February 11, 2021 Headlines

Treasuries are essentially unchanged across the curve this morning following a quiet overnight session. In a speech yesterday, Fed Chair Powell delivered more ultra-dovish guidance, saying that the U.S. is “still very far from a strong labor market.” Powell said there are downside risks from a slower vaccine rollout, and he was dismissive of inflation risks.  Initial jobless claims for last week were higher than expected but still slightly down from the prior week. As some states continue to ease restrictions amid improved Covid-19 data, we could see a return to bigger monthly gains in payrolls in the coming months. 

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

02/08/21Revisions: CPI
02/09/21NFIB Small Business Optimism979595.9
02/09/21JOLTS Job Openings6400664665276572
02/10/21MBA Mortgage Applications-4.10%8.10%
02/10/21CPI MoM0.30%0.30%0.40%0.20%
02/10/21CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.00%0.10%0.00%
02/10/21CPI YoY1.50%1.40%1.40%
02/10/21CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY1.50%1.40%1.60%
02/10/21CPI Index NSA261.8261.582260.474
02/10/21CPI Core Index SA270.592270.025270.117269.94
02/10/21Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY6.10%4.90%5.30%
02/10/21Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY4.00%3.70%4.10%
02/10/21Wholesale Inventories MoM0.10%0.30%0.10%
02/10/21Wholesale Trade Sales MoM1.20%0.20%0.30%
02/10/21Monthly Budget Statement-$157.5b-$162.8b-$32.6b
02/11/21Initial Jobless Claims760k793k779k812k
02/11/21Continuing Claims4420k4545k4592k4690k
02/11/21Bloomberg Consumer Comfort44.6
02/11/21Mortgage Delinquencies7.65%
02/11/21MBA Mortgage Foreclosures0.59%
02/12/21Bloomberg Feb. United States Economic Survey
02/12/21U. of Mich. Sentiment80.879
02/12/21U. of Mich. Current Conditions8986.7
02/12/21U. of Mich. Expectations7674
02/12/21U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation3.00%
02/12/21U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.70%
02/12/21Revisions: PPI

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