February 12, 2020 Headlines

A lack of negative headlines overnight is providing a modest boost to risk markets this morning. S&P 500 futures are up 0.45% ahead of the open, and Treasury yields are 2 bps higher on the day. The pace of new coronavirus cases continues to slow, but there is still concern in financial markets regarding the ultimate economic impact. Overall mortgage application activity rose 1.1% for the week ended February 7, according to the MBA index tracking such activity. New purchase applications fell 5.8% over the week, but refi applications were up 5%. Refi application activity is significantly higher to start the year amid a 25 bps decline in primary mortgage rates. The MBA refi applications index is up 30% over the last 3 weeks to the highest level since June 2013.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
2/12/2020MBA Mortgage Applications—1.10%5.00%—
2/12/2020Monthly Budget Statement-$10.0b—$8.7b—
2/13/2020CPI Core Index SA266.45—265.92265.832
2/13/2020CPI MoM0.20%—0.20%—
2/13/2020CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%—0.10%—
2/13/2020CPI YoY2.40%—2.30%—
2/13/2020CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.20%—2.30%—
2/13/2020CPI Index NSA257.86—256.97—
2/13/2020Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY——0.60%—
2/13/2020Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY——0.00%0.10%
2/13/2020Initial Jobless Claims210k—202k—
2/13/2020Continuing Claims1734k—1751k—
2/13/2020Bloomberg Consumer Comfort——66.5—
2/14/2020Import Price Index MoM-0.20%—0.30%—
2/14/2020Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM-0.10%—0.20%—
2/14/2020Import Price Index YoY0.20%—0.50%—
2/14/2020Export Price Index MoM-0.10%—-0.20%—
2/14/2020Export Price Index YoY-0.20%—-0.70%—
2/14/2020Retail Sales Advance MoM0.30%—0.30%—
2/14/2020Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.30%—0.70%—
2/14/2020Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.30%—0.50%—
2/14/2020Retail Sales Control Group0.30%—0.50%—
2/14/2020Industrial Production MoM-0.20%—-0.30%—
2/14/2020Capacity Utilization76.80%—77.00%—
2/14/2020Manufacturing (SIC) Production-0.10%—0.20%—
2/14/2020Bloomberg Feb. United States Economic Survey
2/14/2020Business Inventories0.10%—-0.20%—
2/14/2020U. of Mich. Sentiment99.4—99.8—
2/14/2020U. of Mich. Current Conditions114—114.4—
2/14/2020U. of Mich. Expectations90—90.5—
2/14/2020U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.40%—2.50%—
2/14/2020U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation——2.50%—
2/14/2020Revisions — Producer Price Index

 

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