US Treasuries yields are slightly higher as European and Asian equities recovered overnight (FTSE +1.79% NI225+.82%). Crude oil prices bounced higher as well on news that OPEC reached an agreement to cut production. In the US, the markets are digesting the release of jobs and wage data that were slightly below expectations. Nonfarm payrolls came in at 155k jobs compared to an expected 198k, which is a substantial slowdown, but also well above Fed estimates of sustainable job growth. Unemployment and participation rates held steady 3.7% and 62.9%, respectively, which was right in line with expectations. Lastly, wage data was weaker than expected MoM but the YoY change was in line with expectations and unchanged at 3.1%. In summary, the jobs data was good but has not matched the recent outstanding reports. It is interesting that Fed Chair Powell characterized the labor markets as “very strong” in a speech late last night as he had most likely already seen the data.
Chris Eckhoff
Associate, Investment Management Group
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior |
| 12/03 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | 55.4 | 55.3 | 55.4 |
| 12/03 | Construction Spending MoM | 0.40% | -0.10% | 0.00% |
| 12/03 | ISM Manufacturing | 57.5 | 59.3 | 57.7 |
| 12/03 | ISM Employment | — | 58.4 | 56.8 |
| 12/03 | ISM Prices Paid | 70 | 60.7 | 71.6 |
| 12/03 | ISM New Orders | — | 62.1 | 57.4 |
| 12/03 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | 17.20m | 17.40m | 17.50m |
| 12/05 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | 2.00% | 5.50% |
| 12/05 | U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book | |||
| 12/05 | Beige Book Released Live Due to George H W Bush Funeral | |||
| 12/06 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | 51.50% | 153.60% |
| 12/06 | ADP Employment Change | 195k | 179k | 227k |
| 12/06 | Trade Balance | -$55.0b | -$55.5b | -$54.0b |
| 12/06 | Nonfarm Productivity | 2.30% | 2.30% | 2.20% |
| 12/06 | Unit Labor Costs | 1.00% | 0.90% | 1.20% |
| 12/06 | Initial Jobless Claims | 225k | 231k | 234k |
| 12/06 | Continuing Claims | 1690k | 1631k | 1710k |
| 12/06 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | 60.3 | 60.6 |
| 12/06 | Markit US Services PMI | 54.4 | 54.7 | 54.4 |
| 12/06 | Markit US Composite PMI | — | 54.7 | 54.4 |
| 12/06 | ISM Non-Manufacturing Index | 59 | 60.7 | 60.3 |
| 12/06 | Factory Orders | -2.00% | -2.10% | 0.70% |
| 12/06 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | — | 0.30% | 0.40% |
| 12/06 | Durable Goods Orders | -2.40% | -4.30% | -4.40% |
| 12/06 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.10% | 0.20% | 0.10% |
| 12/06 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | — | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 12/06 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | 0.30% | 0.30% |
| 12/06 | Household Change in Net Worth | — | $2070b | $2191b |
| 12/07 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 198k | 155k | 250k |
| 12/07 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | -12k | — |
| 12/07 | Change in Private Payrolls | 198k | 161k | 246k |
| 12/07 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | 18k | 27k | 32k |
| 12/07 | Unemployment Rate | 3.70% | 3.70% | 3.70% |
| 12/07 | Underemployment Rate | — | 7.60% | 7.40% |
| 12/07 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.30% | 0.20% | 0.20% |
| 12/07 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 3.10% | 3.10% | 3.10% |
| 12/07 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.5 | 34.4 | 34.5 |
| 12/07 | Labor Force Participation Rate | 62.90% | 62.90% | 62.90% |
| 12/07 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.70% | — | 0.70% |
| 12/07 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | — | — | 0.20% |
| 12/07 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 97 | — | 97.5 |
| 12/07 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | — | 112.3 |
| 12/07 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 88.1 |
| 12/07 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.80% |
| 12/07 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.60% |
| 12/07 | Consumer Credit | $15.000b | — | $10.923b |