A rally in risk assets combined with a moderately hawkish tone from yesterday’s FOMC meeting pushed Treasury prices lower overnight and into this morning with the curve up 1 to 2 bps. Most of the major stock indices were up along with a 0.8% rally in crude oil prices.

In their meeting yesterday, the Fed left its benchmark rate unchanged but reemphasized their plan for more hikes in the future, the market is currently pricing in a 93% chance of a hike at the next meeting. In their comments, it appeared that there was renewed confidence in inflation hitting the 2% target, as the committee citing strength in the labor market as well as the overall economy.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

Date Time Event Survey Actual
02/01/2018 Challenger Job Cuts YoY -2.80%
02/01/2018 Nonfarm Productivity 0.70% -0.10%
02/01/2018 Unit Labor Costs 0.90% 2.00%
02/01/2018 Initial Jobless Claims 235k 230k
02/01/2018 Continuing Claims 1929k 1953k
02/01/2018 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort
02/01/2018 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 55.5
02/01/2018 Construction Spending MoM 0.40%
02/01/2018 ISM Manufacturing 58.6
02/01/2018 ISM Employment
02/01/2018 ISM Prices Paid 68.8
02/01/2018 ISM New Orders
02/01/2018 Wards Domestic Vehicle Sales 13.45m
02/01/2018 Wards Total Vehicle Sales 17.20m
02/02/2018 Annual Revisions: Establishment Survey
02/02/2018 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 180k
02/02/2018 Change in Private Payrolls 181k
02/02/2018 Change in Manufact. Payrolls 20k
02/02/2018 Unemployment Rate 4.10%
02/02/2018 Underemployment Rate
02/02/2018 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 0.20%
02/02/2018 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 2.60%
02/02/2018 Average Weekly Hours All Employees 34.5
02/02/2018 Labor Force Participation Rate
02/02/2018 U. of Mich. Sentiment 95
02/02/2018 U. of Mich. Current Conditions
02/02/2018 U. of Mich. Expectations
02/02/2018 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation
02/02/2018 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation
02/02/2018 Factory Orders 1.50%
02/02/2018 Factory Orders Ex Trans
02/02/2018 Durable Goods Orders
02/02/2018 Durables Ex Transportation
02/02/2018 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air
02/02/2018 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air
02/05/2018 Markit US Services PMI
02/05/2018 Markit US Composite PMI
02/05/2018 ISM Non-Manf. Composite 56.5
02/05/2018 MBA Mortgage Foreclosures
02/05/2018 Mortgage Delinquencies
02/06/2018 Trade Balance -$52.0b
02/06/2018 JOLTS Job Openings
02/07/2018 Consumer Credit $19.650b
02/07/2018 MBA Mortgage Applications
02/08/2018 Initial Jobless Claims
02/08/2018 Continuing Claims
02/08/2018 Bloomberg Feb. United States Economic Survey
02/08/2018 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort