December 9, 2019 Headlines

The overnight trading session was quiet following the strong jobs report on Friday. US Treasury yields are 1-3bps lower along the curve and the S&P 500 is set to open -.11%. Looking ahead, this week is filled with economic releases, heavy Treasury supply, and geopolitical events. On Wednesday, the market will see the latest CPI release alongside the FOMC decision, which is expected to leave short term rates unchanged. However, market participants will need to wait until the following morning, December 12th, to see if the Fed announces any changes to the repo program. At the end of the week, retail sales will be released, in addition to a decision on U.S./China trade tariffs. Recent headlines last week have suggested that both sides were closer than many thought to securing a deal, but December 15th remains the key deadline before the US implements tariffs on $156 billion in consumer goods.

Chris Eckhoff
Associate, Investment Management Group

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
12/10/2019 NFIB Small Business Optimism 103 — 102.4 —
12/10/2019 Nonfarm Productivity -0.10% — -0.30% —
12/10/2019 Unit Labor Costs 3.40% — 3.60% —
12/11/2019 MBA Mortgage Applications — — -9.20% —
12/11/2019 CPI MoM 0.20% — 0.40% —
12/11/2019 CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.20% — 0.20% —
12/11/2019 CPI YoY 2.00% — 1.80% —
12/11/2019 CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 2.30% — 2.30% —
12/11/2019 CPI Core Index SA 265.46 — 265.011 —
12/11/2019 CPI Index NSA 257.215 — 257.346 —
12/11/2019 Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY — — 0.90% 1.10%
12/11/2019 Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY — — 1.20% 1.40%
12/11/2019 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 1.75% — 1.75% —
12/11/2019 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 1.50% — 1.50% —
12/11/2019 Interest Rate on Excess Reserves 1.55% — 1.55% —
12/11/2019 Monthly Budget Statement -$205.6b — -$134.5b —
12/12/2019 PPI Final Demand MoM 0.20% — 0.40% —
12/12/2019 PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.20% — 0.30% —
12/12/2019 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM 0.20% — 0.10% —
12/12/2019 PPI Final Demand YoY 1.20% — 1.10% —
12/12/2019 PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 1.70% — 1.60% —
12/12/2019 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY — — 1.50% —
12/12/2019 Initial Jobless Claims 215k — 203k —
12/12/2019 Continuing Claims 1678k — 1693k —
12/12/2019 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort — — 61.7 —
12/12/2019 Household Change in Net Worth — — $1830b —
12/13/2019 Import Price Index MoM 0.20% — -0.50% —
12/13/2019 Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM -0.10% — -0.10% —
12/13/2019 Import Price Index YoY -1.20% — -3.00% —
12/13/2019 Export Price Index MoM 0.10% — -0.10% —
12/13/2019 Export Price Index YoY — — -2.20% —
12/13/2019 Retail Sales Advance MoM 0.50% — 0.30% —
12/13/2019 Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM 0.40% — 0.20% —
12/13/2019 Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas 0.40% — 0.10% —
12/13/2019 Retail Sales Control Group 0.30% — 0.30% —
12/13/2019 Bloomberg Dec. United States Economic Survey
12/13/2019 Business Inventories 0.20% — 0.00% —

 

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