February 10, 2022 Headlines

An early morning rally in Treasuries has reversed to a sell-off following another upside surprise in the inflation data. Both headline and core CPI rose 0.6% m/m in January versus expectations of 0.4% and 0.5% gains, respectively. The headline gauge also set a fresh 40-year high of 7.5% year-over-year in January, and the core rate was slightly above expectations at 6% y/y. Higher shelter costs contributed strongly to the core rate increase, with owners’ equivalent rent up 42 basis points (bps), and medical services were up 60 bps. The 2-year Treasury yield is now up 7 bps on the day with market pricing now implying a 50 bps rate hike in March. Equities have reversed sharply as well, with S&P 500 futures swinging from slightly positive before the CPI release to currently down 0.92% (8:57am EST). The markets have already done a lot of the heavy lifting for the Fed with a 2%+ short-term rate priced into Treasuries by 2024.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Surv(M) Actual Prior Revised
02/07/22 Consumer Credit $21.900b $18.898b $39.991b $38.821b
02/08/22 NFIB Small Business Optimism 97.5 97.1 98.9
02/08/22 Trade Balance -$83.0b -$80.7b -$80.2b -$79.3b
02/08/22 Revisions: CPI
02/09/22 MBA Mortgage Applications -8.10% 12.00%
02/09/22 Wholesale Inventories MoM 2.10% 2.20% 2.10%
02/09/22 Wholesale Trade Sales MoM 1.50% 0.20% 1.30% 1.70%
02/10/22 Initial Jobless Claims 230k 223k 238k 239k
02/10/22 Continuing Claims 1615k 1621k 1628k 1621k
02/10/22 CPI MoM 0.40% 0.60% 0.50% 0.60%
02/10/22 CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.50% 0.60% 0.60%
02/10/22 CPI YoY 7.30% 7.50% 7.00%
02/10/22 CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 5.90% 6.00% 5.50%
02/10/22 CPI Index NSA 280.441 281.148 278.802
02/10/22 CPI Core Index SA 286.065 286.431 284.759 284.77
02/10/22 Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY -1.70% -2.40% -2.00%
02/10/22 Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY -3.10% -2.30% -2.00%
02/10/22 Monthly Budget Statement $23.0b -$162.8b
02/10/22 Revisions: PPI
02/11/22 Bloomberg Feb. United States Economic Survey
02/11/22 U. of Mich. Sentiment 67 67.2
02/11/22 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 72.1 72
02/11/22 U. of Mich. Expectations 64.5 64.1
02/11/22 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 5.00% 4.90%
02/11/22 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 3.10%


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