Mich. Sentiment 68 — 67.4 —
12/10/2021 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 73.4 — 73.6 —
12/10/2021 U. of Mich. Expectations 62 — 63.5 —
12/10/2021 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 5.00% — 4.90% —
12/10/2021 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation — — 3.00% —
12/10/2021 Monthly Budget Statement -$194.0b — -$165.1b —

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