February 11, 2020 Headlines

It was a relatively quiet overnight session for Treasuries with Japanese markets closed for a holiday. Yields are unchanged to slightly higher on the day, and equity futures are up 30-50 bps ahead of the open. Fed Chair Powell is testifying before Congress this morning. His prepared comments didn’t really deviate from the Fed script. He said current policy appears to be in the right place to “support continued economic growth,” and he only briefly mentioned that the Fed is closely monitoring the emergence of the coronavirus as it relates to “disruptions in China that spill over to the rest of the global economy.” Basically, a generic acknowledgment of current macro risks. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose 1.5 points to 104.3 in January (103.5 expected), well above the historical average of 98.1. Six of the 10 survey components improved from the prior month, including a jump in sales expectations and earnings trends, and at the same time, uncertainty regarding future conditions also increased.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

2/11/2020NFIB Small Business Optimism103.5104.3102.7
2/11/2020Revisions: Consumer Price Index
2/11/2020Mortgage Delinquencies3.97%
2/11/2020MBA Mortgage Foreclosures0.84%
2/11/2020JOLTS Job Openings69256800
2/12/2020MBA Mortgage Applications5.00%
2/12/2020Monthly Budget Statement-$10.0b$8.7b
2/13/2020CPI MoM0.20%0.20%
2/13/2020CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.10%
2/13/2020CPI YoY2.40%2.30%
2/13/2020CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.20%2.30%
2/13/2020CPI Core Index SA266.45265.92265.832
2/13/2020CPI Index NSA257.86256.97
2/13/2020Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY0.60%
2/13/2020Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY0.00%0.10%
2/13/2020Initial Jobless Claims210k202k
2/13/2020Continuing Claims1738k1751k
2/13/2020Bloomberg Consumer Comfort66.5
2/14/2020Import Price Index MoM-0.20%0.30%
2/14/2020Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM-0.10%0.20%
2/14/2020Import Price Index YoY0.20%0.50%
2/14/2020Export Price Index MoM-0.10%-0.20%
2/14/2020Export Price Index YoY-0.20%-0.70%
2/14/2020Retail Sales Advance MoM0.30%0.30%
2/14/2020Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.30%0.70%
2/14/2020Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.30%0.50%
2/14/2020Retail Sales Control Group0.30%0.50%
2/14/2020Industrial Production MoM-0.20%-0.30%
2/14/2020Capacity Utilization76.80%77.00%
2/14/2020Manufacturing (SIC) Production-0.10%0.20%
2/14/2020Bloomberg Feb. United States Economic Survey
2/14/2020Business Inventories0.10%-0.20%
2/14/2020U. of Mich. Sentiment99.499.8
2/14/2020U. of Mich. Current Conditions114.5114.4
2/14/2020U. of Mich. Expectations90.390.5
2/14/2020U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.40%2.50%
2/14/2020U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.50%
2/14/2020Revisions — Producer Price Index


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