February 12, 2020 Headlines

A lack of negative headlines overnight is providing a modest boost to risk markets this morning. S&P 500 futures are up 0.45% ahead of the open, and Treasury yields are 2 bps higher on the day. The pace of new coronavirus cases continues to slow, but there is still concern in financial markets regarding the ultimate economic impact. Overall mortgage application activity rose 1.1% for the week ended February 7, according to the MBA index tracking such activity. New purchase applications fell 5.8% over the week, but refi applications were up 5%. Refi application activity is significantly higher to start the year amid a 25 bps decline in primary mortgage rates. The MBA refi applications index is up 30% over the last 3 weeks to the highest level since June 2013.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
2/12/2020 MBA Mortgage Applications 1.10% 5.00%
2/12/2020 Monthly Budget Statement -$10.0b $8.7b
2/13/2020 CPI Core Index SA 266.45 265.92 265.832
2/13/2020 CPI MoM 0.20% 0.20%
2/13/2020 CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.20% 0.10%
2/13/2020 CPI YoY 2.40% 2.30%
2/13/2020 CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 2.20% 2.30%
2/13/2020 CPI Index NSA 257.86 256.97
2/13/2020 Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY 0.60%
2/13/2020 Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY 0.00% 0.10%
2/13/2020 Initial Jobless Claims 210k 202k
2/13/2020 Continuing Claims 1734k 1751k
2/13/2020 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 66.5
2/14/2020 Import Price Index MoM -0.20% 0.30%
2/14/2020 Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM -0.10% 0.20%
2/14/2020 Import Price Index YoY 0.20% 0.50%
2/14/2020 Export Price Index MoM -0.10% -0.20%
2/14/2020 Export Price Index YoY -0.20% -0.70%
2/14/2020 Retail Sales Advance MoM 0.30% 0.30%
2/14/2020 Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM 0.30% 0.70%
2/14/2020 Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas 0.30% 0.50%
2/14/2020 Retail Sales Control Group 0.30% 0.50%
2/14/2020 Industrial Production MoM -0.20% -0.30%
2/14/2020 Capacity Utilization 76.80% 77.00%
2/14/2020 Manufacturing (SIC) Production -0.10% 0.20%
2/14/2020 Bloomberg Feb. United States Economic Survey
2/14/2020 Business Inventories 0.10% -0.20%
2/14/2020 U. of Mich. Sentiment 99.4 99.8
2/14/2020 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 114 114.4
2/14/2020 U. of Mich. Expectations 90 90.5
2/14/2020 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 2.40% 2.50%
2/14/2020 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 2.50%
2/14/2020 Revisions — Producer Price Index


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