February 11, 2021 Headlines

Treasuries are essentially unchanged across the curve this morning following a quiet overnight session. In a speech yesterday, Fed Chair Powell delivered more ultra-dovish guidance, saying that the U.S. is “still very far from a strong labor market.” Powell said there are downside risks from a slower vaccine rollout, and he was dismissive of inflation risks. Initial jobless claims for last week were higher than expected but still slightly down from the prior week. As some states continue to ease restrictions amid improved Covid-19 data, we could see a return to bigger monthly gains in payrolls in the coming months.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date	Event	Surv(M)	Actual	Prior	Revised
02/08/21	Revisions: CPI
02/09/21	NFIB Small Business Optimism	97	95	95.9	—
02/09/21	JOLTS Job Openings	6400	6646	6527	6572
02/10/21	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	-4.10%	8.10%	—
02/10/21	CPI MoM	0.30%	0.30%	0.40%	0.20%
02/10/21	CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM	0.20%	0.00%	0.10%	0.00%
02/10/21	CPI YoY	1.50%	1.40%	1.40%	—
02/10/21	CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY	1.50%	1.40%	1.60%	—
02/10/21	CPI Index NSA	261.8	261.582	260.474	—
02/10/21	CPI Core Index SA	270.592	270.025	270.117	269.94
02/10/21	Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY	—	6.10%	4.90%	5.30%
02/10/21	Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY	—	4.00%	3.70%	4.10%
02/10/21	Wholesale Inventories MoM	0.10%	0.30%	0.10%	—
02/10/21	Wholesale Trade Sales MoM	—	1.20%	0.20%	0.30%
02/10/21	Monthly Budget Statement	-$157.5b	-$162.8b	-$32.6b	—
02/11/21	Initial Jobless Claims	760k	793k	779k	812k
02/11/21	Continuing Claims	4420k	4545k	4592k	4690k
02/11/21	Bloomberg Consumer Comfort	—	—	44.6	—
02/11/21	Mortgage Delinquencies	—	—	7.65%	—
02/11/21	MBA Mortgage Foreclosures	—	—	0.59%	—
02/12/21	Bloomberg Feb. United States Economic Survey
02/12/21	U. of Mich. Sentiment	80.8	—	79	—
02/12/21	U. of Mich. Current Conditions	89	—	86.7	—
02/12/21	U. of Mich. Expectations	76	—	74	—
02/12/21	U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation	—	—	3.00%	—
02/12/21	U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation	—	—	2.70%	—
02/12/21	Revisions: PPI

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