Treasury yields fluctuated overnight on both positive and negative headlines related to the coronavirus outbreak. On the negative side, markets reacted in early trading to reports that the death toll has now exceeded the total number from SARS in 2003/2004, and reports of new travel restrictions also surfaced overnight. On the positive side, reports suggest that the growth rate of new coronavirus cases has stabilized. Treasury yields are now about 2 bps lower on the day, and S&P 500 futures are unchanged. This week’s economic calendar will be headlined by January CPI and retail sales reports, but as we learned with last week’s jobs report, financial markets aren’t necessarily focusing on the data trend amid the flood of coronavirus headlines. Nevertheless, it will be important to see if there is a continuation of December’s relatively strong retail sales data. Personal consumption growth weakened in the Q4 GDP report, but sales appeared to have rebounded in December, potentially providing positive momentum heading into 2020.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
2/11/2020 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | 103.3 | — | 102.7 | — |
2/11/2020 | JOLTS Job Openings | 6850 | — | 6800 | — |
2/11/2020 | Mortgage Delinquencies | — | — | 3.97% | — |
2/11/2020 | MBA Mortgage Foreclosures | — | — | 0.84% | — |
2/12/2020 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 5.00% | — |
2/12/2020 | Monthly Budget Statement | -$10.0b | — | -$13.3b | — |
2/13/2020 | CPI MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.20% | — |
2/13/2020 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.10% | — |
2/13/2020 | CPI YoY | 2.40% | — | 2.30% | — |
2/13/2020 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.20% | — | 2.30% | — |
2/13/2020 | CPI Core Index SA | 266.45 | — | 265.92 | — |
2/13/2020 | CPI Index NSA | 257.87 | — | 256.97 | — |
2/13/2020 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | — | 0.60% | — |
2/13/2020 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | — | 0.00% | 0.10% |
2/13/2020 | Initial Jobless Claims | 211k | — | 202k | — |
2/13/2020 | Continuing Claims | 1743k | — | 1751k | — |
2/13/2020 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 66.5 | — |
2/14/2020 | Import Price Index MoM | -0.20% | — | 0.30% | — |
2/14/2020 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | -0.10% | — | 0.20% | — |
2/14/2020 | Import Price Index YoY | 0.20% | — | 0.50% | — |
2/14/2020 | Export Price Index MoM | -0.10% | — | -0.20% | — |
2/14/2020 | Export Price Index YoY | — | — | -0.70% | — |
2/14/2020 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.30% | — |
2/14/2020 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.70% | — |
2/14/2020 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 0.30% | — | 0.50% | — |
2/14/2020 | Retail Sales Control Group | 0.30% | — | 0.50% | — |
2/14/2020 | Industrial Production MoM | -0.20% | — | -0.30% | — |
2/14/2020 | Capacity Utilization | 76.80% | — | 77.00% | — |
2/14/2020 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | -0.10% | — | 0.20% | — |
2/14/2020 | Bloomberg Feb. United States Economic Survey | ||||
2/14/2020 | Business Inventories | 0.10% | — | -0.20% | — |
2/14/2020 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 99.3 | — | 99.8 | — |
2/14/2020 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | 115 | — | 114.4 | — |
2/14/2020 | U. of Mich. Expectations | 90 | — | 90.5 | — |
2/14/2020 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | 2.40% | — | 2.50% | — |
2/14/2020 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.50% | — |
2/14/2020 | Revisions — Producer Price Index |
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