February 1, 2021 Headlines

U.S. equity futures are up 65-100 basis points ahead of the open despite the Reddit crew of retail investors taking on sliver this morning, sending the price of the commodity up as much as 13%. Treasury yields are modestly higher and steeper on news that a group of 10 Republican Senators have requested a meeting with President Biden to discuss a compromise on Covid relief aid. The GOP proposal is reported to be in the $500-600 billion range, far less than the White House’s $1.9 trillion package. The former is said to include $160 billion for vaccine and other direct Covid response measures, as well as more targeted direct stimulus checks. This week’s economic calendar is headlined by the January jobs report on Friday, which is expected to show modest gains in nonfarm payrolls (+50k), and several Fed leaders will be speaking this week, all regional bank presidents.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurv(M)ActualPriorRevised
02/01/21Markit US Manufacturing PMI59.159.1
02/01/21Construction Spending MoM1.00%0.90%
02/01/21ISM Manufacturing6060.760.5
02/01/21ISM Prices Paid7677.6
02/01/21ISM New Orders67.967.5
02/01/21ISM Employment51.551.7
02/02/21Wards Total Vehicle Sales16.10m16.27m
02/03/21MBA Mortgage Applications-4.10%
02/03/21ADP Employment Change60k-123k
02/03/21Markit US Composite PMI58
02/03/21Markit US Services PMI57.457.5
02/03/21ISM Services Index56.757.257.7
02/04/21Challenger Job Cuts YoY134.50%
02/04/21Unit Labor Costs4.00%-6.60%
02/04/21Nonfarm Productivity-3.00%4.60%
02/04/21Initial Jobless Claims830k847k
02/04/21Continuing Claims4700k4771k
02/04/21Bloomberg Consumer Comfort45.7
02/04/21Factory Orders Ex Trans0.80%
02/04/21Factory Orders0.70%1.00%
02/04/21Durable Goods Orders0.20%0.20%
02/04/21Durables Ex Transportation0.70%0.70%
02/04/21Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.60%0.60%
02/04/21Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.50%
02/05/21Revisions: Establishment Survey
02/05/21Change in Nonfarm Payrolls50k-140k
02/05/21Two-Month Payroll Net Revision135k
02/05/21Change in Private Payrolls90k-95k
02/05/21Change in Manufact. Payrolls31k38k
02/05/21Unemployment Rate6.70%6.70%
02/05/21Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%0.80%
02/05/21Average Hourly Earnings YoY5.00%5.10%
02/05/21Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.734.7
02/05/21Labor Force Participation Rate61.50%61.50%
02/05/21Trade Balance-$65.7b-$68.1b
02/05/21Underemployment Rate11.70%
02/05/21Consumer Credit$12.000b$15.274b

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