February 10, 2020 Headlines

Treasury yields fluctuated overnight on both positive and negative headlines related to the coronavirus outbreak. On the negative side, markets reacted in early trading to reports that the death toll has now exceeded the total number from SARS in 2003/2004, and reports of new travel restrictions also surfaced overnight. On the positive side, reports suggest that the growth rate of new coronavirus cases has stabilized.  Treasury yields are now about 2 bps lower on the day, and S&P 500 futures are unchanged. This week’s economic calendar will be headlined by January CPI and retail sales reports, but as we learned with last week’s jobs report, financial markets aren’t necessarily focusing on the data trend amid the flood of coronavirus headlines. Nevertheless, it will be important to see if there is a continuation of December’s relatively strong retail sales data. Personal consumption growth weakened in the Q4 GDP report, but sales appeared to have rebounded in December, potentially providing positive momentum heading into 2020.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
2/11/2020NFIB Small Business Optimism103.3—102.7—
2/11/2020JOLTS Job Openings6850—6800—
2/11/2020Mortgage Delinquencies——3.97%—
2/11/2020MBA Mortgage Foreclosures——0.84%—
2/12/2020MBA Mortgage Applications——5.00%—
2/12/2020Monthly Budget Statement-$10.0b—-$13.3b—
2/13/2020CPI MoM0.20%—0.20%—
2/13/2020CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%—0.10%—
2/13/2020CPI YoY2.40%—2.30%—
2/13/2020CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.20%—2.30%—
2/13/2020CPI Core Index SA266.45—265.92—
2/13/2020CPI Index NSA257.87—256.97—
2/13/2020Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY——0.60%—
2/13/2020Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY——0.00%0.10%
2/13/2020Initial Jobless Claims211k—202k—
2/13/2020Continuing Claims1743k—1751k—
2/13/2020Bloomberg Consumer Comfort——66.5—
2/14/2020Import Price Index MoM-0.20%—0.30%—
2/14/2020Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM-0.10%—0.20%—
2/14/2020Import Price Index YoY0.20%—0.50%—
2/14/2020Export Price Index MoM-0.10%—-0.20%—
2/14/2020Export Price Index YoY——-0.70%—
2/14/2020Retail Sales Advance MoM0.30%—0.30%—
2/14/2020Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.30%—0.70%—
2/14/2020Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.30%—0.50%—
2/14/2020Retail Sales Control Group0.30%—0.50%—
2/14/2020Industrial Production MoM-0.20%—-0.30%—
2/14/2020Capacity Utilization76.80%—77.00%—
2/14/2020Manufacturing (SIC) Production-0.10%—0.20%—
2/14/2020Bloomberg Feb. United States Economic Survey
2/14/2020Business Inventories0.10%—-0.20%—
2/14/2020U. of Mich. Sentiment99.3—99.8—
2/14/2020U. of Mich. Current Conditions115—114.4—
2/14/2020U. of Mich. Expectations90—90.5—
2/14/2020U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.40%—2.50%—
2/14/2020U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation——2.50%—
2/14/2020Revisions — Producer Price Index

 

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