December 7, 2021 Headlines

Treasury yields drifted slightly lower overnight in quiet trading ahead of Thursday’s CPI report. In a recording yesterday for a Financial Times conference, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that it may take “a couple of years” to resolve some supply chain disruptions, but at the same time, Yellen said she saw no evidence of a wage-price spiral in the U.S. She also suggested that the U.S. may need to take some more protectionist measures in the future to reduce supply chain risks in key areas.

ECB leaders are reassessing their commitment to additional monetary stimulus amid the latest Covid variant outbreak, according to a Financial Times article. Recent reports suggest that Omicron isn’t strong enough to materially suppress demand, but it could cause further supply chain disruptions. As such, the ECB could announce a hawkish shift relative to current market expectations at next week’s meeting for both its asset purchase program and forward guidance for interest rate policy, similar to what the Fed has done recently.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

12/7/2021Nonfarm Productivity-4.90%-5.20%-5.00%
12/7/2021Unit Labor Costs8.30%9.60%8.30%
12/7/2021Trade Balance-$66.8b-$67.1b-$80.9b-$81.4b
12/7/2021Consumer Credit$25.000b$29.913b
12/8/2021MBA Mortgage Applications-7.20%
12/8/2021JOLTS Job Openings10469k10438k
12/9/2021Initial Jobless Claims220k222k
12/9/2021Continuing Claims1910k1956k
12/9/2021Langer Consumer Comfort51
12/9/2021Wholesale Trade Sales MoM1.00%1.10%
12/9/2021Wholesale Inventories MoM2.20%2.20%
12/9/2021Household Change in Net Worth$5849b
12/10/2021Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY-1.20%-1.30%
12/10/2021CPI MoM0.70%0.90%
12/10/2021CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.50%0.60%
12/10/2021CPI YoY6.80%6.20%
12/10/2021CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY4.90%4.60%
12/10/2021CPI Index NSA278.114276.589
12/10/2021CPI Core Index SA283.524281.695
12/10/2021Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY-1.60%
12/10/2021U. of Mich. Sentiment6867.4
12/10/2021U. of Mich. Current Conditions73.473.6
12/10/2021U. of Mich. Expectations6263.5
12/10/2021U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation5.00%4.90%
12/10/2021U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.00%
12/10/2021Monthly Budget Statement-$194.0b-$165.1b

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