December 9, 2019 Headlines

The overnight trading session was quiet following the strong jobs report on Friday. US Treasury yields are 1-3bps lower along the curve and the S&P 500 is set to open -.11%. Looking ahead, this week is filled with economic releases, heavy Treasury supply, and geopolitical events. On Wednesday, the market will see the latest CPI release alongside the FOMC decision, which is expected to leave short term rates unchanged. However, market participants will need to wait until the following morning, December 12th, to see if the Fed announces any changes to the repo program. At the end of the week, retail sales will be released, in addition to a decision on U.S./China trade tariffs. Recent headlines last week have suggested that both sides were closer than many thought to securing a deal, but December 15th remains the key deadline before the US implements tariffs on $156 billion in consumer goods.

Chris Eckhoff
Associate, Investment Management Group

Date	Event	Survey	Actual	Prior	Revised
12/10/2019	NFIB Small Business Optimism	103	—	102.4	—
12/10/2019	Nonfarm Productivity	-0.10%	—	-0.30%	—
12/10/2019	Unit Labor Costs	3.40%	—	3.60%	—
12/11/2019	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	—	-9.20%	—
12/11/2019	CPI MoM	0.20%	—	0.40%	—
12/11/2019	CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM	0.20%	—	0.20%	—
12/11/2019	CPI YoY	2.00%	—	1.80%	—
12/11/2019	CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY	2.30%	—	2.30%	—
12/11/2019	CPI Core Index SA	265.46	—	265.011	—
12/11/2019	CPI Index NSA	257.215	—	257.346	—
12/11/2019	Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY	—	—	0.90%	1.10%
12/11/2019	Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY	—	—	1.20%	1.40%
12/11/2019	FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)	1.75%	—	1.75%	—
12/11/2019	FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)	1.50%	—	1.50%	—
12/11/2019	Interest Rate on Excess Reserves	1.55%	—	1.55%	—
12/11/2019	Monthly Budget Statement	-$205.6b	—	-$134.5b	—
12/12/2019	PPI Final Demand MoM	0.20%	—	0.40%	—
12/12/2019	PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM	0.20%	—	0.30%	—
12/12/2019	PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM	0.20%	—	0.10%	—
12/12/2019	PPI Final Demand YoY	1.20%	—	1.10%	—
12/12/2019	PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY	1.70%	—	1.60%	—
12/12/2019	PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY	—	—	1.50%	—
12/12/2019	Initial Jobless Claims	215k	—	203k	—
12/12/2019	Continuing Claims	1678k	—	1693k	—
12/12/2019	Bloomberg Consumer Comfort	—	—	61.7	—
12/12/2019	Household Change in Net Worth	—	—	$1830b	—
12/13/2019	Import Price Index MoM	0.20%	—	-0.50%	—
12/13/2019	Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM	-0.10%	—	-0.10%	—
12/13/2019	Import Price Index YoY	-1.20%	—	-3.00%	—
12/13/2019	Export Price Index MoM	0.10%	—	-0.10%	—
12/13/2019	Export Price Index YoY	—	—	-2.20%	—
12/13/2019	Retail Sales Advance MoM	0.50%	—	0.30%	—
12/13/2019	Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM	0.40%	—	0.20%	—
12/13/2019	Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas	0.40%	—	0.10%	—
12/13/2019	Retail Sales Control Group	0.30%	—	0.30%	—
12/13/2019	Bloomberg Dec. United States Economic Survey
12/13/2019	Business Inventories	0.20%	—	0.00%	—

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