February 1, 2021 Headlines

U.S. equity futures are up 65-100 basis points ahead of the open despite the Reddit crew of retail investors taking on sliver this morning, sending the price of the commodity up as much as 13%. Treasury yields are modestly higher and steeper on news that a group of 10 Republican Senators have requested a meeting with President Biden to discuss a compromise on Covid relief aid. The GOP proposal is reported to be in the $500-600 billion range, far less than the White House’s $1.9 trillion package. The former is said to include $160 billion for vaccine and other direct Covid response measures, as well as more targeted direct stimulus checks. This week’s economic calendar is headlined by the January jobs report on Friday, which is expected to show modest gains in nonfarm payrolls (+50k), and several Fed leaders will be speaking this week, all regional bank presidents.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Surv(M) Actual Prior Revised
02/01/21 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 59.1 — 59.1 —
02/01/21 Construction Spending MoM 1.00% — 0.90% —
02/01/21 ISM Manufacturing 60 — 60.7 60.5
02/01/21 ISM Prices Paid 76 — 77.6 —
02/01/21 ISM New Orders — — 67.9 67.5
02/01/21 ISM Employment — — 51.5 51.7
02/02/21 Wards Total Vehicle Sales 16.10m — 16.27m —
02/03/21 MBA Mortgage Applications — — -4.10% —
02/03/21 ADP Employment Change 60k — -123k —
02/03/21 Markit US Composite PMI — — 58 —
02/03/21 Markit US Services PMI 57.4 — 57.5 —
02/03/21 ISM Services Index 56.7 — 57.2 57.7
02/04/21 Challenger Job Cuts YoY — — 134.50% —
02/04/21 Unit Labor Costs 4.00% — -6.60% —
02/04/21 Nonfarm Productivity -3.00% — 4.60% —
02/04/21 Initial Jobless Claims 830k — 847k —
02/04/21 Continuing Claims 4700k — 4771k —
02/04/21 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort — — 45.7 —
02/04/21 Factory Orders Ex Trans — — 0.80% —
02/04/21 Factory Orders 0.70% — 1.00% —
02/04/21 Durable Goods Orders 0.20% — 0.20% —
02/04/21 Durables Ex Transportation 0.70% — 0.70% —
02/04/21 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air 0.60% — 0.60% —
02/04/21 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air — — 0.50% —
02/05/21 Revisions: Establishment Survey
02/05/21 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 50k — -140k —
02/05/21 Two-Month Payroll Net Revision — — 135k —
02/05/21 Change in Private Payrolls 90k — -95k —
02/05/21 Change in Manufact. Payrolls 31k — 38k —
02/05/21 Unemployment Rate 6.70% — 6.70% —
02/05/21 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 0.30% — 0.80% —
02/05/21 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 5.00% — 5.10% —
02/05/21 Average Weekly Hours All Employees 34.7 — 34.7 —
02/05/21 Labor Force Participation Rate 61.50% — 61.50% —
02/05/21 Trade Balance -$65.7b — -$68.1b —
02/05/21 Underemployment Rate — — 11.70% —
02/05/21 Consumer Credit $12.000b — $15.274b —

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