Treasury prices were lower overnight amid a better tone in risk markets (10yr yield as high as 2.89%), but the price action has largely reversed following the New York open. S&P 500 futures were up more than 30 points after European markets open, but it’s another choppy session (futures currently +15 points). The White House is expected to release its budget plan today, including a blueprint for more than $1 trillion of infrastructure spending, and many interest rate strategists are revising their forecasts higher given the budget’s negative impact on the federal deficit (i.e., more Treasury supply driving yields higher). As noted in Friday’s commentary, many are also pointing out the uniqueness of such deficit spending prior to a recession (and not during). This week’s economic calendar is headlined by the January CPI and retail sales reports on Wednesday.
Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
| Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 02/12 | Monthly Budget Statement | $51.0b | — | $51.3b | — |
| 02/13 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | 105.3 | — | 104.9 | — |
| 02/13 | Revisions: Producer Price Index | ||||
| 02/14 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 0.70% | — |
| 02/14 | CPI MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.10% | 0.20% |
| 02/14 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.30% | 0.20% |
| 02/14 | CPI YoY | 1.90% | — | 2.10% | — |
| 02/14 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 1.70% | — | 1.80% | — |
| 02/14 | CPI Index NSA | 247.575 | — | 246.524 | — |
| 02/14 | CPI Core Index SA | — | — | 254.426 | 254.398 |
| 02/14 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 02/14 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 0.50% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 02/14 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 0.30% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 02/14 | Retail Sales Control Group | 0.40% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 02/14 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | — | 0.70% | 0.90% |
| 02/14 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | — | 0.40% | 0.60% |
| 02/14 | Business Inventories | 0.30% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 02/15 | Empire Manufacturing | 17.9 | — | 17.7 | — |
| 02/15 | Initial Jobless Claims | 228k | — | 221k | — |
| 02/15 | Continuing Claims | 1927k | — | 1923k | — |
| 02/15 | PPI Final Demand MoM | 0.40% | — | -0.10% | — |
| 02/15 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | — | -0.10% | — |
| 02/15 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 02/15 | PPI Final Demand YoY | 2.50% | — | 2.60% | — |
| 02/15 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.00% | — | 2.30% | — |
| 02/15 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | — | — | 2.30% | — |
| 02/15 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | 21.5 | — | 22.2 | — |
| 02/15 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.90% | — |
| 02/15 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | 0.30% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 02/15 | Capacity Utilization | 78.00% | — | 77.90% | — |
| 02/15 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 54.4 | — |
| 02/15 | NAHB Housing Market Index | 72 | — | 72 | — |
| 02/15 | Total Net TIC Flows | — | — | $33.8b | — |
| 02/15 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | — | — | $57.5b | — |
| 02/16 | Import Price Index MoM | 0.60% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 02/16 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | 0.10% | — | -0.20% | — |
| 02/16 | Import Price Index YoY | 2.90% | — | 3.00% | — |
| 02/16 | Export Price Index MoM | 0.30% | — | -0.10% | — |
| 02/16 | Export Price Index YoY | — | — | 2.60% | — |
| 02/16 | Housing Starts | 1235k | — | 1192k | — |
| 02/16 | Housing Starts MoM | 3.60% | — | -8.20% | — |
| 02/16 | Building Permits | 1300k | — | 1302k | 1300k |
| 02/16 | Building Permits MoM | 0.00% | — | -0.10% | -0.20% |
| 02/16 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 95.4 | — | 95.7 | — |
| 02/16 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | 111.1 | — | 110.5 | — |
| 02/16 | U. of Mich. Expectations | 87.2 | — | 86.3 | — |
| 02/16 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.70% | — |
| 02/16 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.50% | — |