Treasury prices are lower this morning amid a more positive tone in risk markets to start the week. Most major overseas equity indices are in the green, and S&P 500 futures are up 10 points at the moment. There are no major headlines driving activity today, but there is a growing sense of optimism that U.S. and Chinese officials will be able to reach a trade agreement in the coming weeks. Federal budget negotiations, on the other hand, are not going so well according to recent reports. The temporary budget extension will expire on Friday, and the White House is said to still be considering emergency action powers for a border wall if Congress can’t reach a compromise.

This week’s economic calendar is headlined by the January CPI report on Wednesday, and there are several Fed leaders speaking this week. Fed Governor Michelle Bomwan is speaking about community banking at an ABA conference today, and Fed Chair Powell will participate in a rural poverty discussion in Mississippi tomorrow.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
Date TimeEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
2/11/2019Revisions: Consumer Price Index
2/12/2019NFIB Small Business Optimism103104.4104.4
2/12/2019JOLTS Job Openings68466888
2/12/2019Revisions: Producer Price Index
2/13/2019MBA Mortgage Applications-2.50%
2/13/2019CPI MoM0.10%-0.10%0.00%
2/13/2019CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.20%
2/13/2019CPI YoY1.50%1.90%
2/13/2019CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.10%2.20%
2/13/2019CPI Core Index SA260.027260.078
2/13/2019CPI Index NSA251.617251.233
2/13/2019Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY1.20%1.40%
2/13/2019Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY1.10%1.30%
2/13/2019Monthly Budget Statement-$11.0b-$204.9b
2/14/2019PPI Final Demand MoM0.10%-0.20%
2/14/2019PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%-0.10%
2/14/2019PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.20%0.00%
2/14/2019PPI Final Demand YoY2.10%2.50%
2/14/2019PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.50%2.70%
2/14/2019PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY2.70%2.80%
2/14/2019Initial Jobless Claims225k234k
2/14/2019Continuing Claims1740k1736k
2/14/2019Retail Sales Advance MoM0.10%0.20%
2/14/2019Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.00%0.20%
2/14/2019Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.40%0.50%
2/14/2019Retail Sales Control Group0.40%0.90%
2/14/2019Bloomberg Consumer Comfort58.2
2/14/2019Business Inventories0.20%0.60%
2/14/2019Mortgage Delinquencies4.47%
2/14/2019MBA Mortgage Foreclosures0.99%
2/15/2019Empire Manufacturing73.9
2/15/2019Import Price Index MoM-0.10%-1.00%
2/15/2019Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM-0.10%0.30%
2/15/2019Import Price Index YoY-1.60%-0.60%
2/15/2019Export Price Index MoM-0.10%-0.60%
2/15/2019Export Price Index YoY1.10%
2/15/2019Industrial Production MoM0.10%0.30%
2/15/2019Capacity Utilization78.70%78.70%
2/15/2019Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.00%1.10%
2/15/2019U. of Mich. Sentiment93.591.2
2/15/2019U. of Mich. Current Conditions108.8
2/15/2019U. of Mich. Expectations79.9
2/15/2019U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.70%
2/15/2019U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.60%
2/15/2019Net Long-term TIC Flows$37.6b
2/15/2019Total Net TIC Flows$31.0b