The overnight trading session was quiet following the strong jobs report on Friday. US Treasury yields are 1-3bps lower along the curve and the S&P 500 is set to open -.11%. Looking ahead, this week is filled with economic releases, heavy Treasury supply, and geopolitical events. On Wednesday, the market will see the latest CPI release alongside the FOMC decision, which is expected to leave short term rates unchanged. However, market participants will need to wait until the following morning, December 12th, to see if the Fed announces any changes to the repo program. At the end of the week, retail sales will be released, in addition to a decision on U.S./China trade tariffs. Recent headlines last week have suggested that both sides were closer than many thought to securing a deal, but December 15th remains the key deadline before the US implements tariffs on $156 billion in consumer goods.
Chris Eckhoff
Associate, Investment Management Group
Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
12/10/2019 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | 103 | — | 102.4 | — |
12/10/2019 | Nonfarm Productivity | -0.10% | — | -0.30% | — |
12/10/2019 | Unit Labor Costs | 3.40% | — | 3.60% | — |
12/11/2019 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -9.20% | — |
12/11/2019 | CPI MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.40% | — |
12/11/2019 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.20% | — |
12/11/2019 | CPI YoY | 2.00% | — | 1.80% | — |
12/11/2019 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.30% | — | 2.30% | — |
12/11/2019 | CPI Core Index SA | 265.46 | — | 265.011 | — |
12/11/2019 | CPI Index NSA | 257.215 | — | 257.346 | — |
12/11/2019 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | — | 0.90% | 1.10% |
12/11/2019 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | — | 1.20% | 1.40% |
12/11/2019 | FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) | 1.75% | — | 1.75% | — |
12/11/2019 | FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) | 1.50% | — | 1.50% | — |
12/11/2019 | Interest Rate on Excess Reserves | 1.55% | — | 1.55% | — |
12/11/2019 | Monthly Budget Statement | -$205.6b | — | -$134.5b | — |
12/12/2019 | PPI Final Demand MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.40% | — |
12/12/2019 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.30% | — |
12/12/2019 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.10% | — |
12/12/2019 | PPI Final Demand YoY | 1.20% | — | 1.10% | — |
12/12/2019 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 1.70% | — | 1.60% | — |
12/12/2019 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | — | — | 1.50% | — |
12/12/2019 | Initial Jobless Claims | 215k | — | 203k | — |
12/12/2019 | Continuing Claims | 1678k | — | 1693k | — |
12/12/2019 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 61.7 | — |
12/12/2019 | Household Change in Net Worth | — | — | $1830b | — |
12/13/2019 | Import Price Index MoM | 0.20% | — | -0.50% | — |
12/13/2019 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | -0.10% | — | -0.10% | — |
12/13/2019 | Import Price Index YoY | -1.20% | — | -3.00% | — |
12/13/2019 | Export Price Index MoM | 0.10% | — | -0.10% | — |
12/13/2019 | Export Price Index YoY | — | — | -2.20% | — |
12/13/2019 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 0.50% | — | 0.30% | — |
12/13/2019 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 0.40% | — | 0.20% | — |
12/13/2019 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 0.40% | — | 0.10% | — |
12/13/2019 | Retail Sales Control Group | 0.30% | — | 0.30% | — |
12/13/2019 | Bloomberg Dec. United States Economic Survey | ||||
12/13/2019 | Business Inventories | 0.20% | — | 0.00% | — |
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