February 10, 2020 Headlines

Treasury yields fluctuated overnight on both positive and negative headlines related to the coronavirus outbreak. On the negative side, markets reacted in early trading to reports that the death toll has now exceeded the total number from SARS in 2003/2004, and reports of new travel restrictions also surfaced overnight. On the positive side, reports suggest that the growth rate of new coronavirus cases has stabilized.  Treasury yields are now about 2 bps lower on the day, and S&P 500 futures are unchanged. This week’s economic calendar will be headlined by January CPI and retail sales reports, but as we learned with last week’s jobs report, financial markets aren’t necessarily focusing on the data trend amid the flood of coronavirus headlines. Nevertheless, it will be important to see if there is a continuation of December’s relatively strong retail sales data. Personal consumption growth weakened in the Q4 GDP report, but sales appeared to have rebounded in December, potentially providing positive momentum heading into 2020.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

2/11/2020NFIB Small Business Optimism103.3102.7
2/11/2020JOLTS Job Openings68506800
2/11/2020Mortgage Delinquencies3.97%
2/11/2020MBA Mortgage Foreclosures0.84%
2/12/2020MBA Mortgage Applications5.00%
2/12/2020Monthly Budget Statement-$10.0b-$13.3b
2/13/2020CPI MoM0.20%0.20%
2/13/2020CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.10%
2/13/2020CPI YoY2.40%2.30%
2/13/2020CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.20%2.30%
2/13/2020CPI Core Index SA266.45265.92
2/13/2020CPI Index NSA257.87256.97
2/13/2020Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY0.60%
2/13/2020Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY0.00%0.10%
2/13/2020Initial Jobless Claims211k202k
2/13/2020Continuing Claims1743k1751k
2/13/2020Bloomberg Consumer Comfort66.5
2/14/2020Import Price Index MoM-0.20%0.30%
2/14/2020Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM-0.10%0.20%
2/14/2020Import Price Index YoY0.20%0.50%
2/14/2020Export Price Index MoM-0.10%-0.20%
2/14/2020Export Price Index YoY-0.70%
2/14/2020Retail Sales Advance MoM0.30%0.30%
2/14/2020Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.30%0.70%
2/14/2020Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.30%0.50%
2/14/2020Retail Sales Control Group0.30%0.50%
2/14/2020Industrial Production MoM-0.20%-0.30%
2/14/2020Capacity Utilization76.80%77.00%
2/14/2020Manufacturing (SIC) Production-0.10%0.20%
2/14/2020Bloomberg Feb. United States Economic Survey
2/14/2020Business Inventories0.10%-0.20%
2/14/2020U. of Mich. Sentiment99.399.8
2/14/2020U. of Mich. Current Conditions115114.4
2/14/2020U. of Mich. Expectations9090.5
2/14/2020U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.40%2.50%
2/14/2020U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.50%
2/14/2020Revisions — Producer Price Index


Subscribe Today!

Subscribe to our email list and get the latest articles and announcements from ALM First.

ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content.Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First.Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.