A rally in risk assets combined with a moderately hawkish tone from yesterday’s FOMC meeting pushed Treasury prices lower overnight and into this morning with the curve up 1 to 2 bps. Most of the major stock indices were up along with a 0.8% rally in crude oil prices.

In their meeting yesterday, the Fed left its benchmark rate unchanged but reemphasized their plan for more hikes in the future, the market is currently pricing in a 93% chance of a hike at the next meeting. In their comments, it appeared that there was renewed confidence in inflation hitting the 2% target, as the committee citing strength in the labor market as well as the overall economy.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

Date TimeEventSurveyActual
02/01/2018Challenger Job Cuts YoY-2.80%
02/01/2018Nonfarm Productivity0.70%-0.10%
02/01/2018Unit Labor Costs0.90%2.00%
02/01/2018Initial Jobless Claims235k230k
02/01/2018Continuing Claims1929k1953k
02/01/2018Bloomberg Consumer Comfort
02/01/2018Markit US Manufacturing PMI55.5
02/01/2018Construction Spending MoM0.40%
02/01/2018ISM Manufacturing58.6
02/01/2018ISM Employment
02/01/2018ISM Prices Paid68.8
02/01/2018ISM New Orders
02/01/2018Wards Domestic Vehicle Sales13.45m
02/01/2018Wards Total Vehicle Sales17.20m
02/02/2018Annual Revisions: Establishment Survey
02/02/2018Change in Nonfarm Payrolls180k
02/02/2018Change in Private Payrolls181k
02/02/2018Change in Manufact. Payrolls20k
02/02/2018Unemployment Rate4.10%
02/02/2018Underemployment Rate
02/02/2018Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.20%
02/02/2018Average Hourly Earnings YoY2.60%
02/02/2018Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.5
02/02/2018Labor Force Participation Rate
02/02/2018U. of Mich. Sentiment95
02/02/2018U. of Mich. Current Conditions
02/02/2018U. of Mich. Expectations
02/02/2018U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation
02/02/2018U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation
02/02/2018Factory Orders1.50%
02/02/2018Factory Orders Ex Trans
02/02/2018Durable Goods Orders
02/02/2018Durables Ex Transportation
02/02/2018Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air
02/02/2018Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air
02/05/2018Markit US Services PMI
02/05/2018Markit US Composite PMI
02/05/2018ISM Non-Manf. Composite56.5
02/05/2018MBA Mortgage Foreclosures
02/05/2018Mortgage Delinquencies
02/06/2018Trade Balance-$52.0b
02/06/2018JOLTS Job Openings
02/07/2018Consumer Credit$19.650b
02/07/2018MBA Mortgage Applications
02/08/2018Initial Jobless Claims
02/08/2018Continuing Claims
02/08/2018Bloomberg Feb. United States Economic Survey
02/08/2018Bloomberg Consumer Comfort