Treasuries are little changed following the release of the November jobs report. This initial reaction has been more positive in equity markets (S&P 500 futures +7.5 points), and fixed income investors appear to be reacting to the weaker than expected wage data. Nonfarm payrolls added 228,000 jobs in November, 33,000 more than expected but offset somewhat by a 17,000 downward revision to October. The headline unemployment rate held unchanged at 4.1% (5 bps higher if rounding to 3 decimals), and the labor participation rate was unchanged as well.
Nonfarm payrolls growth has been robust for several years, but for much of 2017, investors have been more focused on the wage growth trend, which has generally been a disappointment in the eyes of most market participants. Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% in November versus expectations of a 0.3% gain, and wages were up 2.5% on a year-over-year basis versus 2.7% expected. On the surface, this another miss for a closely-watched category, but it was partly reflective of downward revisions to prior months. The overall inflation trend remains below the Fed’s target, but they have made it very clear in recent months that inflation (wages included) is high enough to continue with policy normalization.
Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
| Date Time | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 12/08/2017 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 195k | 228k | 261k | 244k |
| 12/08/2017 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | 3k | — | — |
| 12/08/2017 | Change in Private Payrolls | 195k | 221k | 252k | 247k |
| 12/08/2017 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | 15k | 31k | 24k | 23k |
| 12/08/2017 | Unemployment Rate | 4.10% | 4.10% | 4.10% | — |
| 12/08/2017 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.30% | 0.20% | 0.00% | -0.10% |
| 12/08/2017 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 2.70% | 2.50% | 2.40% | 2.30% |
| 12/08/2017 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.4 | 34.5 | 34.4 | — |
| 12/08/2017 | Labor Force Participation Rate | — | 62.70% | 62.70% | — |
| 12/08/2017 | Underemployment Rate | — | 8.00% | 7.90% | — |
| 12/08/2017 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | -0.40% | — | -0.40% | — |
| 12/08/2017 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | 0.30% | — | 1.30% | — |
| 12/08/2017 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 99 | — | 98.5 | — |
| 12/08/2017 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | 114.3 | — | 113.5 | — |
| 12/08/2017 | U. of Mich. Expectations | 90.5 | — | 88.9 | — |
| 12/08/2017 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.50% | — |
| 12/08/2017 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.40% | — |
| 12/11/2017 | JOLTS Job Openings | — | — | 6093 | — |
| 12/12/2017 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | 104 | — | 103.8 | — |
| 12/12/2017 | PPI Final Demand MoM | 0.40% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 12/12/2017 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 12/12/2017 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 12/12/2017 | PPI Final Demand YoY | 3.00% | — | 2.80% | — |
| 12/12/2017 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.40% | — | 2.40% | — |
| 12/12/2017 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | — | — | 2.30% | — |
| 12/12/2017 | Monthly Budget Statement | -$135.0b | — | -$63.2b | — |
| 12/13/2017 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 4.70% | — |
| 12/13/2017 | CPI MoM | 0.40% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 12/13/2017 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 12/13/2017 | CPI YoY | 2.20% | — | 2.00% | — |
| 12/13/2017 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 1.80% | — | 1.80% | — |
| 12/13/2017 | CPI Core Index SA | 253.961 | — | 253.428 | — |
| 12/13/2017 | CPI Index NSA | 246.797 | — | 246.663 | — |
| 12/13/2017 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | — | 0.40% | 0.30% |
| 12/13/2017 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | — | 0.40% | 0.20% |
| 12/13/2017 | FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) | 1.50% | — | 1.25% | — |
| 12/13/2017 | FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) | 1.25% | — | 1.00% | — |
| 12/14/2017 | Initial Jobless Claims | 239k | — | 236k | — |
| 12/14/2017 | Continuing Claims | — | — | 1908k | — |
| 12/14/2017 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 12/14/2017 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 0.70% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 12/14/2017 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 0.30% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 12/14/2017 | Retail Sales Control Group | 0.30% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 12/14/2017 | Import Price Index MoM | 0.80% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 12/14/2017 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | 0.10% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 12/14/2017 | Import Price Index YoY | — | — | 2.50% | — |
| 12/14/2017 | Export Price Index MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.00% | — |
| 12/14/2017 | Export Price Index YoY | — | — | 2.70% | — |
| 12/14/2017 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | 54 | — | 53.9 | — |
| 12/14/2017 | Markit US Services PMI | — | — | 54.5 | — |
| 12/14/2017 | Markit US Composite PMI | — | — | 54.5 | — |
| 12/14/2017 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 52.3 | — |
| 12/14/2017 | Business Inventories | -0.10% | — | 0.00% | — |
| 12/15/2017 | Empire Manufacturing | 18 | — | 19.4 | — |
| 12/15/2017 | Bloomberg Dec. United States Economic Survey | ||||
| 12/15/2017 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.90% | — |
| 12/15/2017 | Capacity Utilization | 77.20% | — | 77.00% | — |
| 12/15/2017 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | 0.20% | — | 1.30% | — |
| 12/15/2017 | Total Net TIC Flows | — | — | -$51.3b | — |
| 12/15/2017 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | — | — | $80.9b | — |