A rally in risk assets combined with a moderately hawkish tone from yesterday’s FOMC meeting pushed Treasury prices lower overnight and into this morning with the curve up 1 to 2 bps. Most of the major stock indices were up along with a 0.8% rally in crude oil prices.
In their meeting yesterday, the Fed left its benchmark rate unchanged but reemphasized their plan for more hikes in the future, the market is currently pricing in a 93% chance of a hike at the next meeting. In their comments, it appeared that there was renewed confidence in inflation hitting the 2% target, as the committee citing strength in the labor market as well as the overall economy.
Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group
| Date Time | Event | Survey | Actual |
| 02/01/2018 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | -2.80% |
| 02/01/2018 | Nonfarm Productivity | 0.70% | -0.10% |
| 02/01/2018 | Unit Labor Costs | 0.90% | 2.00% |
| 02/01/2018 | Initial Jobless Claims | 235k | 230k |
| 02/01/2018 | Continuing Claims | 1929k | 1953k |
| 02/01/2018 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — |
| 02/01/2018 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | 55.5 | — |
| 02/01/2018 | Construction Spending MoM | 0.40% | — |
| 02/01/2018 | ISM Manufacturing | 58.6 | — |
| 02/01/2018 | ISM Employment | — | — |
| 02/01/2018 | ISM Prices Paid | 68.8 | — |
| 02/01/2018 | ISM New Orders | — | — |
| 02/01/2018 | Wards Domestic Vehicle Sales | 13.45m | — |
| 02/01/2018 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | 17.20m | — |
| 02/02/2018 | Annual Revisions: Establishment Survey | ||
| 02/02/2018 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 180k | — |
| 02/02/2018 | Change in Private Payrolls | 181k | — |
| 02/02/2018 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | 20k | — |
| 02/02/2018 | Unemployment Rate | 4.10% | — |
| 02/02/2018 | Underemployment Rate | — | — |
| 02/02/2018 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.20% | — |
| 02/02/2018 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 2.60% | — |
| 02/02/2018 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.5 | — |
| 02/02/2018 | Labor Force Participation Rate | — | — |
| 02/02/2018 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 95 | — |
| 02/02/2018 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | — |
| 02/02/2018 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — |
| 02/02/2018 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — |
| 02/02/2018 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — |
| 02/02/2018 | Factory Orders | 1.50% | — |
| 02/02/2018 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | — | — |
| 02/02/2018 | Durable Goods Orders | — | — |
| 02/02/2018 | Durables Ex Transportation | — | — |
| 02/02/2018 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | — | — |
| 02/02/2018 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | — |
| 02/05/2018 | Markit US Services PMI | — | — |
| 02/05/2018 | Markit US Composite PMI | — | — |
| 02/05/2018 | ISM Non-Manf. Composite | 56.5 | — |
| 02/05/2018 | MBA Mortgage Foreclosures | — | — |
| 02/05/2018 | Mortgage Delinquencies | — | — |
| 02/06/2018 | Trade Balance | -$52.0b | — |
| 02/06/2018 | JOLTS Job Openings | — | — |
| 02/07/2018 | Consumer Credit | $19.650b | — |
| 02/07/2018 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — |
| 02/08/2018 | Initial Jobless Claims | — | — |
| 02/08/2018 | Continuing Claims | — | — |
| 02/08/2018 | Bloomberg Feb. United States Economic Survey | ||
| 02/08/2018 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — |