It’s another positive day for risk markets on reports of a U.S. budget deal and ongoing optimism toward U.S./China negotiations. Major Asian and European equity markets are higher (Nikkei +2.2%, Euro Stoxx +0.9%), and S&P 500 futures are up 0.7%. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell 3 points to 101.2 in January (103.0 expected). That’s the lowest reading since November 2016, and the index is down nearly 9 points from the all-time high set last August. Just 6% of survey respondents expect a better economy versus 16% in the December survey, and 23% of respondents reported availability of qualified labor as their top business problem.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group


Date TimeEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
2/11/2019Revisions: Consumer Price Index
2/12/2019NFIB Small Business OptimismJan103101.2104.4104.4
2/12/2019JOLTS Job OpeningsDec68466888
02/12/2019Revisions: Producer Price Index
2/13/2019MBA Mortgage Applications8-Feb-2.50%
2/13/2019CPI MoMJan0.10%-0.10%0.00%
2/13/2019CPI Ex Food and Energy MoMJan0.20%0.20%
2/13/2019CPI YoYJan1.50%1.90%
2/13/2019CPI Ex Food and Energy YoYJan2.10%2.20%
2/13/2019CPI Core Index SAJan260.574260.027260.078
2/13/2019CPI Index NSAJan251.617251.233
2/13/2019Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoYJan1.20%1.40%
2/13/2019Real Avg Hourly Earning YoYJan1.10%1.30%
2/13/2019Monthly Budget StatementDec-$11.0b-$204.9b
2/14/2019PPI Final Demand MoMJan0.10%-0.20%-0.10%
2/14/2019PPI Ex Food and Energy MoMJan0.20%-0.10%0.00%
2/14/2019PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoMJan0.20%0.00%
2/14/2019PPI Final Demand YoYJan2.10%2.50%
2/14/2019PPI Ex Food and Energy YoYJan2.50%2.70%
2/14/2019PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoYJan2.70%2.80%
2/14/2019Initial Jobless Claims9-Feb225k234k
2/14/2019Continuing Claims2-Feb1740k1736k
2/14/2019Retail Sales Advance MoMDec0.10%0.20%
2/14/2019Retail Sales Ex Auto MoMDec0.00%0.20%
2/14/2019Retail Sales Ex Auto and GasDec0.40%0.50%
2/14/2019Retail Sales Control GroupDec0.40%0.90%
2/14/2019Bloomberg Consumer Comfort10-Feb58.2
2/14/2019Business InventoriesNov0.20%0.60%
2/14/2019Mortgage Delinquencies4Q4.47%
2/14/2019MBA Mortgage Foreclosures4Q0.99%
2/15/2019Empire ManufacturingFeb73.9
2/15/2019Import Price Index MoMJan-0.10%-1.00%
2/15/2019Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoMJan-0.10%0.30%
2/15/2019Import Price Index YoYJan-1.60%-0.60%
2/15/2019Export Price Index MoMJan-0.10%-0.60%
2/15/2019Export Price Index YoYJan1.10%
2/15/2019Industrial Production MoMJan0.10%0.30%
2/15/2019Capacity UtilizationJan78.70%78.70%
2/15/2019Manufacturing (SIC) ProductionJan0.00%1.10%
2/15/2019U. of Mich. SentimentFeb P93.591.2
2/15/2019U. of Mich. Current ConditionsFeb P108.8
2/15/2019U. of Mich. ExpectationsFeb P79.9
2/15/2019U. of Mich. 1 Yr InflationFeb P2.70%
2/15/2019U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr InflationFeb P2.60%
2/15/2019Net Long-term TIC FlowsDec$37.6b
2/15/2019Total Net TIC FlowsDec$31.0b